핵심요약

• 미국은 식량 공급에 대해 국가 비상사태를 선포했습니다.
• 사우디아라비아는 2025년 첫 5개월 동안 미국 암모늄 인산염 수입의 55%를 공급했습니다.
• 이란의 해협 통제는 중동 지역의 석유 및 비료 수출 경로를 차단하는 지정학적 위험으로 작용했습니다.
• 농업에 필수적인 인산염 비료의 공급망이 전쟁으로 인해 중단되면서 미국 식량 안보가 위협받았습니다.

도입

본 기사는 이란 전쟁과 같은 지정학적 갈등이 어떻게 필수 농업 자재인 인산염 비료의 글로벌 공급망에 영향을 미치고, 최종적으로 미국 식량 안보에 위협을 가하는지를 분석합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크가 원자재 가격과 산업 생산 비용에 미치는 연쇄 효과를 이해하고, 공급망 취약성을 기반으로 한 장기적인 상품 시장의 변동성을 예측해야 합니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 갈등과 공급망 취약성

이란과 미국의 전쟁은 단순히 지역 분쟁을 넘어, 글로벌 에너지 및 핵심 자원의 운송 통로인 호르무즈 해협의 통제권을 둘러싼 지정학적 갈등으로 확대되었습니다. 이 해협은 중동의 석유, 가스, 석유화학 제품 및 비료가 전 세계로 이동하는 주요 동맥입니다. 이처럼 지정학적 충돌이 발생할 경우, 운송로가 차단되거나 위험해지면서 생산된 자재의 흐름이 즉각적으로 마비될 수 있습니다. 기사에서 언급된 바와 같이, 사우디아라비아의 마아덴(Ma’aden)이 페르시아만과 홍해를 잇는 라스 알-카이르 항구를 통해 인산염을 수출할 때, 이 통로의 불안정성은 생산된 비료가 최종 소비 시장에 도달하는 과정에서 심각한 병목 현상을 초래했습니다. 이는 지정학적 위험이 물리적인 공급망의 취약성으로 직결됨을 보여줍니다.

본문 2: 농업 생산 비용과 경제적 파급 효과

인산염 비료는 옥수수, 대두, 밀과 같은 주요 작물이 상업적 규모로 재배되기 위해 필수적인 산업 농업의 핵심 요소입니다. 미국 농부들은 연중 절반 이상을 가을부터 이른 봄 사이에 인산염 비료를 사용합니다. 따라서 비료 공급의 중단이나 비용 증가는 단순한 물류 문제를 넘어, 농업 생산 비용의 직접적인 상승으로 이어집니다. 비료 공급망의 불안정성은 농가 수익성에 직접적인 타격을 주며, 이는 결국 미국 내 식량 가격 상승 압력으로 작용합니다. 또한, 이 사태는 미국 정부가 모로코산 인산염 비료에 대한 관세를 일시적으로 유예하는 조치를 취하게 만든 배경이 되며, 이는 국제 상품 시장의 정책적 개입이 지정학적 상황에 의해 촉발될 수 있음을 시사합니다.

본문 3: 장기적 리스크와 시장 전망

이러한 사건은 단기적인 공급망 충격을 넘어 장기적인 글로벌 상품 시장의 구조적 리스크를 강조합니다. 비료와 에너지 같은 기초 원자재의 공급이 지정학적 통제에 얼마나 취약한지를 보여주며, 향후 글로벌 공급망은 지정학적 안정성에 크게 의존하게 될 것입니다. 장기적으로는 각국이 자국 내 핵심 산업 자원의 안정적 공급을 확보하기 위해 대체 공급 경로를 구축하거나 자국 내 생산을 강화하는 방향으로 정책을 전환할 가능성이 높습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 지정학적 위험 지표를 상품 가격 예측에 통합하고, 공급망 다각화에 성공한 기업들에 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 이는 단순한 단기적 충격이 아닌, 글로벌 경제 시스템의 근본적인 취약성을 반영하는 것입니다.

