AMD, NVIDIA 대비 우위 점유 가능성 분석
Why I Continue to Prioritize AMD Stock Over Nvidia
AMD의 MI450 제품 출시로 Nvidia와 경쟁할 수 있는 No.2 포지션 확보가 기대되어 AMD 주식이 강세일 것으로 전망됩니다.
핵심 요약
AMD는 2022년 6월 이후 560% 수익을 기록했으며, NVIDIA는 1,240% 수익을 기록했습니다.
핵심요약
- 2022년 6월 AMD 매수 후 560% 수익, NVIDIA 대비 1,240% 성장
- AMD MI450, 432GB HBM4 메모리 탑재로 NVIDIA 288GB를 상회
- NVIDIA 2027회계연도 1분기 매출 전년 대비 85% 성장
- AMD, AI 가속기 분야 No. 2로 자리매김
도입
이 기사는 반도체 업계의 경쟁 구도를 분석하며, AMD와 NVIDIA의 기술적·재무적 비교를 제공합니다. 투자자에게는 AI 가속기 시장에서의 경쟁력 평가와 포트폴리오 구성 시 고려해야 할 핵심 지표를 제시합니다.
본문 1: AMD의 기술적 우위와 시장 경쟁력
AMD의 MI450 제품은 2nm 공정으로 제작되며, NVIDIA의 3nm 공정 대비 우위를 점할 전망입니다. 또한 432GB의 HBM4 메모리를 탑재하여 NVIDIA의 288GB를 상회합니다. 이는 데이터센터 및 AI 응용 분야에서 AMD의 경쟁력을 강화할 수 있습니다. 그러나 NVIDIA의 현재 아키텍처가 여전히 우위이며, AMD의 기술적 우위는 일시적일 수 있습니다. 이는 투자자에게는 단기적인 기술 변동성에 대비할 필요성을 강조합니다.
본문 2: 재무 성장과 시장 평가
NVIDIA는 2027회계연도 1분기 매출이 전년 대비 85% 성장하며 강력한 재무 성장을 보이고 있습니다. 이는 AI 수요 증가에 따른 것입니다. AMD도 560%의 수익을 기록했지만, NVIDIA 대비 상대적으로 낮은 성장률을 보입니다. 이는 AMD가 시장 점유율 확대에도 불구하고 NVIDIA의 지배적 지위를 넘어서기 어렵다는 점을 시사합니다. 투자자에게는 장기적인 시장 점유율 변화 가능성에 주목할 필요가 있습니다.
결론
AMD는 기술적 우위를 통해 NVIDIA와 경쟁할 수 있지만, 단기적인 변동성에 대비해야 합니다. NVIDIA의 지속적인 재무 성장과 시장 지배력은 AMD의 성장을 제약할 수 있습니다. 투자자는 반도체 시장 동향과 기술 혁신 속도를 지속적으로 모니터링해야 합니다.
Original Article
Why I Continue to Prioritize AMD Stock Over Nvidia
In June 2022, I made what was likely a mistake by choosing to buy Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD +1.46% ) stock over Nvidia ( NVDA 1.58% ) . It was a cheaper stock in terms of valuation, and this was before Nvidia's "ChatGPT moment," when the market discovered the power of Nvidia's AI accelerators.
Also, buying AMD is only a mistake in a relative sense. It is still up around 560% from my initial buy price, less than the approximate 1,240% gain in Nvidia but far above the S&P 500 's gain.
Moreover, although I would choose Nvidia over AMD if I could go back in time, I plan to stick with AMD going forward. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
When I think of AMD and Nvidia, I think of Jack Welch's adage that a company should be either No. 1 or No. 2 in a given industry to succeed. In this case, I feel AMD is a solid No. 2. Although Nvidia pioneered and continues to innovate in the AI accelerator industry, AMD has closed much of the gap, one that is on track to narrow further with the upcoming release of the MI450.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing produces it on its 2-nanometer process, compared to Nvidia's 3nm process for its competing Vera Rubin platform. It is also expected to ship with 432 GB of HBM4 memory, compared to 288 GB for Vera Rubin. AMD is also expected to come with a lower total cost of ownership, according to some analysts.
Indeed, for now, Nvidia's current architecture holds the advantage. Also, such advancements are unlikely to unseat Nvidia as the market leader even if analyst assessments of the two platforms prove correct. Additionally, even if AMD gains the anticipated technical edge, it could prove temporary as both companies continue to innovate.
How the stocks compare financially
Furthermore, on the surface, Nvidia continues to deliver financial growth. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended April 26), revenue grew 85% from year-ago levels. AMD's fiscal quarters follow the calendar year, so it is not a perfect comparison. Its revenue increased by a robust but significantly slower 38%.
Investors should also remember that the data center segment, which includes AI accelerators, accounts for 92% of overall revenue, compared to 56% for AMD. However, AMD's market capitalization is $850 billion, a small fraction of Nvidia's $4.9 trillion, causing possible headwinds from the law of large numbers.
Even if one considers Nvidia stock a buy , investors should remember that it is the only company to grow to a market cap above $4.9 trillion, and a tenfold increase in the stock price would take the market cap to $49 trillion! That may be difficult to imagine in a world where no company has yet reached $6 trillion in market capitalization.
In comparison, a tenfold increase in AMD takes the market cap to $8.5 trillion. AMD's current size will also make it somewhat difficult for its stock to rise by that much, though the market is on track to set new market cap records as more investors turn to these larger AI stocks.
Admittedly, neither stock is subject to a formal limit on market cap growth. Still, that difference strongly suggests it will be easier for AMD's stock price to rise than Nvidia's, likely making AMD more attractive to growth investors.
Moreover, these headwinds are likely already affecting Nvidia with its valuation. Nvidia's P/E ratio is only 31, compared to AMD's 171, which appears less affected. The difference narrows with the forward P/E ratio, where AMD's 71x is closer to Nvidia's 23x.
Those higher multiples from AMD are also likely built on a belief that the MI450's release will meet or exceed market expectations. If the MI450 sells as anticipated, AMD may be in a better position to command and retain that valuation premium, at least until its market cap catches up to Nvidia's.
Amid these facts, I will hold my AMD stock in anticipation that it will grow faster than Nvidia. Admittedly, Nvidia holds the edge in the AI accelerator market, and with its higher revenue growth and a low P/E ratio compared to that growth (and to AMD), investors should anticipate continued stock price appreciation.
Unfortunately for Nvidia, growth investors tend to want to see the potential for tenfold or more growth. That is likely to motivate them to take an interest in other stocks, possibly slowing Nvidia's stock price appreciation relative to its revenue growth.
AMD is not completely immune to these effects, as its market value would break current records if it were to increase by 10x. Nonetheless, it is still small enough that AMD may grow faster if the MI450 and subsequent chip releases make it more competitive with Nvidia. Thus, among chip stocks , AMD stock appears to hold more potential for appreciation over time.