파키스탄, 이란 중재 성공으로 글로벌 영향력 확대 시도
Will Pakistan's Iran War Mediation Gamble Pay Off? - Foreign Policy
파키스탄의 이란 전쟁 중재 노력은 장기적인 지opolitical 전략이지만, 단기적인 불확실성이 존재합니다.
핵심 요약
인구 2억 4천만 명의 파키스탄이 이란 중재 성공으로 글로벌 영향력 확대 시도 중.
핵심요약
- 인구 2억 4천만 명으로 세계 5위 규모
- 중동과 동아시아의 전략적 요충지로서의 위치 강조
- 미국 트럼프 대통령의 지원 지속성 불확실
- 중동 지역이 외교 정책의 핵심 영역
도입
파키스탄의 이란 중재 성공이 글로벌 영향력 확대 시도에 미치는 영향은 투자자들에게 중요한 의미를 가집니다. 중동과 동아시아를 연결하는 전략적 위치와 인구 규모를 고려할 때, 파키스탄의 외교 정책 변화는 지역 경제와 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히, 트럼프 대통령의 지원 지속성과 중동 지역의 안정성에 대한 관심은 투자 결정에 중요한 변수가 될 수 있습니다.
본문 1: 파키스탄의 전략적 위치와 글로벌 영향력
파키스탄은 인구 2억 4천만 명으로 세계 5위 규모의 국가로, 중동과 동아시아를 연결하는 전략적 요충지로서의 위치를 강조하고 있습니다. 이는 파키스탄이 글로벌 경제와 정치에서 더 큰 역할을 할 수 있는 기반이 됩니다. 특히, 이란 중재 성공을 통해 파키스탄은 중동 지역의 안정화에 기여할 수 있는 중요한 역할을 수행할 수 있습니다. 이는 파키스탄의 외교 정책과 경제 협력에 새로운 기회들을 열어줄 수 있습니다. 그러나, 파키스탄의 경제 규모와 글로벌 경쟁력은 제한적이며, 이는 파키스탄이 글로벌 영향력을 확대하는 데 있어 중요한 장애물이 될 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 트럼프 대통령의 지원 지속성과 리스크
트럼프 대통령의 지원은 파키스탄이 중재 역할을 수행하는 데 중요한 역할을 했습니다. 그러나, 트럼프 대통령의 지원 지속성은 불확실하며, 이는 파키스탄의 외교 정책과 경제 협력에 새로운 리스크를 초래할 수 있습니다. 특히, 중동 지역의 갈등이 완화될 경우, 트럼프 대통령의 지원은 감소할 수 있으며, 이는 파키스탄의 글로벌 영향력 확대 시도에 장애물이 될 수 있습니다. 또한, 파키스탄의 경제 협력과 상업적 기회, 예를 들어 중요한 광물 자원의 개발은 트럼프 대통령의 지원 지속성에 크게 의존하고 있습니다. 이는 파키스탄의 경제 성장과 안정성에 중요한 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
본문 3: 중동 지역과의 협력 강화 필요성
중동 지역은 파키스탄의 외교 정책에서 여전히 핵심적인 위치를 차지하고 있습니다. 파키스탄은 중동 지역의 안정화와 협력 강화를 통해 글로벌 영향력을 확대할 수 있습니다. 특히, 인도-중동-유럽 코리더와 인도-이스라엘-아랍에미리트-미국 쿼드와 같은 새로운 지역 경제 구조가 형성되면서, 파키스탄은 중동 지역의 협력 강화가 더욱 중요해지고 있습니다. 이는 파키스탄의 경제 성장과 안정성에 새로운 기회들을 열어줄 수 있습니다. 그러나, 파키스탄은 중동 지역의 복잡한 정치적 상황과 경제적 도전에 직면해 있으며, 이는 파키스탄의 외교 정책과 경제 협력에 새로운 도전을 초래할 수 있습니다.
결론
파키스탄의 이란 중재 성공은 글로벌 영향력 확대 시도에 중요한 기반이 될 수 있습니다. 그러나, 트럼프 대통령의 지원 지속성과 중동 지역의 안정성에 대한 관심은 파키스탄의 외교 정책과 경제 협력에 새로운 리스크와 기회를 동시에 제공합니다. 파키스탄은 중동 지역과의 협력 강화와 글로벌 경제에서의 역할을 강화하는 데 주력해야 하며, 이는 파키스탄의 경제 성장과 안정성에 중요한 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 향후, 파키스탄의 외교 정책과 경제 협력의 동향을 주의 깊게 지켜볼 필요가 있습니다.
Original Article
Will Pakistan's Iran War Mediation Gamble Pay Off? - Foreign Policy
Islamabad could leverage its success as a mediator to secure its own interests.
Welcome to Foreign Policy ’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Pakistan hopes to capitalize on the success of its Iran mediation efforts , Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman makes a significant trip to China, and Indian Home Minister Amit Shah has a rare meeting with the U.S. ambassador in New Delhi.
Pakistan Looks to Grow Its Global Influence
When the United States and Iran reached a framework peace deal this month, one of the first public announcements came from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The agreement capped weeks of mediation by Pakistan, which has long sought to convince the world that it is an influential and positive player on the global stage.
The question is if Islamabad can capitalize on its newfound prominence. Pakistan is the world’s fifth-most populous country, and it occupies strategic real estate as a gateway to both the Middle East and East Asia. But it has limited leverage: It’s not a major economy and doesn’t boast a critical global export, such as oil or microchips.
Further, U.S. President Donald Trump’s backing, which helped Pakistan secure its chief mediator role, may not last. Trump is notoriously fickle and might conclude that Islamabad’s utility isn’t so great, especially if conflict in the Middle East winds down and commercial opportunities in Pakistan (like those concerning critical minerals) don’t pan out.
