핵심요약

• 동남아시아는 전 세계 농업 수출의 9%를 차지하며 농업이 경제의 핵심입니다.
• 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄로 필리핀은 4일 근무제를, 베트남과 태국은 에너지 절약 조치를 도입했습니다.
• 이란은 이스라엘의 헤즈볼라 공격이 계속되면 해협을 폐쇄하겠다고 위협했습니다.
• UN 전문가들은 중동 위기와 '고질라 강도' 엘니뇨의 복합 효과가 식량 공급에 심각한 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 경고했습니다.

도입

이 기사는 투자자에게 중동의 지정학적 긴장과 기후 변화가 동남아시아의 경제와 농업에 미치는 복합적 영향을 이해하는 데 중요합니다. 특히 농업이 지역 경제의 핵심인 동남아시아는 이 두 요인의 결합된 충격에 특히 취약할 수 있습니다.

본문 1: 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄의 경제적 영향

호르무즈 해협은 전 세계 석유 수출의 30%가 통과하는 중요한 물류 경로입니다. 이 해협이 폐쇄되면 동남아시아 국가들은 에너지 공급에 심각한 차질을 겪을 수 있습니다. 필리핀은 4일 근무제를 도입했고, 베트남과 태국도 에너지 절약 조치를 취했습니다. 이 조치들은 단기적으로 생산성을 떨어뜨릴 수 있지만, 장기적으로는 에너지 효율성을 높이는 계기가 될 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 조치들이 지역 경제에 미치는 영향을 신중하게 평가해야 합니다.

본문 2: 엘니뇨의 농업 생산에 미치는 영향

'고질라 강도' 엘니뇨는 동남아시아의 농업 생산에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 엘니뇨 현상이 발생하면 가뭄과 홍수 등이 빈번해져 농작물 생산이 감소할 수 있습니다. 이는 전 세계 식량 공급에 영향을 미쳐 식량 가격 상승을 초래할 수 있습니다. 동남아시아는 농업이 경제의 핵심인 만큼, 엘니뇨의 영향은 지역 경제에 serious한 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 농업 관련 종목의 가격 변동성과 수급 균형을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 합니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 투자 전략

중동 위기와 엘니뇨의 복합 효과는 동남아시아의 경제와 농업에 장기적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 리스크를 고려하여 포트폴리오를 다양화하고, 농업과 에너지 분야의 혁신적인 기업에 주목해야 합니다. 또한, 기후 변화와 지정학적 리스크에 강건한 비즈니스 모델을 가진 기업들을 탐색하는 것이 중요합니다. 이러한 전략적 접근이 투자자에게 안정적인 수익을 안겨줄 수 있을 것입니다.

결론

중동 위기와 엘니뇨의 복합 효과는 동남아시아의 경제와 농업에 significant한 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 리스크를 신중하게 평가하고, 장기적인 관점에서 포트폴리오를 구성하는 것이 중요합니다. 또한, 기후 변화와 지정학적 리스크에 강건한 기업들을 탐색하는 것이 필수적입니다.

---

원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxOMEVtcG04MzBJMXBicTBtVGRPMU5wV0ZfU280b28zcG1EcXJSYTZueXNaNHBENGk3SmJVY2hoQ2JOTkQtMUlhb18wTmRQSlQxdndnLW1zMTZjM1dqTktGcmdBRkJaU1lwNVJmUXNoam5ub2ZIM2JxaHpiQjRJMHRyTVR6RnU2NVNzV0xHOHBhVVR5Q1hxSE1PdktGZU13MzB4RU45NWJ2TWxPZVVEYXc?oc=5

‘Compound shock effect’: why the Middle East crisis and El Niño could spell disaster in south-east Asia - The Guardian

Millions of tonnes of the world’s food could be lost amid the uncertainties surrounding the strait of Hormuz and the dangers of a ‘Godzilla-strength’ El Niño

When the US and Israel launched the war on Iran, south-east Asian nations were amongst the first and hardest hit , as the closure of the strait of Hormuz cut off supplies of energy and fertiliser.

