트럼프 대통령 재임 기간 중 주가 급락 가능성 높다
Is a Stock Market Crash Looming Under President Donald Trump? History Doesn't Mince Its Words...
역사적 데이터에 따르면 트럼프 대통령의 두 번째 임기 동안 시장 추락 위험이 높아질 수 있으나, 현재 지수 상승폭은 비교적 적어 중립적인 입장을 취하는 것이 적합합니다.
핵심 요약
트럼프 대통령 첫 임기 동안 나스닥 지수는 142% 상승했지만 역사적 데이터는 시장 급락 가능성을 시사합니다.
핵심요약
- 트럼프 대통령 첫 임기(2017-2021년) 동안 다우존스, S&P 500, 나스닥 지수는 각각 57%, 70%, 142% 상승
- 두 번째 임기 시작 이후인 6월 23일 기준 이 지수들은 19%, 23%, 30% 추가 상승
- 역사적 데이터는 트럼프 재임 기간 중 주가 급락 가능성을 시사
- S&P 500의 실러 P/E 비율은 역사적 평균보다 높음
- 주가 평가 문제로 시장 불안감이 고조되고 있음
도입
이 기사는 트럼프 대통령 재임 기간 중 주식 시장의 과도한 상승과 역사적 데이터가 시사하는 시장 급락 가능성에 대해 분석합니다. 투자자들에게는 트럼프 행정부의 정책과 시장 동향을 종합적으로 고려한 포트폴리오 조정이 필요함을 강조합니다.
본문 1: 트럼프 행정기의 시장 과열 현상
트럼프 대통령 첫 임기 동안 다우존스, S&P 500, 나스닥 지수는 각각 57%, 70%, 142% 상승하는 기록적인 성장을 보였습니다. 이는 경제 정책과 시장 분위기의 긍정적 변화가 결합된 결과입니다. 그러나 이러한 과도한 상승은 시장 과열의 가능성을 내포하고 있습니다. 특히 나스닥 지수의 142% 상승은 기술 주도의 성장으로 인한 것으로, 이는 시장 변동성 증가로 이어질 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 역사적 데이터가 시사하는 시장 전망
역사적 데이터는 높은 시장 평가와 과도한 상승이 시장 급락으로 이어질 가능성을 시사합니다. S&P 500의 실러 P/E 비율은 역사적 평균보다 높으며, 이는 시장 과열의 신호로 해석될 수 있습니다. 특히 2020년 코로나19 팬데믹 이후의 시장 회복은 일시적인 현상이 될 수 있음을 고려해야 합니다. 이는 장기적인 시장 전망에 대한 신중한 접근이 필요함을 의미합니다.
본문 3: 평가 문제와 시장 불안감
현재 S&P 500의 실러 P/E 비율은 역사적 평균을 크게 초과하고 있습니다. 이는 시장 평가 문제가 고조되고 있음을 나타냅니다. 이러한 평가 문제는 시장 불안감을 증가시키고, 이는 시장 급락으로 이어질 수 있습니다. 특히 기술 주도의 성장으로 인한 변동성은 시장 안정성에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
결론
트럼프 행정기의 시장 과열과 역사적 데이터가 시사하는 시장 급락 가능성은 투자자들에게 신중한 접근이 필요함을 강조합니다. 시장 평가 문제와 변동성 증가는 장기적인 시장 전망에 대한 주의가 필요하며, 포트폴리오 조정과 위험 관리 전략이 중요합니다. 향후 시장 동향과 정책 변화에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요합니다.
Original Article
Is a Stock Market Crash Looming Under President Donald Trump? History Doesn't Mince Its Words...
Statistically speaking, Wall Street has been thrilled to have President Donald Trump in the White House. Although some of the stock market's wildest oscillations have occurred during Trump's tenure, he's also overseen outsize annualized returns .
