핵심요약

• 폴리마켓, 스페이스X IPO 평가액 2조~2.5조 달러 사이일 확률 37%
• 칼시, 오픈AI 올해 IPO 가능성 92%로 높게 전망
• DXYZ 27%, VCX 18% 급등하며 관련 ETF 열풍
• 도이체방크, IPO 평가액이 버크셔 해서웨이 연간 매출과 비교해 과대 평가될 수 있다는 우려

도입

스페이스X, 오픈AI, 앤트로픽 등 혁신적 테크 기업들의 IPO가 임박하면서 시장 분위기가 급변하고 있습니다. 특히, 이 기업들의 예상 평가액이 테슬라와 메타 플랫폼스를 뛰어넘을 것이라는 예측이 나오면서 투자자들의 관심도가 급증하고 있습니다. 이 같은 동향은 테크 분야의 성장 가능성을 재점화할 수 있지만, 동시에 과대 평가될 위험도 동반하고 있습니다.

본문 1: 예측 시장과 IPO 예상 평가액의 해석

폴리마켓의 데이터에 따르면, 스페이스X의 IPO 평가액이 2조2.5조 달러 사이일 확률이 37%로 가장 높게 예측되고 있습니다. 이는 스페이스X의 최신 민간 평가액 1.25조 달러에 비해 약 두 배에 가까운 수치로, 시장 기대치가 매우 높은 수준임을 보여줍니다. 특히, 2.5조3조 달러 사이일 확률이 22%로 두 번째로 높게 예측되는 점에서, 스페이스X의 성장 가능성에 대한 신뢰도가 높다는 것을 알 수 있습니다. 이러한 예측은 스페이스X가 우주 산업의 선두주자로서의 위치를 확고히 하려는 전략과 무관하지 않을 것입니다.

본문 2: 테크 기업 IPO의 시장 영향과 리스크

오픈AI와 앤트로픽의 IPO 가능성도 주목받고 있습니다. 칼시 트레이더들은 오픈AI의 올해 IPO 가능성을 92%로 높게 전망하고 있으며, 앤트로픽의 경우 69%로 보고 있습니다. 이러한 예측은 인공지능 분야의 성장 가능성에 대한 투자자들의 기대감이 높다는 것을 반영합니다. 그러나 도이체방크는 이 같은 예측이 버크셔 해서웨이의 연간 매출 3,500억 달러와 비교해 과대 평가될 수 있다는 우려를 제기하고 있습니다. 이는 테크 기업의 평가액이 실제 수익이나 현금 흐름보다 높게 형성될 수 있다는 점에서, 투자자들에게 주의가 필요함을 시사합니다.

본문 3: 테크 ETF의 급등과 투자 전략

DXYZ와 VCX 같은 테크 ETF가 급등하면서, 투자자들은 간접적으로 테크 기업에 투자할 수 있는 기회를 찾고 있습니다. 특히, DXYZ는 목요일 27% 급등했고 VCX는 18% 상승했습니다. 이는 테크 기업들의 IPO가 임박하면서, 투자자들이 관련 ETF를 통해 포트폴리오를 조정하고 있다는 것을 보여줍니다. 그러나, 이러한 급등은 일시적인 현상일 수 있으므로, 장기적인 투자 전략을 세우기 위해서는 신중한 분석이 필요합니다.

결론

스페이스X, 오픈AI, 앤트로픽 등의 IPO가 임박하면서 테크 분야의 성장 가능성에 대한 기대감이 높아지고 있습니다. 그러나, 평가액이 과대 평가될 가능성도 존재하므로, 투자자들은 신중한 접근이 필요합니다. 향후 이 기업들의 실제 실적과 시장 반응을 주시하면서, 장기적인 투자 전략을 수립하는 것이 중요할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/dxyz-vcx-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-fever-tsla-meta-valuations/cZgRc0jReoT?.tsrc=rss

DXYZ, VCX Stocks Catch IPO Fever: Traders Chase SpaceX, OpenAI And Anthropic For Valuations Rivaling TSLA, META

