핵심요약

• 2025년 4월 2일, 트럼프 대통령은 모든 국가에 10% 기본 관세와 85개국에 최대 50% 추가 관세를 부과했습니다.
• 미국 대법원은 이 조치를 무효화했지만, 90일 동안 10% 초과 관세를 유예하며 긴급 협상을 촉진했습니다.
• 8월 7일, 국가별 관세율이 최종 적용되었습니다.
• 글로벌 주식시장은 혼란에 빠졌으며, 중국과의 보복 관세 전쟁이 125%까지 치달았습니다.

도입

트럼프 대통령의 관세 정책은 글로벌 무역 구조를 근본적으로 변화시켰습니다. 투자자들은 이 새로운 경제 질서에서 어떤 국가와 산업이 혜택을 보고 있는지, 그리고 어떤 리스크가 존재하는지 파악해야 합니다. 특히 한국 기업들이 어떻게 대응하고 있는지에 주목해야 합니다.

본문 1: 글로벌 시장 반응과 협상 동향

트럼프 대통령의 관세 발표 후 글로벌 주식시장이 급락했습니다. 이는 시장 참여자들이 예상치 못한 전면적인 무역 전쟁에 대한 반응이었습니다. 특히 중국과의 보복 관세 전쟁은 125%까지 치달았으며, 이는 양국 간 무역 관계에 장기적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다. 유럽연합, 베트남, 영국 등 주요 무역 파트너들은 관세율을 낮추기 위한 협상을 서둘러 진행했습니다. 이는 각국의 수출 기업들이 관세 부담으로 인한 수익성 악화를 우려한 결과입니다.

본문 2: 한국 기업의 대응 전략

한국 기업들은 트럼프 정부의 관세 정책에 대해 신속하게 대응했습니다. 특히 반도체, 자동차, 전자제품 등 주요 수출 산업은 관세 부담으로 인한 수익성 악화를 우려해 생산 기반의 다각화를 추진했습니다. 일부 기업들은 미국 시장에서의 가격 경쟁력을 유지하기 위해 생산 비용을 절감하는 방안을 모색하고 있습니다. 또한, 중국의 시장 확대에 대한 관심도 높아지고 있습니다. 이는 한국 기업들이 글로벌 공급망의 재편에 적극적으로 대응하고 있음을 보여줍니다.

본문 3: 장기적인 경제적 영향

트럼프 정부의 관세 정책은 글로벌 무역 구조에 장기적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 큽니다. 특히 미국과 중국 간의 무역 분쟁은 글로벌 공급망의 재편을 가속화할 것으로 보입니다. 이는 각국 기업들이 새로운 무역 파트너를 찾고, 공급망을 재편하는 데 시간을 투자하게 만들 것입니다. 또한, 관세 부담으로 인한 인플레이션 압력도 증가할 전망입니다. 이는 글로벌 경제 성장에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

결론

트럼프 정부의 관세 정책은 글로벌 무역 구조를 근본적으로 변화시켰습니다. 투자자들은 이 새로운 경제 질서에서 어떤 국가와 산업이 혜택을 보고 있는지, 그리고 어떤 리스크가 존재하는지 파악해야 합니다. 특히 한국 기업들이 어떻게 대응하고 있는지에 주목해야 합니다. 향후 글로벌 공급망의 재편과 인플레이션 압력 증가에 대한 주목이 필요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQM2dOSWczS2JGS1B4RUVPZVItaExXbjlDOXJ5ZkFhYm5xLVh2Q3ZjcGIwdjIwajBCdzRxYjQyM1B3WDQ5QkRpWFpWTDd2VkhLSGprWDNqakYyMTcwV0Y4MXV4cGlDZ0lWNE4wWmZKTmFvOTFSUXEtc3NDQ0RpcmUxMUhBZzRxNkczYmVwLW5sRW5SVnFabE02U0JJb0swZHFFTHpyZ01B?oc=5

Who's winning under Trump's tariff policy? - DW

On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump shocked the world by announcing "economic independence" for the US, imposing sweeping tariffs on every country in the world. The US Supreme Court has since ruled against the unprecedented move, but the US president seems keen to double down .

DW analyzed trade data on the origin of US imports over the past year to find out: What have Trump's tariffs achieved? How is the rest of the world adjusting to this new economic order? And who, if anyone, is reaping the benefits?

Under the "Liberation Day" tariffs, the White House announced that every country — with a few exemptions due to sanctions and pre-existing trade deals — would be subject to a 10% baseline tariff on all goods they export to the US. Additionally, 85 countries that export more to the US than they import would be subject to higher tariffs of up to 50%.