During Trump's first, non-consecutive term (Jan. 20, 2017 – Jan. 20, 2021), the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI 0.09% ) , benchmark S&P 500 ( ^GSPC 0.05% ) , and growth-dominated Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC 0.24% ) surged 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. Since the start of his second term, it's been an encore performance, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite gaining 19%, 23%, and 30%, respectively (as of June 23).
President Trump delivering remarks. Image source: Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian.
These outsize returns have been driven by:
But when things seem too good to be true on Wall Street, history shows they often are .
While historical precedent can't guarantee what's to come, it does tend to rhyme. More importantly, history removes emotions and subjectivity from the equation when offering its outlook. The past provides a no-nonsense prediction of the future for Wall Street -- and it points to a heightened likelihood of a stock market crash under Trump.
Valuation concerns are front and center
Though a laundry list of concerns threatens to upend the bull market that's thrived under President Trump, arguably no issue is more front and center than stock market valuations .
Value is a touchy subject because it's inherently subjective. What one investor views as pricey may be a bargain to another. The emotions and subjectivity that come into play when valuing a public company or the broader market are the reason it's so challenging to accurately predict short-term moves for Wall Street's major indexes.
However, the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has an immaculate track record of cutting through this subjectivity. You'll also find the Shiller P/E referred to as the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio ( CAPE Ratio ).
Shiller PE Ratio is now just 3.5% away from passing the Dot Com Bubble as the most expensive stock market valuation in history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/1ceOa3yhfs
The Shiller P/E Ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. Accounting for a decade of earnings history ensures that the Shiller P/E will retain its usefulness during recessions (the same can't be said for the traditional P/E ratio).
When back-tested to January 1871, the CAPE Ratio has averaged approximately 17.4. But when Wall Street's major indexes hit their all-time highs roughly four weeks ago, the CAPE Ratio touched its second-priciest valuation over 155 years of 42.84. It also came within a stone's throw of its priciest valuation in history, a CAPE Ratio of 44.19 in December 1999.
While the Shiller P/E has its limitations (e.g., it can't pinpoint when the music will stop on Wall Street), it also possesses an impeccable track record of forecasting sizable stock market downturns.
There have only been six instances in which the S&P 500's Shiller P/E has exceeded 30 during a continuous bull market since the start of 1871. Excluding the present, the previous five occurrences were all followed by declines of 20% (or greater) in the Dow, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite.
In other words, it's not a matter of if but when the weight of this AI-driven rally proves too great for Wall Street.
Margin debt tells a terrifying tale
However, stock valuations aren't the only concern. Outstanding margin debt provides another reason for investors to expect a serious correction, bear market, or stock market crash in the not-too-distant future.
Margin is money that an investor borrows from their broker to purchase or short-sell a security. When it's used to purchase a stock, it can leverage an investor's position. In short, margin can amplify gains if the underlying security moves in the intended direction, but it can also magnify losses if it moves in the opposite direction.
On top of escalating risk and reward, investors pay interest on the amount they borrow from their broker. The borrow rate is subject to change at the broker's discretion.
While it's normal for outstanding margin debt to rise over multiple decades, parabolic moves higher in margin debt often signal periods of investor euphoria and an impending crash event on Wall Street. Since April 2025, FINRA data show that outstanding margin balances have catapulted from $850.6 billion to a record $1.416 trillion in May 2026 .
BREAKING: US margin debt jumped by +$112 billion in May, to a record $1.42 trillion. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly increase, totaling +$195 billion. Margin debt has surged +$495 billion, or +54%, over the last 12 months. Adjusted for inflation, this metric rose +7.9%... pic.twitter.com/DrambJNRpa
A parabolic increase in margin-driven risk-taking has been observed only four times over the last 30 years:
During the dot-com bubble, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 49% and 78% of their respective value. Meanwhile, the financial crisis wiped away 57% of the S&P 500's value. A rapid uptick in outstanding margin debt is about as terrifying a signal for Wall Street as it gets .
While the Shiller P/E and outstanding margin debt data can't guarantee that a stock market crash will occur under President Trump, the probability of an elevator-down move is exponentially increasing.