미국-이란 협상, 파키스탄의 외교적 성공으로
US-Iran deal: Pakistan's diplomatic masterstroke? - dw.com
파키스탄의 미국-이란 협상 중재는 장기적인 외교적 성과이지만 단기 시장에는 큰 영향을 미치지 않을 것으로 보입니다.
핵심 요약
2025년 5월 파키스탄의 최고 군사 지휘관과 총리가 이란을 방문한 것이 미국과 이란 간의 협상에 결정적인 역할을 했습니다.
핵심요약
- 2025년 5월 파키스탄의 최고 군사 지휘관과 총리가 이란을 방문하여 미국-이란 협상 촉진
- 파키스탄은 테헤란, 워싱턴, 카타르, 사우디아라비아, 터키와의 관계를 활용하여 외교적 성공 달성
- 전문가들은 파키스탄이 미국과 이란 사이에서 균형을 유지하면서 중국과의 강력한 관계를 유지한 점을 강조
- 협상의 장기적인 영향은 계속되는 협상의 지속 가능성에 달려 있습니다
도입
이 기사는 파키스탄이 미국과 이란 간의 협상을 성공적으로 중재한 과정을 상세히 설명하고 있습니다. 이는 파키스탄이 지정학적 긴장 속에서 외교적 역량을 어떻게 활용했는지 보여주며, 투자자들에게 지역 안정화에 대한 새로운 통찰력을 제공합니다. 특히, 파키스탄이 다양한 국가와의 관계를 균형 있게 유지하면서도 핵심적 역할을 수행한 점이 주목할 만합니다.
본문 1: 파키스탄의 외교적 역량 강화
파키스탄은 2025년 5월 최고 군사 지휘관과 총리가 이란을 방문한 것을 계기로 미국과 이란 간의 협상 중재 역할을 수행했습니다. 이 방문은 파키스탄이 테헤란과 워싱턴 간의 관계를 조정하는 데 중요한 계기가 되었습니다. 전문가들은 파키스탄이 카타르, 사우디아라비아, 터키와 같은 지역 파트너들과의 관계를 활용하여 외교적 성공을 달성했다고 평가합니다. 이는 파키스탄이 지정학적 긴장 속에서 다양한 국가와의 관계를 균형 있게 유지하면서도 핵심적 역할을 수행할 수 있음을 보여줍니다.
본문 2: 미국과 이란 간의 협상의 지속 가능성
미국과 이란 간의 협상의 장기적인 영향은 계속되는 협상의 지속 가능성에 달려 있습니다. 전문가들은 협상이 성공적으로 완결될 경우, 지역 안정화가 촉진될 가능성을 제기하고 있습니다. 그러나 협상이 실패할 경우, 파키스탄이 중재 역할을 수행한 데 대한 신뢰도가 떨어질 수 있다는 점도 고려해야 합니다. 이는 파키스탄이 향후 외교적 노력을 어떻게 지속할지에 대한 새로운 통찰력을 제공합니다.
본문 3: 파키스탄의 경제적 전망
파키스탄이 미국과 이란 간의 협상을 성공적으로 중재한 것은 경제적 측면에서도 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히, 파키스탄이 중국과의 관계를 강화하면서 경제적 협력 가능성이 확대될 수 있습니다. 그러나, 지정학적 긴장 속에서 파키스탄이 다양한 국가와의 관계를 균형 있게 유지하는 것이 쉽지 않을 수 있다는 점도 고려해야 합니다. 이는 파키스탄이 향후 경제적 성장을 위한 전략을 수립하는 데 중요한 통찰력을 제공합니다.
결론
파키스탄이 미국과 이란 간의 협상을 성공적으로 중재한 것은 지정학적 긴장 속에서 외교적 역량을 어떻게 활용할 수 있는지를 보여주는 중요한 사례입니다. 이는 파키스탄이 다양한 국가와의 관계를 균형 있게 유지하면서도 핵심적 역할을 수행할 수 있음을 입증했습니다. 향후, 파키스탄이 협상의 지속 가능성을 어떻게 확보할지에 대한 관심이 집중될 전망입니다.
Original Article
US-Iran deal: Pakistan's diplomatic masterstroke? - dw.com
The US-Iran deal, serving as foundation for the ongoing talks in Switzerland , marks a crucial diplomatic achievement for Pakistan, perhaps the most significant in the country's modern history.