"I don't think people expected the US administration to essentially declare a trade war on the entire world," says Haishi Li, economist at Hong Kong University whose research focuses on how tariffs and sanctions impact global trade.

Chaos broke out immediately, and global stock markets plummeted. While Trump insisted publicly that "big business is not worried about the tariffs," he announced a 90-day pause of all tariffs exceeding the baseline 10% rate on April 9.

During this pause, many trading partners such as the European Union , Vietnam and the United Kingdom hastily negotiated trade deals in the hope of bringing down the announced tariff rates. Negotiations with China remained tumultuous over the next few months, with rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs reaching up to 125%.

After multiple last-minute extensions to the 90-day tariff pause, country-specific rates finally came into effect on August 7, 2025.

Even before April, it was clear that changes were coming. "Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump announced upon entering his second term in January 2025.

US companies understood the message: Racing to fill warehouses before costs increased, they dramatically boosted their orders , bringing roughly 20% more goods into the country between January and March than the 2022–2024 average — equivalent to a plus of around $184 billion.

Anticipating higher tariffs on gold bullion, for instance, the US imported roughly 50 times its usual volume in early 2025, totaling around $72 billion — mostly from Switzerland, but also from an eclectic mix of new or unusual suppliers, including Uzbekistan, the Philippines, and Zimbabwe.

Big manufacturers across Asia also saw sharp increases, with Taiwan, Vietnam, and India all recording more exports to the US than usual.

The suspension period implemented on April 9 meant US importers had a three-month window in which to adjust to the new situation.

A study by Haishi Li and colleagues found that, overwhelmingly, companies attempted to shift their supply chains to countries with lower tariff rates . "Imports were like water, flowing from high-tariff countries to low-tariff countries," Li told DW.

And from no other country did US imports shift away more than from China , which faced by far the highest, and most volatile, tariff threats of any. The US imported goods worth $66 billion less from China between April and July 2025 than during the same period in previous years.

Canada , which was separately threatened with tariffs of 25%, also saw a significant drop in its exports to the US, to the tune of $24 billion. However, the country appears to have successfully compensated for this drop by adjusting its trade with other countries: Canada's overall exports in 2025 were only $1.6 billion lower compared to 2024

"The countries that benefited most from the tariff threat were the '10% countries,' such as Australia and Latin America countries," said Li.

But some high-tariff countries also saw huge import surges from US companies: Vietnam , Thailand and Taiwan faced some of the steepest "reciprocal tariffs" — 46%, 36%, and 34% respectively — yet the US recorded an additional $34 billion in imports from Taiwan alone between April and July.

"US importers tended to import from countries that were potential substitutes for China," Li said. Many manufacturers in Taiwan and Vietnam already had strong ties with US companies, reinforced during Trump's first-term trade dispute with China, which pushed production and supply chains toward these and other Asian economies.

So far, the tariffs have not brought production back to the US, says Alex Durante, senior economist at the US-based think tank Tax Foundation, which has tracked the domestic impact of the tariffs . "This past year has been quite bad for manufacturing and employment," he told DW. "In fact, the sectors that are growing tend to be ones relatively insulated from the tariffs because of exemptions like computers and AI-related products."

And while US importers shifted where they bought from, the total value of imports returned to normal soon after the "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2.

One figure that has risen sharply is US customs revenue. In 2025, the US Treasury collected $287 billion in customs duties and related taxes — roughly triple the amount in previous years. Early data suggests 2026 is on track to surpass even that total.

This revenue made up around 5% of all taxes collected in the US in 2025. Recent studies show that the higher tariffs have been almost fully paid by US importers, not foreign exporters .

As a result, US consumers have ended up bearing the brunt of the burden. "We estimated that the tariffs have effectively cost each US household around $1,000 in 2025," said Durante. "This is the cumulative effect of businesses having to raise prices, cut investment, cut employment, or reduce wages to adjust to the tariffs."

Internationally, the months since August 2025 have been marked by hastily brokered — and quickly unraveled — trade deals, alongside fresh rounds of tariff threats aimed at individual countries or product groups.

Global trade, economist Li says, has become a lot more uncertain: "If you ask academics, US policy makers, anyone, what will happen this year — I don't think anyone knows."

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQM2dOSWczS2JGS1B4RUVPZVItaExXbjlDOXJ5ZkFhYm5xLVh2Q3ZjcGIwdjIwajBCdzRxYjQyM1B3WDQ5QkRpWFpWTDd2VkhLSGprWDNqakYyMTcwV0Y4MXV4cGlDZ0lWNE4wWmZKTmFvOTFSUXEtc3NDQ0RpcmUxMUhBZzRxNkczYmVwLW5sRW5SVnFabE02U0JJb0swZHFFTHpyZ01B?oc=5