Governments across the region, heavily reliant on the waterway, raced to find ways to reduce their fuel use: in the Philippines , many government workers were put on a four-day week. In Vietnam, employers were urged to allow staff to work from home. In Thailand, offices were urged to set air-conditioning units to 27C.

South-east Asian governments last week expressed hope that the Iran peace deal would bring freedom of navigation through the strait and economic stability.

However, that optimism looks fragile as on Saturday Iran indicated it would close the strait after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and planned to introduce a system of maritime fees.

Now, United Nations experts are warning of a “compound shock effect” arising from the economic fallout from the conflict combined with looming “Godzilla strength” El Niño conditions in Asia and the Pacific, which could put millions of tonnes of the world’s food at risk.

Agriculture has been the backbone of south-east Asia’s economy, and contributes almost one tenth (9%) of global agricultural exports.

So what is happening in the strait and with El Niño, and how bad could things get?

The US has lifted its blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf, but the fate of the strait of Hormuz remains uncertain as peace talks continue.

Iran has threatened to close the strait if Israel keeps up its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and has announced plans to introduce a system of maritime fees after the 60-day negotiating period has ended.

The world’s main shipping watchdog, the International Maritime Organization has already said any toll would set a “dangerous precedent” .

In that scenario, Henning Gloystein, the managing director for Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group, said south-east Asian nations would club together with other countries across Asia and also in Europe to find an alternative.

The closure of the strait of Hormuz provided a “stark wake-up call” exposing the region’s vulnerability, according to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) last week.

Before the crisis, 60% of south-east Asia’s imports of crude oil and a third of its imports of gas came from the Middle East, according to the IEA. The region’s energy import bill is projected to reach $160bn this year – double the $80bn bill in 2024. There are predictions it could reach $245bn by 2035.

The region is also dependent on fertiliser imported from the Middle East. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated this month that about 3.3m tonnes of rice production across Asia and the Pacific are already at risk due to reduced fertiliser use.

Higher energy and fertiliser costs are pushing up food prices across the region. For example, in Myanmar the average cost of a basic food basket has increased by 19% since late February, while the price of fish like tuna has surged as many fishermen cannot afford the fuel to take their boats out .

Steven Okun, chief executive of geopolitical strategy firm APAC Advisors, said any fees imposed on transit through the strait will lead to higher prices in Asia.

“Whether it is called a toll or user fee, [it] raises insurance and shipping costs, which flow straight through to fuel prices – and import-dependent economies in south-east Asia will be hit,” Okun said.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in June declared that El Niño conditions were now under way in the tropical Pacific, which experts had predicted would have dire consequences for agriculture.

In a report released on Wednesday , the UN’s FAO said its “greatest concern” lies in the interaction between the emerging El Niño and the market pressures stemming from the Middle East crisis. “When both factors are considered together, FAO estimates that 7–8 million tonnes of rice production could be at risk under a scenario involving a partial closure of the strait of Hormuz, in Asia-Pacific,” it said.

Thailand – with its strong signs of an emerging drought and substantial exposure to global energy and fertiliser price increases – “stands out as the clearest example of compound risk” the report stated, followed by Indonesia, the Philippines, and several Pacific Island countries.

Maximo Torero, chief economist at the FAO, said the effects would not be confined to Asia and the Pacific, if millions of tonnes of food production are at risk.

“The impact may not appear as an immediate physical shortage everywhere, but as higher food import bills, tighter supplies, reduced farmer incomes, lower purchasing power and increased pressure on vulnerable households,” he said.

“The shock is global because it moves through energy, fertiliser, freight, food prices and trade channels.”

The situation also has an impact on wider international relations, especially if as Okun says, other geographical chokepoints “become weaponised”.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxOMEVtcG04MzBJMXBicTBtVGRPMU5wV0ZfU280b28zcG1EcXJSYTZueXNaNHBENGk3SmJVY2hoQ2JOTkQtMUlhb18wTmRQSlQxdndnLW1zMTZjM1dqTktGcmdBRkJaU1lwNVJmUXNoam5ub2ZIM2JxaHpiQjRJMHRyTVR6RnU2NVNzV0xHOHBhVVR5Q1hxSE1PdktGZU13MzB4RU45NWJ2TWxPZVVEYXc?oc=5