핵심요약

• 이란은 최고 지도자 알리 하메네이(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) 사망 이후 보복을 요구하며 암살 시도에 대한 경고를 강화했습니다.
• 미국 대통령에 대한 암살 시도에 대한 이란의 노력이 6년 전, 카셈 솔라이마니(Qasem Soleimani) 암살 사건에서 시작되었습니다.
• 미국과 이스라엘의 공동 작전으로 하메네이가 사망한 이후, 시위대는 정부에 "트럼프를 죽여달라"고 요구하며 보복 의지를 표명했습니다.
• 이러한 외교적 불안정성은 외교적 협상에 필요한 신뢰를 약화시키고, 지정학적 위험 프리미엄을 상승시킵니다.

도입

본 기사는 미국과 이란 간의 군사적 충돌 상황에서 발생한 암살 시도와 보복 요구가 국제 정세에 미치는 영향을 분석합니다. 이는 단순히 양국 간의 갈등을 넘어, 미국 지도자들의 안전과 외교적 신뢰가 심각하게 위협받고 있음을 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 불안정성이 글로벌 에너지 시장과 국방 산업에 미치는 장기적인 영향에 주목해야 합니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 리스크의 심화

이란의 보복 요구는 단순한 감정적 반응을 넘어, 실제 암살 시도라는 구체적인 행동으로 표출되고 있습니다. 이 사건들은 양측의 관계가 극도로 악화되었음을 의미하며, 이는 외교적 채널을 통한 문제 해결 가능성을 크게 낮춥니다. 특히, 미국 지도자들을 겨냥한 암살 시도가 증가하면서 미국의 국내외 정책 결정 과정에 대한 불안정성이 커지고 있습니다. 이는 국제 사회에서 미국의 리더십에 대한 신뢰를 저해하는 주요 요인으로 작용하며, 국제 관계의 안정성이 훼손되는 결과를 낳습니다.

본문 2: 외교적 신뢰와 평화의 위협

암살 시도의 위협은 외교적 협상에 필수적인 신뢰를 근본적으로 훼손합니다. 양측이 생존을 위협받는다고 인식할 때, 평화와 안보를 위한 협력은 더욱 어려워집니다. 이러한 상황은 국제적인 갈등이 군사적 대립으로 비화될 위험을 높이며, 이는 잠재적인 무력 충돌의 위험을 증대시킵니다. 외교적 해결책이 작동하기 어려운 환경은 지정학적 위험 프리미엄을 높여 시장의 변동성을 키우는 요인이 됩니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망 및 시장 영향

이러한 암살 위협의 지속은 장기적으로 글로벌 안보 환경에 심각한 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 불안정한 지정학적 환경은 에너지 공급망의 취약성을 증가시키고, 이는 원유 및 천연가스 가격의 변동성을 키울 수 있습니다. 또한, 안보 위협에 대응하기 위한 각국의 국방비 지출이 증가하는 추세는 관련 산업에 대한 장기적인 수요를 창출할 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크를 반영한 위험 회피 성향을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 관리해야 합니다.

결론

이란과 미국 간의 암살 위협은 현재의 지정학적 상황이 단순한 국지적 분쟁을 넘어 글로벌 경제 시스템 전반에 영향을 미치고 있음을 시사합니다. 향후 상황은 양측의 외교적 노력과 실제 행동에 달려 있으며, 이러한 불안정성이 해소되기 위해서는 상호 신뢰를 회복하려는 노력이 필수적입니다. 투자자들은 향후 외교적 진전과 안보 상황 변화에 따라 글로벌 시장의 변동성을 지속적으로 모니터링해야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPX3hCR3ZVRXA2cjdvZll2eGl1LTRSdXg3SXU5N2FtUUVsZ3pKTFN3cEdIa3hTb1l0V2k3c09UcF9nRVlxazQ3cXVfU0pFUzM0WE5DTGpBU0d0MGFtVGNITE9YZDR6R05LN2pEeVljUkRldVNabmFYZ0NOUllaQ2NrNEtvdWZlaWdNTllYZjZ3M3laVWtxamlrRG5UeUxlN0dqcTJJZzJXekxVeEV2Wnc?oc=5