Polymarket traders currently see the highest odds for a SpaceX IPO valuation between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.Kalshi traders currently place 92% odds on an OpenAI IPO this year and 69% odds on an Anthropic IPO.Deutsche Bank said projected IPO valuations appear stretched compared with Berkshire Hathaway, which generated over $350 billion in annual revenue last year.Retail investors are piling into Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) and Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) as prediction market traders bet upcoming IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could debut at valuations rivaling or surpassing Tesla and Meta Platforms.On Thursday, DXYZ surged 27%, while VCX jumped 18%.Traders Bet On Massive SpaceX, OpenAI And Anthropic DebutsThe speculation accelerated after SpaceX officially filed to go public on Nasdaq earlier this week, while OpenAI could also reportedly confidentially file for an IPO as soon as Friday. The excitement quickly spilled into publicly traded funds offering indirect exposure to late-stage private tech firms, particularly DXYZ and VCX, both of which hold stakes in the companies planning to go public.Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in a blockbuster SpaceX IPO that could rank among the largest public debuts in history. According to Polymarket, the single most likely outcome for SpaceX’s first-day closing valuation currently falls between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion, with traders assigning a 37% odds to that range. Another 22% probability is attached to a valuation between $2.5 trillion and $3 trillion, while markets place 29% odds on a debut between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.Traders are also assigning smaller but still notable odds of 8% that SpaceX could finish above a $3 trillion valuation on its first trading day. The estimates imply a massive jump from SpaceX’s most recent private valuation of $1.25 trillion earlier this year.Prediction traders have also become increasingly bullish on OpenAI and Anthropic. Kalshi traders are assigning 92% odds that the ChatGPT owner goes public this year. Meanwhile, Anthropic, creator of the Claude AI platform, currently carries about 69% odds of an IPO this year on Kalshi. Polymarket traders are also pricing in strong odds that OpenAI and Anthropic will debut at above-trillion-dollar valuations.Polymarket currently places 65% odds that OpenAI closes its first trading day above a $1.4 trillion valuation, while Anthropic traders place nearly 50% odds on a debut above $1.8 trillion. If realized, the implied valuations would place the companies firmly alongside some of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, including Tesla and Meta, which have valuations of about $1.5 trillion. DXYZ, VCX Turn Into AI, Space IPO BetsThe growing IPO excitement has made DXYZ one of retail traders’ preferred indirect bets on SpaceX. SpaceX currently represents Destiny Tech100’s largest portfolio position at 16.2% of assets, significantly larger than any other holding inside the fund.As of the end of last year, Destiny Tech100 reported net asset value growth of over 210% from the previous year, while total portfolio fair value hit $434 million. The portfolio later expanded further after adding exposure tied to Anthropic, CHAOS Industries and aerospace startup Hermeus. The fund also maintains exposure to Plaid through a single-asset SPV structure tied to future liquidity events.Meanwhile, VCX has emerged as a more AI-heavy retail proxy, with Anthropic accounting for 20.7% of the portfolio, followed by OpenAI at 9.9% and SpaceX at about 5%. AI-related investments make up nearly 44% of VCX’s portfolio exposure overall.Wall Street Questions Valuation DisconnectDespite the recent IPO hype from private tech firms, some analysts warn that the projected IPO valuations appear disconnected from current business fundamentals, particularly compared with established companies like Berkshire Hathaway, which currently carries a market cap of about $1 trillion. Deutsche Bank noted that Berkshire generated over $350 billion in annual revenue last year, far exceeding the estimated revenue of many anticipated IPO candidates being discussed at similar or even higher valuations, CNBC noted. SpaceX generated about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, while OpenAI reportedly generated an estimated $13.1 billion.Anthropic’s financials remain less transparent, although reports this week suggested the company could be nearing profitability, with annualized revenue of $11 billion. SpaceX and OpenAI also remain unprofitable despite the massive valuations being projected by traders.Deutsche Bank said that concerns about the market’s ability to absorb multiple mega-IPOs may be overstated, noting that the U.S. stock market is now worth $70 trillion, about five times larger in nominal terms than during the dot-com peak, when annual IPOs averaged nearly 500 listings, compared with 120 per year this decade. How Do Retail Traders Feel About DXYZ And VCX?On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around DXYZ was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment for VCX remained ‘bearish’ with ‘low’ message volume.One user said, “$DXYZ Every dip will be bought for 3 weeks. One more day above $51 pushes the topend to $125-$130. It’s a moving target. Raise your aim. Punch through $70.67, massive air pocket to $103.07.”https://stocktwits.com/jaydilks/message/654123436Another user said, “$VCX Been a great ride so far from $210. Slowly grinding higher on the 12 hr chart. Price target for me is $350, but might get a quick wick to $400.”https://stocktwits.com/TraderGOAT/message/654113419Over the past year, VCX has surged 2,225%, while DXYZ is up 56%. For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.Read Next: HIMS Stock Extends 3-Day Rally: Hims & Hers Targets GLP-1 Gold Rush In Canada After Novo Nordisk Patent Expiry

Source: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/dxyz-vcx-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-fever-tsla-meta-valuations/cZgRc0jReoT?.tsrc=rss