결론

결론적으로, 이란 전쟁과 같은 지정학적 사건은 비료 공급망의 취약성을 극명하게 드러내며, 이는 미국 식량 안보에 직접적인 위협이 되고 있습니다. 향후 글로벌 상품 시장은 지정학적 변동성에 더욱 민감하게 반응할 것이며, 공급망 안정성을 확보하기 위한 다각화 노력이 더욱 중요해질 전망입니다. 투자 관점에서 볼 때, 지정학적 리스크를 헤지(Hedge)할 수 있는 자원 및 농업 관련 기업들의 가치 평가에 신중을 기해야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPLXVYOF9saEF4THNocXdKam1lSV8tRnlWZE9iZVFZVGZ2N2JfTjlJaTZJTDVtZjhzZ05Tb2lWWG80LWhDaFJCZk96aThCb1Q4aWRSNDN0TFAtVlZWb2xOWEtvYk9tU1UyZHdWZlZ4cnFGei1UTEN1ZVZOa19LVERxejhpRHM2UFpDeWlqem5QMVRXRGd1TGxMSHQ3S2s?oc=5

Fertilizer emergency shows cost of U.S. war on Iran - Struggle-La Lucha

The White House says the war on Iran is winding down. On June 29, it declared a national emergency over the U.S. food supply.

The proclamation, published in the Federal Register on July 2, temporarily suspends duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer — duties imposed in 2021 to generate profits for Mosaic Co., the Florida-based phosphate monopoly, by keeping lower-cost imports out of the U.S. market.

Industrial agriculture depends on phosphate fertilizer. Corn, soybeans and wheat do not grow at commercial scale without it, and U.S. farmers apply more than half of the year’s phosphate between fall and early spring.

The proclamation blames “conflicts in fertilizer-producing regions” and says the largest foreign source of U.S. phosphate fertilizer “has experienced supply chain disruption.” The White House does not name the source or the conflict. Both have names.

The source points to Saudi Arabia. In the first five months of 2025, Saudi Arabia supplied nearly 55% of U.S. ammonium phosphate imports. That fertilizer is produced by Ma’aden, the Saudi state mining company, and shipped from Ras al-Khair — a port on the Persian Gulf, behind the Strait of Hormuz.

When Iran shut the strait after the U.S. attack of Feb. 28, Ma’aden’s phosphate exports through Ras al-Khair were trapped with everything else. The company was forced onto a costly truck route across the peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Washington launched its war of aggression against Iran on Feb. 28 to overthrow Iran’s government, break its sovereignty and retake control of Iranian oil — control Washington lost when the 1979 Iranian Revolution overthrew the U.S.-installed puppet shah and broke the grip of U.S. and other Western oil monopolies over Iran’s oil. Iran answered by choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the artery through which Gulf oil, gas, petrochemicals and fertilizer reach the world. Washington’s war produced the choke, and the choke has now reached the U.S. food supply. The fertilizer emergency is the war’s invoice, arriving at the U.S. farm gate.

Five years of duties, reversed in a day

The duties now suspended were imposed in 2021 at the request of Mosaic Co., the Florida-based phosphate monopoly, to shut Moroccan and Russian fertilizer out of the U.S. market. A Texas A&M study found the duties raised the price of the main phosphate fertilizer nearly 29% and cost U.S. crop producers an estimated $6.9 billion between 2021 and 2025. For five years the capitalist state held that line: farmers paid, Mosaic profited, and successive administrations defended the arrangement.

It took one war to reverse it. With Saudi supply trapped behind a blockaded strait and fertilizer prices climbing into planting decisions for the 2027 crop year, the duties protecting Mosaic’s margins became a threat to the system’s food supply — and the state dropped them overnight.

The tariff wall stood as long as it served monopoly profit and fell the moment it endangered the system. Crop producers paid the $6.9 billion. Workers and small farmers will not be reimbursed for the higher prices passed down the line.

The oil price says the war is over. The storage tanks say otherwise.

The oil market is telling a story of peace. Brent crude fell to about $72 a barrel by July 3 — down roughly 24% in a month, back to where it stood before the first U.S. bombs fell on Feb. 28. The business press credits recovering tanker traffic and “progress” in the Doha talks, where Qatari and Pakistani mediators are shuttling between U.S. and Iranian officials.

