호르무즈 해협 통행 재개로 유가 전전쟁 수준으로 급락
Oil price falls to levels not seen since before Iran war - BBC
이란 전쟁 전 수준으로 유가 하락과 호르무즈 해협 교통 재개로 안정화 조짐이 보이지만, 명확한 방향성 신호는 없습니다.
핵심 요약
호르무즈 해협을 통한 선박 통행량이 284척 증가하며 유가가 전전쟁 수준까지 하락했습니다.
핵심요약
- 브렌트유 가격이 72.48달러로 전전쟁 수준까지 하락했다가 73.23달러로 상승했습니다.
- 6월 17일 MOU 체결 이후 호르무즈 해협을 통한 선박 통행량이 284척 증가했습니다.
- 전전쟁 평균 일일 138척 통행량보다 통행량이 여전히 낮습니다.
- 미국과 이란이 핵 프로그램 협상을 위한 60일 기간을 설정했습니다.
- 미국이 이란의 석유 수출에 대한 제재를 일부 해제했습니다.
도입
이 기사는 에너지 시장의 변동성과 지정학적 리스크가 어떻게 상호작용하는지를 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 유가 변동성이 다시 상승할 가능성을 고려해야 합니다. 또한, 호르무즈 해협의 통행량 증가와 미국이 이란에 대한 제재를 완화한 것이 시장 안정화에 미치는 영향을 평가해야 합니다.
본문 1: MOU 체결 이후의 유가 동향
6월 17일 미국과 이란이 MOU를 체결한 이후 유가가 급락한 것은 시장 불안정이 완화되었음을 시사합니다. 브렌트유 가격이 72.48달러로 하락한 것은 전전쟁 수준으로, 이는 시장 참여자들이 갈등이 완화되었음을 반영한 것입니다. 그러나 가격이 73.23달러로 상승한 것은 여전히 리스크가 존재함을 보여줍니다. 이는 투자자들이 단기적인 안도감을 느끼지만, 장기적인 불안정이 지속될 수 있음을 의미합니다.
본문 2: 호르무즈 해협 통행량의 영향
호르무즈 해협을 통한 선박 통행량이 284척 증가한 것은 에너지 수송의 재개로 인한 것입니다. 그러나 이는 전전쟁 평균 일일 138척 통행량보다 여전히 낮아, 완전히 정상화되지 않았음을 보여줍니다. 이는 에너지 수급에 대한 우려를 완화하지만, 여전히 리스크가 존재함을 의미합니다. 투자자들은 통행량이 완전히 정상화될 때까지 신중한 접근이 필요합니다.
본문 3: 지정학적 리스크의 지속 가능성
에코노미스트 인텔리전스 유닛의 프라티바 타커 regional director는 여전히 리스크가 존재한다고 지적했습니다. 이는 시장 불안정이 완화되었지만, 새로운 갈등이 발생할 가능성을 배제할 수 없음을 의미합니다. 투자자들은 지정학적 리스크를 지속적으로 모니터링해야 하며, 유가 변동성에 대한 대비가 필요합니다.
결론
이 기사는 MOU 체결 이후 유가가 하락하고 호르무즈 해협 통행량이 증가한 것을 보여주지만, 여전히 리스크가 존재함을 강조합니다. 투자자들은 단기적인 안도감에도 불구하고 장기적인 불안정을 고려해야 합니다. 지정학적 리스크를 지속적으로 모니터링하고, 유가 변동성에 대한 대비가 필요합니다.
Original Article
Oil price falls to levels not seen since before Iran war - BBC
The price of oil has fallen to levels not seen since before the Iran war as traffic through the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route gradually resumes.
Global benchmark Brent crude briefly fell below $72.48 (£55) a barrel, the price it was at the day before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, before edging up to $73.23.
Energy prices have been on a wild ride since Iran responded to the strikes by effectively closing the strait, a critical waterway for oil and gas shipments.
The cost of crude has been moving sharply lower since the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on 17 June which set out a 60-day period for negotiations on Tehran's nuclear programme and other measures to end the war.
However, Pratibha Thaker, regional director of Middle East and Africa at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said though oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, risks still remain.
"Markets are still watching the region closely, and any renewed tensions could quickly send oil higher again," she said.
Representatives from the two sides met in Switzerland last weekend for talks to end the war, which resulted in the US partially lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
The number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz has risen significantly since the MOU was signed, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.
Its latest data suggests 284 vessels have made the transit from 18 June, the day after the deal was signed, although that is is still well below the pre-conflict average of some 138 crossings each day.
The ships passing through the waterway in recent days include those carrying crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), fertiliser and other goods, Kpler told the BBC.
The US and Iran had also formed a "communication line" to prevent misunderstandings "with the aim of safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz", mediators Qatar and Pakistan said in a joint statement on Monday.
There has been a "tremendous shift" with far more ships using the strait in recent days, said Dimitris Maniatis, the chief executive of Marisks, a maritime risk advisory firm working with ships stuck in the region.
A limited number of ships can cross a northern passageway with the permission of Iranian authorities, he said.
The US navy has also provided guidance for vessels to travel through a southern route that is safe from mines and other obstacles that has been laid out since the war, Maniatis said.
But the number of ships crossing the strait is still below levels seen before the war, when it was used by more than 100 ships a day.
Hundreds of ships still appear to be waiting in the Gulf.
Fuel prices at the pump rose sharply when the Iran war began, and now the focus is on how quickly they will fall.
"On the back of the lowest oil price since before the Iran war started, drivers should see the average price of petrol fall below 150p [a litre] in the next week or so," said Simon Williams, head of policy at UK motoring group the RAC. He added the price of diesel "ought to go back under 160p.
Petrol peaked at 159.53p a litre on 28 May, according to the RAC, while diesel has fallen from a high of 191.54p on 15 April.
The average price of regular gasoline in the US has dropped to around $3.93 a gallon after reaching $4 a gallon in April, its highest since 2022, but is still well above pre-war levels.
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday ordered an investigation into major energy companies , accusing Shell, ExxonMobil and other firms of "gouging" drivers by not reducing fuel prices even as oil costs fell.
"Oil prices have come down so much and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison the way they should be," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
The American Petroleum Institute, which represents the oil and gas industry in the US, said fuel prices "don't move in lockstep with crude oil".
British energy firms have faced similar accusations of unfairly hiking petrol prices since the Iran war.
The UK competition watchdog said last month that there was no widespread evidence of this, adding that average profit margins were "broadly unchanged" between February and March.