Assassinations unleashed under Trump haunt Iran war endgame - Los Angeles Times

Shortly before President Trump ended a ceasefire with Iran this week, Israeli officials presented his team with intelligence indicating Tehran was hatching new plots to kill him. It was not the first such warning. U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies have tracked evidence for years of Iranian efforts to target the president, with signals only increasing since the start of the war. Their desire to target Trump and his top aides began six years ago, just outside Baghdad International Airport, when the president ordered a drone strike that killed Iran's most powerful general. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani brought the two countries to the brink of war. Yet even as full-scale was averted, top Iranian officials vowed revenge for the strike, authorizing attempts on the lives not just of the president, but of his secretary of state and national security adviser, among others, even after they had left office. Now, calls for revenge have reached a sharper pitch in Tehran, after a joint U.S.-Israeli operation killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the start of the war in February. At Khamenei's funeral ceremonies this week, [last week for print] red flags of vengeance flew throughout the capital as protesters explicitly called on their government to "kill Trump." His son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader, was absent from the commemorations, fearing assassination himself. The prospect of foreign assassination plots targeting U.S. leaders puts the United States in dangerous new territory, where its embrace of political killings could ultimately place its own officials at unprecedented risk. And experts fear the existential threat of assassination has pushed peace further out of reach: when both sides believe their survival is at stake, the trust required for diplomacy becomes far harder to achieve. Israeli news organizations have reported that Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, cited Iranian attempts to kill Trump in recent years as part of his case to go to war in the first place. A U.S. official told The Times that a range of serious threats exist against the president, including from Iran, but that Israel's intelligence pointed to a more specific plot. The official did not provide further details. Israeli officials did not respond to requests for comment. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said in recent months that the government sees vengeance against U.S. officials as "its legitimate duty and right," and "will fulfill this great responsibility and duty with all its might." "The Soleimani killing accelerated a lifting of restraints on foreign assassinations — and the taboo on targeting and killing foreign leaders, with U.S. military assets, has been more or less lifted," said Matt Dallek, a political professor at George Washington University. "If the United States sets the example of how to conduct international relations, and it is using assassination of foreign leaders as a political weapon, it's only logical that other countries will be more inclined to also engage in assassinations," Dallek added. "It does seem likely that Trump will have a bigger target on his back." Returning from a NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday, Trump was forced to switch back to an old model of Air Force One — equipped with specialized defensive technologies — from a new plane given as a gift by Qatar, after the Secret Service warned of potential threats to the aircraft from Iran. “They want to take out the U.S. leader — me,” Trump told reporters aboard the plane. “I’m on whatever list. I saw this morning I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far, I guess I’ve been a bit lucky, but maybe that doesn’t last very long." The threat has remained on his mind in the days since. In an interview with the New York Post, Trump told the reporter, "I hope you'll miss me," adding that he has "been on their list for a long time." And in a subsequent social media post Friday night, he warned of a catastrophic response he instructed the administration to pursue in the event Tehran succeeds. “1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran," he wrote, "with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME!” The United States had a decades-old prohibition against assassinating foreign leaders before Trump's presidency, codified in an executive order signed by President Ford in 1976 over concerns of a CIA plot to kill Fidel Castro. The policy was only strengthened further by subsequent administrations, fearing a new international standard for targeted killings could result in catastrophic consequences in the halls of Washington. Other administrations have been accused of targeting foreign leaders before. Under the Obama administration, an international coalition targeting the Libyan regime of Muammar Gaddafi during the country's 2011 civil war struck his fleeing convoy, leading to his capture and killing by rebel fighters. But experts say Trump’s explicit targeting of Soleimani and Khamenei — and his public celebration of their deaths — marks a new paradigm. "Through words and actions, President Trump has done more to normalize political violence than any other U.S. president, certainly in modern times," said Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago and author of "Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism." "On the international front alone, the president routinely brags about killing Iranian leaders and seizing the leader of Venezuela, among others, to the point that assassination is becoming the new normal in international politics."

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPX3hCR3ZVRXA2cjdvZll2eGl1LTRSdXg3SXU5N2FtUUVsZ3pKTFN3cEdIa3hTb1l0V2k3c09UcF9nRVlxazQ3cXVfU0pFUzM0WE5DTGpBU0d0MGFtVGNITE9YZDR6R05LN2pEeVljUkRldVNabmFYZ0NOUllaQ2NrNEtvdWZlaWdNTllYZjZ3M3laVWtxamlrRG5UeUxlN0dqcTJJZzJXekxVeEV2Wnc?oc=5