테슬라 주가 2% 하락... 스페이스X 28.5조 달러 시장 규모 전망에 분석가 비판
Tesla Stock Slips Overnight: Retail Turns Cautious On SpaceX Merger Hype As Analyst Questions ‘Absurd’ $2 Trillion Valuation
스페이스X 합병 소문은 별 효과가 없었고, 2조 달러의 부실한 평가 추정이 소매 투자자들을 위협하고 있습니다.
핵심 요약
테슬라 주가는 스페이스X의 28.5조 달러 시장 규모 전망에 대한 비판으로 2% 하락했습니다.
핵심요약
- 테슬라 주가는 2% 하락하며 스페이스X 인수 합병 루머와 28.5조 달러 시장 규모 전망에 대한 비판이 맞물렸습니다
- 스페이스X는 작년 1867억 달러 매출을 기록했으나 49억 달러 손실을 내며 성장률이 둔화되고 있습니다
- 테크 분석가 벤 톰슨은 이 가치를 '부조리하다'고 비판하며 매출 증가 속도와 AI 투자 비용이 부담으로 작용할 수 있다고 지적했습니다
도입
이번 기사에서 스페이스X의 28.5조 달러 시장 규모 전망이 '부조리하다'는 분석가들의 비판이 테슬라 주가에 미치는 영향을 분석해야 합니다. 특히 AI 인프라와 기업용 AI 애플리케이션을 중심으로 한 과대 포장 가능성을 고려할 때, 투자자들은 스페이스X의 실적과 성장 전망을 신중히 평가해야 합니다.
본문 1: 스페이스X의 과대 포장된 시장 규모 전망
스페이스X가 제시한 28.5조 달러 시장 규모 전망 중 265조 달러가 AI 인프라와 기업용 AI 애플리케이션에서 비롯된 것으로 분석가들은 이 수치를 '부조리하다'고 비판했습니다. 벤 톰슨은 '이 숫자들은 명백히 부조리하다'고 말하며, 현재 스페이스X의 재무 상태와 비교할 때 과장된 전망이라고 지적했습니다. 스페이스X는 작년 1867억 달러 매출을 기록했지만 49억 달러 손실을 내며 성장률이 둔화되고 있습니다. 이는 AI 관련 지출이 증가하고 있는 상황에서 실적과 전망의 괴리가 더욱 두드러진다는 점을 시사합니다.
본문 2: 테슬라 주가의 변동성 요인 분석
테슬라 주가의 변동성은 스페이스X 인수 합병 루머와 함께 AI 인프라 투자 비용 증가로 인한 실적 악화 가능성에 기인합니다. 특히 AI 관련 지출이 증가하면서 스페이스X의 재무 상태가 악화될 가능성이 높고, 이는 테슬라 주가에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 반면, 스페이스X의 장기적인 성장 가능성과 스타십 프로젝트의 성공 가능성을 고려할 때, 일부 투자자들은 여전히 긍정적인 전망을 유지하고 있습니다. 그러나 단기적으로는 과대 포장된 시장 규모 전망이 주가에 미치는 부정적인 영향을 고려해야 합니다.
본문 3: 장기적인 투자 전략 수립을 위한 고려 사항
장기적인 투자 전략을 수립할 때, 스페이스X의 실적과 성장 전망을 신중히 평가해야 합니다. 특히 AI 인프라와 기업용 AI 애플리케이션에 대한 과대 포장 가능성을 고려할 때, 투자자들은 스페이스X의 재무 상태와 성장 가능성을 균형 있게 평가해야 합니다. 또한, 테슬라 주가의 변동성에 영향을 미치는 다양한 요인을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 구성하는 것이 중요합니다.
결론
이번 기사에서 스페이스X의 28.5조 달러 시장 규모 전망이 '부조리하다'는 분석가들의 비판이 테슬라 주가에 미치는 영향을 분석했습니다. 단기적으로는 과대 포장된 시장 규모 전망이 주가에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있지만, 장기적으로는 스페이스X의 성장 가능성과 스타십 프로젝트의 성공 가능성을 고려해야 합니다. 투자자들은 스페이스X의 실적과 성장 전망을 신중히 평가하여 포트폴리오를 구성하는 것이 중요합니다.
