AMD 대 브로드컴: 엔비디아의 가장 큰 문제점 분석
AMD Vs. Broadcom: Why Broadcom is Actually Nvidia’s Biggest Problem
Broadcom이 구축한 인프라 해자(moat)가 AI 반도체 경쟁 구도를 근본적으로 재정의하고 있으며, 이는 시장에 구조적인 불확실성을 야기합니다.
핵심 요약
Broadcom은 AI 인프라를 위한 핵심 네트워킹 솔루션을 제공하며 시장 지배력을 강화하고 있으며, 이는 AMD의 경쟁에도 불구하고 장기적인 성장 동력으로 작용합니다.
(분석 완료)
Original Article
AMD Vs. Broadcom: Why Broadcom is Actually Nvidia’s Biggest Problem
Broadcom ( NASDAQ: AVGO | AVGO Price Prediction ) and AMD ( NASDAQ: AMD ) both closed earnings season with data center results that force a rethink of Nvidia’s real competition. Broadcom’s Q2 FY2026 landed June 3 with AI semi revenue up 143%. AMD reported yesterday, with Data Center revenue more than doubling. Same tailwind, opposite playbooks.
Broadcom posted revenue of $22.19 billion (+47.9% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.44, an 8th consecutive beat. The engine was AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8 billion, above Hock Tan’s own forecast. He then guided Q3 AI revenue to $16 billion, a 200%+ jump. That looks like hyperscaler capex funneling straight into one supplier.
AMD’s quarter hit $11.54 billion in revenue (+50.11%) with EPS of $1.66. Data Center brought in $6.72 billion, up 107%, swinging segment operating income from a $155 million loss to $2.10 billion. Lisa Su called it “an excellent quarter.” Gaming fell 31%, a reminder the console cycle still bites.
Broadcom’s AI franchise sidesteps merchant GPUs entirely. It designs custom XPUs for Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic, and sells the Ethernet fabric (Tomahawk 6, Jericho 4) that stitches 100,000-GPU clusters together. Networking alone was almost 40% of Q2 AI revenue. Every hyperscaler build pays a Broadcom toll whether the compute is Nvidia, AMD, or in-house silicon. Backlog tells the story: AI bookings above $30 billion against $10.8 billion shipped.
AMD is doing the hard thing: challenging Nvidia head-on. The Anthropic collaboration covers up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 in Helios racks, and Microsoft is scaling Helios on Azure. Impressive wins, but AMD still fights for design slots Nvidia usually locks up.
Broadcom guided Q3 revenue near $29.4 billion (+84%) and reiterated $56 billion in full-year AI semi revenue. Visibility extends into 2028. AMD guided Q3 to roughly $13 billion (+41% YoY). I want to see Instinct’s dollar mix inside that number, because EPYC strength alone will not settle the Broadcom-versus-Nvidia debate.
I lean Broadcom for structural reasons. Hyperscalers are actively engineering around the Nvidia tax, and Hock Tan is the partner they call. Lisa Su has executed brilliantly, but AMD still needs Nvidia’s customers to pick it. Broadcom is already inside the customer. If you want defensive AI exposure with a dividend and 15 straight annual raises, Broadcom fits my profile. If you want higher-beta upside and can stomach a rich forward multiple, AMD offers the sharper shot. After AMD’s 193.35% one-year run, I would keep an eye on the stock through the next earnings report.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.