Pakistan also risks being crowded out by more significant global actors. For example, enduring peace in the Middle East could advantage its rival India, which is a big part of the emerging geoeconomic architecture poised to take shape in the region, such as the India-Middle East-Europe corridor and the India-Israel-United Arab Emirates-United States quad.
Still, the Middle East remains Islamabad’s foreign-policy comfort zone, and it will be imperative that it maintains a strong focus on the region. Many of Pakistan’s closest friends are in the Middle East, several million Pakistanis work there, and it has a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Its cachet in the region stands to grow.
Moving forward, Pakistan can leverage its achievements in mediation to help secure its interests. For example, in future negotiations with its Gulf donors to get more favorable loan terms, it can point to its successful efforts to stop a war that hit them hard.
Pakistan must address the internal problems that have sullied its image, including political repression and terrorism. Global acclaim could shield Islamabad from some international criticism or even embolden it to accelerate steps that anger the Pakistani public, such as crackdowns on dissent. But issues at home will limit Islamabad’s policy bandwidth abroad.
In the long term, sustained global influence will also require a stronger economy. Pakistan has made some headway on this front, particularly in its small technology sector . Still, it has work to do to compete: With global markets prioritizing semiconductors and clean energy infrastructure, Pakistan still emphasizes its textiles and agricultural goods.
Strengthening the economy would not only bolster Pakistan’s global influence, it would also reduce its dependence on external financing and give it more space to pursue an independent foreign policy.
Even before its recent successes, Islamabad exerted agency on the global stage, participating in a range of multilateral organizations, expanding long-standing partnerships, and leading multi-country military exercises. Pakistan’s mediation of the Iran deal presents it with an opportunity to expand its global footprint. But it will involve hard work, both abroad and at home.
Tarique Rahman in China. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who took office in February, is in China this week after a stop in Malaysia. His agenda for the three-day visit includes high-level engagements in Beijing and a World Economic Forum event in Dalian. That Rahman traveled to China during his first trip abroad as prime minister—and not India—is significant.
Beijing is a close partner of Dhaka, and they have expanded economic and security cooperation in recent years. Meanwhile, Bangladesh-India ties have sputtered since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Some Bangladesh Nationalist Party leaders have suggested a desire to explore rapprochement with India; an early visit from Rahman would have sent a strong signal.
In the end, Rahman’s decision to go to China instead makes sense. There is strong anti-India sentiment among the Bangladeshi public, and strong and early outreach to India would have posed political risks for the new government.
Amit Shah meets U.S. ambassador. A day after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Trump in France last week, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah hosted Sergio Gor, the U.S. ambassador, in New Delhi. At first glance, this may seem inconsequential; since taking the post in January, Gor has had a series of high-level engagements seeking to get the U.S.-India relationship back on track.
But the meeting was unusual. Shah, who has a reputation as a hard-nosed enforcer, doesn’t typically do diplomacy. (He last traveled abroad 20 years ago .) When he does meet foreign diplomats, they tend to be minister-level. Shah’s only other recent engagements with U.S. ambassadors were a meeting with Eric Garcetti in 2023 and Kenneth Juster in 2019.
The Gor meeting focused on bilateral counterterrorism and counternarcotics cooperation. It might be tied to Shah’s political aspirations. He has been cited as a possible successor to Modi, and he may want to show that he is comfortable with foreign dignitaries—in contrast to his reputation as a parochial politician.
Measles outbreak in Bangladesh. One of the biggest immediate challenges for the Rahman government is public health. The country faces a serious measles outbreak, and new cases are still rising. Figures released on Tuesday by the Directorate General of Health Services reported 1,009 new suspected cases over a 24-hour period, increasing the total number to 94,764.
Nearly 80,000 people have been hospitalized with suspected measles since April 10, and 593 people have died. Experts have blamed the outbreak on delays in vaccinations after Hasina’s ouster. They also warn that the situation in Bangladesh could pose risks for other countries, including the United States.
Measles is just one of several serious public health challenges that Bangladesh is grappling with: Dengue fever, transmitted by mosquitoes, has also hit the country hard in recent years.
Last Friday, Afghanistan said it carried out airstrikes in Pakistan targeting the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), one of the Taliban’s only militant rivals. The Taliban regime said the strikes hit facilities being used in collusion with “certain hostile intelligence circles” to plan attacks against Afghanistan.
The Taliban statement presumably referred to Pakistani intelligence, though Pakistan also considers IS-K a threat and has targeted the group previously. Pakistan’s ministry of information quickly posted on X and rejected the Taliban’s claims and said that all IS-K facilities are located in Afghanistan. Both sides have otherwise remained silent on the issue.
A few things stand out about this development.
First, Afghanistan does not have a proper air force; the arms that the Taliban seized in 2021 were largely for ground activities. Any air operations in Pakistan would have been modest in intensity—drawing on a small number of aircraft, helicopters, and drones that don’t seem sufficient for a successful cross-border operation.
Further, amid the periodic Afghanistan-Pakistan violence in recent months, most of the Taliban’s kinetic actions have targeted Pakistani border troops in retaliation for airstrikes in Afghanistan. Preemptive counterterrorism strikes by the Taliban in Pakistan, if they took place, would mark a new phase in tensions between the countries.
That neither side has said anything else publicly on this matter is another indication that the Taliban claims could be wrong or exaggerated.
A Daily Star editorial slams Bangladesh’s government for ordering an expansion of hospital beds without addressing a shortage of medical personnel. “The government’s priority should be fulfilling the existing demand for doctors, nurses, and workers and expediting planned recruitments,” it argues.