Original Article
Tesla Stock Slips Overnight: Retail Turns Cautious On SpaceX Merger Hype As Analyst Questions ‘Absurd’ $2 Trillion Valuation
Stratechery analyst Ben Thompson called SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion TAM projection “absurd,” questioning the company’s AI-heavy valuation assumptions and rising losses.Bears like Prof G Markets co-host Ed Elson called the IPO filing “a trainwreck,” while ARK Invest’s Daniel Maguire defended the long-term Starship and launch-cost thesis.SpaceX IPO excitement continues fueling rallies across space stocks like ASTS, RKLB and SIDU.Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock slipped 2% in overnight trading heading into Thursday as investors weighed heavy SpaceX merger speculation against growing criticism of the company’s “crazy” valuation math and AI ambitions.TSLA stock jumped 2% on Wednesday, with shares on pace to record their second straight week in the green and their best month since September.SpaceX’s $28.5 Trillion AI Pitch Draws FireMuch of the controversy centered around SpaceX’s newly disclosed estimate that its total addressable market could hit $28.5 trillion, including a staggering $26.5 trillion from AI infrastructure, enterprise AI applications, subscriptions and advertising.Tech analyst Ben Thompson of Stratechery on Wednesday ridiculed the figures, calling the IPO filing “absurd” and mocking one of the filing’s “silly” charts. “In all seriousness, the numbers are obviously absurd, but then again, everything about this IPO is absurd,” Thompson said.The analyst said the valuation appeared disconnected from SpaceX’s current financials, noting that the company generated $18.67 billion in revenue last year, while posting nearly $4.9 billion in losses. Thompson also pointed to slowing revenue growth and escalating AI spending, partly from xAI integration costs.Analyst Says Musk Is Selling A Dream, Not Just A StockDespite the skepticism, Thompson stopped short of dismissing Musk’s broader vision entirely. Instead, the analyst said that Musk’s greatest strength may lie in his ability to turn seemingly unrealistic narratives into commercially viable industries through investor belief and capital formation.Thompson compared the phenomenon to earlier periods in Tesla’s history, when repeated stock offerings failed to weaken investor enthusiasm, as shareholders viewed Tesla as part of a broader tech movement rather than simply a car company. “It turned out, though, that TSLA was itself a meme,” Thompson said. The analyst also drew parallels to Apple’s famous “reality distortion field” by saying: “Musk offers a dream — Mars, fully autonomous vehicles, an addressable market of $28.5 trillion — and positions his companies and their stock as access to that dream,” Thompson said. “The question that matters, then, is not if the numbers make sense right now — they absolutely do not,” Thompson said. “What matters is if the dream is even possible.” The analyst added that space-based data centers and orbital computing infrastructure could eventually become commercially viable as launch costs decline.Early SpaceX Investor Sees Tesla Inevitable SpaceX MergerThe merger talks came into the spotlight again on Wednesday after early SpaceX investor Peter Diamandis said that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX could eventually become strategically inevitable.In a recent Bloomberg interview, Diamandis said that combining Tesla’s vehicle network, robotics capabilities and AI infrastructure with SpaceX’s launch systems, Starship program, and orbital communications network would create an unprecedented vertically integrated platform. “I put it not as a matter of if but only a matter of when those companies come together,” Diamandis said.The investor also suggested a merger could strengthen Musk’s control structure by leveraging the super-voting rights he currently holds at SpaceX but lacks at Tesla.Bears Call SpaceX IPO A ‘Trainwreck’Stratechery was not the lone bear criticizing SpaceX’s IPO filing from last week. Ed Elson, co-host of the Prof G Markets podcast, called the prospectus on X “a trainwreck” based on the company’s financials, AI integration strategy and aggressive valuation assumptions.Elson said that SpaceX’s slowing growth, heavy losses, and massive AI spending failed to justify the potentially largest IPO valuation in Wall Street history. However, bullish analysts argued that critics are underestimating the long-term impact of dramatically lower launch costs and reusable rocket systems.ARK Invest analyst Daniel Maguire said on X that the “real story” behind the IPO is not near-term financials but the rapid decline in launch costs enabled by Falcon 9 and Starship. According to Maguire, Starship could eventually reduce launch costs to below $100 per kilogram, unlocking the economic viability of orbital data centers and expanding opportunities for future space infrastructure.The analyst also noted that Falcon 9 reusability already helped SpaceX deploy more than 10,000 active Starlink satellites while generating billions in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) from the broadband business.SpaceX IPO Hype Fuels Rally In Space StocksThe highly anticipated blockbuster IPO filing has already spurred a sharp rally in space stocks such as AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab USA, and Sidus Space, among others, with investors viewing SpaceX as a long-term AI and orbital infrastructure powerhouse rather than just a rocket company. Bulls argue that if markets ultimately support the company’s targeted valuation, it could reshape how investors value the broader space sector, particularly companies related to satellite broadband, defense systems and future space-based computing infrastructure. Excitement intensified further after FTSE Russell floated new IPO inclusion rules that could allow giant newly listed companies like SpaceX to enter major indexes within days of listing, potentially opening the door to enormous passive-fund inflows.How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SpaceX?On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume, while SpaceX chatter remained ‘bullish’ with ‘extremely high’ activity levels.One user said, “Prediction: Tesla will never have a market cap higher than Nvidia. Once SpaceX goes public, its game over for Tesla.”https://stocktwits.com/99dollars/message/654517902Another user said that if Tesla was ever folded into SpaceX after an IPO, YieldMax’s TSLA-linked ETFs like TSLY and CRSH could face “structural changes: since the funds rely on TSLA stock and listed TSLA options. They suggested that YieldMax could either convert the ETFs into SpaceX-based products, liquidate them, or temporarily suspend creations and redemptions depending on how regulators and options markets evolve. https://stocktwits.com/Dragon_Trader_67/message/654565392So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s third-worst performer, down 2%. For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.Read Next: RKLB, ASTS Are Crushing Retail Space Trade On SpaceX IPO Buzz — But One Tiny Underdog Could Be The Real Moonshot