일리 리들리, 1000억 달러 매출 스토리 구축 전망 및 18% 상승 여력
Eli Lilly Has a $100 Billion Revenue Story in the Making, 18% Upside Ahead
경영진의 가이던스가 엘리 리리가 1000억 달러 매출 목표에 강력하게 도달하도록 위치시켜 장기적인 상승 여력을 창출합니다.
핵심 요약
일리 리들리는 Mounjaro와 Zepbound의 강력한 성장을 바탕으로 향후 12개월 동안 17.89%의 상승 여력을 보일 것으로 예상됩니다.
(분석 완료)
Original Article
Eli Lilly Has a $100 Billion Revenue Story in the Making, 18% Upside Ahead
Eli Lilly ( NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction ) is trading at $1,255.40, and management has guided fiscal 2026 revenue between $85 billion and $87 billion. That puts the $100 billion revenue mark within reach.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Lilly is $1,480.01, implying 17.89% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy, with confidence level 90%.
Lilly is up 6.38% over the past week, 8.1% over the past month, and 77.98% over the past year, trading just under its 52-week high of $1,292.65.
Q2 2026 drove the rerating : revenue of $22.97 billion grew 47.67% year over year and beat consensus by 11.06%. EPS of $8.38 beat by 27.27%. Mounjaro delivered $9.94 billion (+91%) and Zepbound another $4.93 billion. In May, Lilly became the first drugmaker to hit a $1 trillion market value , and it now sits above that at $1.12 trillion.
The bull case rests on three engines . First, the incretin franchise generated nearly $14.87 billion in a single quarter, with Mounjaro international sales growing 172%.
Second, orforglipron (Foundeo), the approved oral GLP-1 , is rolling out globally in 2027, with prescriber adoption jumping from approximately 8,000 to 36,000.
Third, retatrutide, whose TRIUMPH-1 trial showed weight loss approaching bariatric surgery levels, is on track for a Q1 2027 BLA.
CEO David Ricks called “ Lilly’s future, after 150 years, has never been brighter .” Our bull-case scenario points to $1,704.19, a 35.75% total return, consistent with 5 strong-buy and 17 buy consensus ratings.
Realized U.S. prices fell roughly 9% ex-rebate, and Lilly took $2.78 billion in IPR&D charges from heavy M&A activity. Bulls counter that these charges reflect deliberate pipeline investment in Verve, Ataibeckley, and Kelonia, and that non-GAAP performance margin expanded to 54.8%.
Concentration is another risk: Mounjaro and Zepbound represent more than half of revenue, and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill launch will contest the oral category. Our bear case implies $1,222.27, a -2.64% return.
Novo Nordisk ( NYSE:NVO ) is the only true incretin peer, with Q1 2026 adjusted sales falling 4% at constant exchange rates as U.S. pricing eroded. Novo trades at a market cap of $156.4 billion, roughly one-seventh of Lilly’s, despite a comparable GLP-1 franchise. That valuation gap reflects the market’s premium for Lilly’s growth trajectory.
Merck ( NYSE:MRK ) provides the large-cap pharma valuation floor. Merck guides FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of $5.04 to $5.16 on revenue of $65.8 billion to $67 billion, roughly comparable to Lilly with a fraction of the growth.
Merck’s market cap of $376.4 billion versus Lilly’s $1.12 trillion reflects the growth premium. Against that field, Lilly’s forward P/E of 35 looks rich but defensible, and our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,480.01 reads as reasonable.
I’m sticking with the buy call and the 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,480.01 at 90% confidence . The tipping factor is retatrutide readouts stacked against a raised revenue guide and margin expansion of nine percentage points.
I’d be a buyer if the Q1 2027 retatrutide BLA lands on schedule and Foundayo international launches track UAE uptake. I would stay on the sidelines if U.S. price erosion accelerates past management’s guided offset.
Here is where our model projects Lilly could trade, assuming current trajectories hold.
These projections assume Lilly continues executing on its incretin franchise and pipeline. Meaningful upside or downside could result from retatrutide’s regulatory outcome, orforglipron’s international ramp, and U.S. GLP-1 pricing policy .
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