2027년까지 스페이스X 주가 50% 급락 가능성
Prediction: SpaceX Stock Could Crash by 50% by 2027
2027년까지 50% 급락 가능성 예측으로 과도한 평가 우려가 주된 이유입니다. 현재 주가 대비 높은 P/S 비율을 고려할 때, 단기적으로는 하락 압력이 예상됩니다.
핵심 요약
스페이스X는 135달러 상장으로 시작해 현재 185달러까지 상승했지만, 125라는 높은 P/S 비율이 주목받고 있습니다.
핵심요약
- 135달러 IPO 후 현재 185달러까지 주가 상승
- 2035년 글로벌 우주 산업 1.8조 달러 전망
- P/S 비율 125로 S&P 500 평균 3.7 대비 현저히 높음
- 스타링크 160개국 1200만 명 서비스 중
- 우크라이나 군사 지원 계약 체결
도입
스페이스X의 급격한 주가 상승은 투자자에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 특히 135달러 IPO 후 185달러까지 오르는 과정에서 과대평가 우려가 제기되고 있는 만큼, 회사의 실적과 시장 전망을 면밀히 분석할 필요가 있습니다. 이 분석은 스페이스X의 현재 상태와 향후 전망을 종합적으로 평가하기 위한 것입니다.
본문 1: 과대평가 우려
스페이스X의 P/S 비율 125는 S&P 500 평균의 3.7에 비해 현저히 높습니다. 이는 시장이 스페이스X가 폭발적인 수익 성장과 높은 마진을 달성할 것으로 기대하고 있음을 반영합니다. 그러나 이러한 높은 평가에는 위험 요소가 존재하며, 특히 우주 산업의 성장 속도와 경쟁 환경에 따라 실적이 부합하지 않을 경우 주가 하락 가능성이 있습니다. 따라서 투자자는 스페이스X의 높은 P/S 비율을 고려할 때 신중한 접근이 필요합니다.
본문 2: 우주 산업 성장 전망
글로벌 우주 산업은 2035년까지 1.8조 달러 규모로 성장할 전망입니다. 스페이스X는 로켓 발사, 스타링크, 군사 계약 등 다양한 분야에서 강점을 보이고 있으며, 이는 회사의 장기적인 성장 가능성을 뒷받침합니다. 그러나 우주 산업의 성장 속도와 경쟁 환경에 따라 스페이스X의 실적이 예상과 다를 수 있는 점도 고려해야 합니다. 따라서 투자자는 스페이스X의 성장 전망을 평가할 때 이러한 요소를 종합적으로 고려해야 합니다.
결론
스페이스X는 135달러 IPO 후 185달러까지 주가 상승하며 높은 평가 수혜를 받았습니다. 그러나 P/S 비율 125와 같은 과대평가 우려가 제기되고 있어, 투자자는 스페이스X의 실적과 시장 전망을 면밀히 분석할 필요가 있습니다. 향후 스페이스X의 주가 동향을 주목할 필요가 있으며, 특히 우주 산업의 성장 속도와 경쟁 환경에 따른 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링해야 합니다.
Original Article
Prediction: SpaceX Stock Could Crash by 50% by 2027
On June 12, Elon Musk's iconic space industrial giant, Space Exploration Technologies ( SPCX 3.44% ) , also known as SpaceX, went public at $135 per share -- representing an initial market cap of $1.77 trillion. Over the following days, shares continued to grow before the stock settled at a price tag of roughly $185 at the time of writing.
The excitement probably has something to do with Musk's success with previous business ventures like PayPal and Tesla . That said, good vibes and Musk's (mostly) good track record are not enough to explain SpaceX becoming the sixth-most-valuable company in the world. With this in mind, let's dig deeper into the pros and cons of SpaceX to find out why its soaring shares could rapidly fall back down to earth by the end of the year.
On the surface, SpaceX is an extremely attractive business. According to analysts at McKinsey & Company, the global space industry could soar to $1.8 trillion by 2035. And SpaceX is able to tap into this opportunity through various angles, including rocket launches to transport payloads to space, broadband internet, and other satellite-based services.
The company has established a technological lead with its large reusable rockets. And its internet service, Starlink, already boasts over 12 million customers across 160 countries. It also plays a role in military contracting, most notably helping the Ukrainian armed forces maintain connectivity and unjammable communication systems during their war with Russia.
That said, a good company won't necessarily make a good investment if its valuation is out of whack. And right now, SpaceX trades for an otherworldly price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 125 compared to the S&P 500 's average of 3.7. Tesla's relatively high P/S of 14 looks cheap in comparison.
Usually, an elevated P/S ratio suggests the market believes a company will soon generate explosive, high-margin revenue growth that will translate to outsize profits. And while SpaceX's launch service and internet businesses are attractive, they don't seem capable of delivering enough expansion to justify such a high valuation by themselves.
SpaceX's total sales grew by 33% year over year to $18.7 billion in 2025, which is far from the triple-digit growth rate that would justify a P/S ratio of 125. Clearly, the stock's valuation now has very little to do with its established and profitable space business. Instead, SpaceX has become a highly speculative bet on generative artificial intelligence (AI).
The company believes AI is a $22.7 trillion long-term opportunity. But investors should be skeptical. For starters, SpaceX's AI division (which is mainly comprised of the recently acquired xAI subsidiary) doesn't seem particularly impressive compared to the competition.
According to data from Sensor Tower, the company's flagship large language model (LLM), Grok, has a market share below 5%. This number is far behind industry leaders ChatGPT and Gemini, which boast market shares of 46.4% and 27.7%.
While the LLM market is notoriously speculative, it offers the potential for high-margin growth through licensing APIs or potentially creating an artificial "super intelligence" that would help justify SpaceX's inflated valuation. SpaceX is instead focusing on the much less glamorous AI infrastructure opportunity, which involves renting out data center capacity to other businesses.
This month, the company signed a deal with Alphabet , which will involve offering computing capacity for $920 million monthly. But while this is great in the short term, hyperscalers will ultimately seek to build out their own data center capacity instead of relying on third parties indefinitely. SpaceX will also be saddled with depreciation and other operating costs that will put pressure on long-term margins and profitability.
Shares could decline by 50% or more
While SpaceX is a good business, its valuation is detached from reality. And it's only a matter of time before the hype fades and investors start looking at the numbers. Shares could decline by 50% or more before the end of the year. And potential investors should stay far away.