"Pakistan was not only able to effectively leverage its relations with Tehran and growing closeness to Washington but also its network of regional partners like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey," Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, told DW.
"It gave Pakistan more diplomatic weight and international support going into the mediation role," she added.
Islamabad also boasts close ties with China — not an easy feat on a continent increasingly shaped by the Washington-Beijing rivalry .
"Pakistan's patient diplomacy was critical in getting the US-Iran deal across the finish line, though its long-term impact will depend on the agreement's durability as difficult negotiations continue," Elizabeth Threlkeld, South Asia director at the Washington-based Stimson Center, told DW.
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She lauded Islamabad for balancing ties with the US and Iran while also keeping key Gulf partners and China onboard, and "helping to find formulations that worked for all sides."
But good working relationships with regional and global powers were just a starting point. The Pakistani government has been pursuing a hands-on diplomatic strategy towards Tehran, with Pakistan's most senior military commander Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif both visiting Iran in May 2025, just weeks before the short-lived conflict with Israel that ended with the US bombing Iran's nuclear facilities.
"Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif had both traveled to Iran that summer. That is when, in my view, the Trump administration first began to recognize that the Pakistanis could be a viable and trustworthy mediator," Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at Washington-based Atlantic Council, told DW.
Army chief Munir, in particular, seem to have left a positive impression on Donald Trump , with the US president repeatedly praising him as a "great fighter," "an exceptional human being" and "my favorite field marshal."
The Pakistani leaders had much to lose with the US-Israel conflict with Iran spiraling into an all-out regional war. Pakistan shares a border with Iran and relies heavily on Gulf trade routes, so prolonged instability could trigger refugee flows, economic disruption, and security challenges along its western frontier.
Once the US and Israel launched new airstrikes against Iran in late February , Sharif's government began engaging in an intensive diplomatic effort involving shuttle diplomacy, direct contacts with Washington and Tehran, and coordination with regional capitals.
While Munir and Trump discussed the conflict by telephone on March 22, Prime Minister Sharif spoke to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian on the following day. Sharif then floated Islamabad as a possible destination for direct talks between Washington and Tehran.
In early April, Pakistan announced the initial ceasefire between the two warring parties, and then hosted delegations led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf for a marathon negotiation session on April 11.
The Pakistani government repeatedly reasserted its mediator role in the following months , despite the peace talks eventually moving to Switzerland. With the peace process in jeopardy over the fighting in Lebanon, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited Tehran twice last week.
Many voices have speculated that Pakistan could only act as a mediator due to strong support from China. Beijing has ties to Tehran and needs stability in the Gulf to ensure energy imports and regional trade routes remained open. Chinese officials have publicly backed Islamabad's diplomatic initiative and encouraged efforts to prevent escalation.
"I do think the role of China and the Gulf States is critical here. One could and should give credit to Pakistan for its role as a prime mediator, but it could not do this alone. That was never going to be the case," asserted Kugelman.
"When (Pakistan's Foreign Minister) Ishaq Dar went to Beijing several weeks ago, that led to this joint resolution for peace. It was at that moment that China formally signed on to the Pakistan-led peace process, and that meant that the Iranians knew that China was buying into this process. China leverages Iran in a big way because of its economic clout, because of the energy it imports from Iran, and so on," underlined Kugelman.
Analyst Farwa Aamer says China did not play an overt role in Pakistan's diplomatic effort, but warns that Beijing's influence cannot be overlooked.
"Pakistani leadership kept China in the loop throughout, and Qatar was another prominent but influential player in the process," she said.
Countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia also have strong incentives to avoid a prolonged conflict that threatened energy markets and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatar, in particular, has now positioned itself as a second mediator in the conflict, with its officials attending the US-Iran talks at the luxury Swiss resort of Bürgenstock.
Diplomatic sources familiar with the negotiations describe Pakistan's role as extending beyond mere mediation between the warring parties.
"Pakistani officials helped identify areas of compromise, coordinated draft proposals, and worked to keep channels open during several moments when negotiations appeared close to collapse and maintained contact with both sides throughout the crisis," a senior diplomatic source in Islamabad told DW.
Atlantic Council analyst Kugelman agrees that Pakistan was not simply a messenger in the US-Iran negotiations, pointing to army chief Munir and his direct involvement in Islamabad talks.