The government’s own energy forecast tells a different story. The Energy Information Administration’s June 9 outlook, built on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed to most shipping in the near term, forecast Brent averaging $105 a barrel through June and July. The EIA reported that West Asian producers cut output by more than 11 million barrels a day in May compared with pre-war levels. Even the most optimistic market estimates in early July put flows through the strait at just above 10 million barrels a day — roughly half the prewar volume.

Half the oil is moving, but the price has fully recovered. Those numbers do not add up. Stored oil is filling part of the gap.

The government’s emergency oil reserve fell for the 14th week in a row in the week ending June 26, dropping to about 326 million barrels — down from roughly 402 million a year earlier. When commercial oil stocks are added, total U.S. crude supplies stand near 734 million barrels, around the lowest level since 1984.

Commercial inventories fell six straight weeks through late June, in a season when they normally build. The government’s emergency reserve is being drained at the same time. Trump warned on June 17 that, with the strait closed, U.S. reserves would run out “in about four weeks.” The oil price looks stable because stockpiles and backed-up cargo are covering part of the shortage. But the shortage has not been solved. It has only been covered, week by week, by drawing down reserves.

Several temporary factors are holding down the price.

Tankers trapped inside the Gulf since February cleared out after the June 17 memorandum, sending a one-time wave of oil into the market. China has also cut crude imports sharply, easing pressure on world prices for now. But these are stopgaps, not recovery. Kpler warned that the first post-deal surge was not normal trade returning, but backed-up cargo finally moving. Energy Aspects made the same point: individual tanker crossings can make the strait look open while the real flow of oil remains far below normal.

These stopgaps cannot last. Stored oil runs down. Backed-up tankers can clear only once. China cannot keep cutting imports forever. Trump himself said at the Group of Seven summit on June 17 that U.S. reserves would run out “at about four weeks” with the strait closed. The strait is still only partly open. The weeks are passing.

The shortage hidden by the oil price appears where workers buy fuel. U.S. retail diesel hit $5.40 a gallon on March 30, the highest level in over two years, and diesel refining margins in March ran to $1.42 a gallon at New York Harbor — more than double the five-year average. Refineries are running at 96% of capacity while U.S. net exports of refined products have hit record levels, as Europe and Asia bid for fuel to replace what no longer arrives from the Gulf. Diesel moves the trucks, trains and ships that move everything else. Its price is already inside every grocery bill.

That is the class content of the “recovery.” The oil price on the news — the number that reassures the stock market and flatters the White House — is being held down by emptying the stockpiles.

The prices workers actually pay, for diesel and food and everything diesel and fertilizer touch, carry the war’s real cost. The calm is genuine only on the screen, and it is purchased weekly, in barrels, from reserves that are running out.

The June 17 memorandum bought Washington a pause. U.S. imperialism is playing for time — hoping for a stronger economic and political position from which to resume the assault on Iran.

Washington is racing its own inventories. The Energy Department reports the drawdown every week: emergency stocks are being used, commercial inventories are falling, and the one-time backlog of trapped tankers is being spent. The shortage has not been solved. It has been pushed forward by burning through reserves.

Now the emergency declarations have begun, and the first one is about food.

The empire that set out on Feb. 28 to break Iran’s government and seize back its oil ended up losing the Strait of Hormuz instead — a waterway that was open to all before Washington attacked. Now it is burning its own stores to disguise the defeat. It cannot reopen the strait by force. It cannot admit the loss. So it drains the tanks, waives the tariffs, declares the emergencies and calls the result stability. Declining imperialism does not correct course; it consumes its reserves — of oil, of credibility, of time — and grows more dangerous as they run down. The fertilizer emergency is the first line of the bill. The rest is still arriving.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPLXVYOF9saEF4THNocXdKam1lSV8tRnlWZE9iZVFZVGZ2N2JfTjlJaTZJTDVtZjhzZ05Tb2lWWG80LWhDaFJCZk96aThCb1Q4aWRSNDN0TFAtVlZWb2xOWEtvYk9tU1UyZHdWZlZ4cnFGei1UTEN1ZVZOa19LVERxejhpRHM2UFpDeWlqem5QMVRXRGd1TGxMSHQ3S2s?oc=5