핵심요약

• 이란 전쟁과 엘니뇨는 2026-2027년을 농업 위험 구역으로 만듭니다.
• 이 두 현상은 지정학적, 산업적, 환경적 결과를 촉발하는 상호 연관성을 가집니다.
• 새로운 유라시아 물류 회랑을 따라 전략적 상호의존성이 형성됩니다.
• 국가 및 정부의 정당성이 상실되는 "서사 전쟁"이 심화됩니다.

도입

본 기사는 이란 전쟁의 결과와 엘니뇨라는 기후 현상이 결합하여 전 세계적인 "초긴장 상태"를 유발하는 현상을 분석합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 기후-지정학적 융합이 글로벌 농식품 시스템과 물류 공급망에 미치는 파급 효과를 이해해야 합니다. 이는 단순한 지역 분쟁을 넘어 전 지구적인 경제적 불안정성과 새로운 전략적 위험을 의미합니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 위험과 환경적 압력

이란 전쟁으로 인해 호르무즈 해협이 사실상 폐쇄될 위기에 처한 상황은 지정학적 위험을 극대화합니다. 이러한 지정학적 압력은 태평양의 엘니뇨와 같은 기후 현상과 결합하여 분리되어 있지만, 연쇄적인 지정학적, 산업적, 환경적 결과를 촉발합니다. 이는 단순한 사건의 나열이 아니라, 국가 및 정부의 정당성 상실을 동반하는 "서사 전쟁"을 통해 전 세계적 위기를 심화시킵니다. 특히 아프리카 인도양 연안과 같은 취약 지역에서 이러한 위험은 더욱 증폭되어, 새로운 지정학적 긴장이 환경적 요인과 결합하여 복합적인 위협을 형성합니다.

본문 2: 새로운 전략적 상호의존성

이러한 위기 상황은 새로운 형태의 전략적 상호의존성을 발생시킵니다. 지리적 요인과 공통 전략적 지평선에 의해 연결된 새로운 유라시아 물류 회랑을 따라 이러한 상호의존성이 나타나고 있습니다. 이는 단순히 물리적인 이동 경로를 넘어, 에너지, 식량, 원자재의 흐름에 대한 통제권을 둘러싼 경쟁을 의미합니다. 따라서 각 국가는 이러한 새로운 지정학적 흐름 속에서 스스로를 재정립해야 하는 압력을 받게 되며, 이는 글로벌 공급망의 취약성을 드러냅니다. 이는 장기적으로 물류 비용의 변동성과 공급망의 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다.

본문 3: 농식품 시스템에 대한 영향과 전망

기후와 지정학적 위기의 결합은 농식품 시스템에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다. 2026-2027년의 농업 위험 구역화는 작물 생산의 불안정성과 식량 안보에 대한 우려를 증폭시킵니다. 특히 취약 지역의 농업 시스템은 외부 충격에 더욱 민감하게 반응하며, 이는 식량 가격의 변동성과 인플레이션 압력으로 이어질 수 있습니다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 이러한 복합 위기는 각 국가의 경제적 회복탄력성을 시험하게 될 것입니다. 따라서 글로벌 투자자들은 지정학적 리스크와 기후 변화의 상호작용을 고려하여 농업 및 물류 관련 자산에 대한 포트폴리오 재조정을 신중하게 검토해야 할 필요성이 있습니다.

결론

결론적으로, 이란 전쟁과 엘니뇨의 결합은 분리된 현상이 아닌, 상호작용하는 거대한 글로벌 위기입니다. 이는 국가의 정당성 위기와 새로운 전략적 상호의존성이라는 두 가지 축을 중심으로 전 세계적인 "서사 전쟁"을 촉발하고 있습니다. 향후 글로벌 경제 환경은 이러한 기후-지정학적 변동성이 더욱 증폭될 가능성이 높으므로, 공급망 안정성과 기후 적응 능력을 핵심 투자 기준으로 삼아 장기적인 전망을 예측해야 할 것입니다. 특히 새로운 유라시아 물류 회랑의 안정성이 향후 경제 성장의 핵심 변수가 될 전망입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTFBRcmNHTl8zVlVPMWJkZEJjSjEwcHludllMY2QxczdXVm5ISTZ3RG5QWm5LZXFUOTMxNWpNa3paYV92d0lEQnp0Q1l3bmtCeXMtQmNXd0lRc2lKV1N2SV9uSVpzdjJZUUxCWWU3TG9raG9PVUU?oc=5

The Iran War and El Niño 2026: From Global Crisis to the War of Narratives - Small Wars Journal

This paper focuses on how the Iran war consequences combine with those of El Niño, triggering a “hypersiege” situation that engulfs societies all around the world. This climate-geopolitics nexus exerts an enormous and complex pressure on the worldwide agri-food systems, turning 2026-2027 into an agricultural danger zone.

This crisis is particularly dangerous in vulnerable spaces, such as the African façade of the Indian Ocean, where it turbocharges the political tensions that turbocharge multiple and overlapping narrative wars that literally weaponize the political field. This is especially true in vulnerable and strategically complex spaces, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo or the African façade of the Indian Ocean.

Thus, states must reinvent themselves to face the new security challenges generated by the hypersiege emerging from the worldwide combination of material, narrative, and political crisis. Especially, new forms of strategic interdependencies appear along new Eurasian logistics corridors, united by geography and common strategic horizons.

As the Iran war triggered the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz , a particularly powerful El Niño event is unfolding in the Pacific Ocean. These two phenomena are entirely uncorrelated and independent. However, they are triggering cascading geopolitical, industrial, and environmental consequences that are converging to spark a global crisis. This crisis is accompanied by a loss of legitimacy for states and governments—a process amplified by a “war of narratives” playing out at both the national and international levels.

The previous event took place in 2023–2024 and was deemed as being strong . El Niño is a cyclical climate phenomenon that occurs every three to seven years. El Niño is a cyclical climate and oceanic phenomenon that occurs when the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms over a period of one to three years. This rapid warming of the ocean surface exerts thermal forcing on the atmosphere.

Consequently, El Niño events trigger cascades of extreme weather phenomena worldwide, particularly as they now exacerbate climate change . For instance, during the 2023–2024 El Niño event, prolonged heatwaves in South Asia had devastating effects on grain and rice harvests while simultaneously triggering large-scale weather disasters. However, in 2026, these extreme weather events will impact agricultural regions already suffering from the fertilizer crisis caused by the war involving Iran.

In 2026, the Iran War and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz halted the export of millions of tons of nitrogen-based fertilizers —produced notably with Qatari natural gas—precisely during the Northern Hemisphere planting season. Consequently, the effects of El Niño will impact agricultural regions already strained by a lack of inputs or by the near doubling of their prices. This means there’s a global agricultural-food crisis that is currently unfolding and that will imprint 2026-2027, with all the social, political, and geopolitical consequences it may trigger.

As this global agri-food crisis takes hold, it intertwines with and exacerbates pre-existing national and international tensions in regions of strategic friction—tensions that manifest particularly through a war of narratives. Indeed, the weaponization of narratives allows the conflict to shift into the realm conventionally reserved for politics.

Furthermore, the escalation of this narrative war makes it possible to map the areas where the intersection of the Iran War’s consequences and El Niño’s effects creates particularly destabilizing social, political, and geopolitical impacts. This turns 2026 into the year of the global hypersiege —a historic turning point driven by the convergence of the Iran ​​crisis, war, and climate change.

For several years—and particularly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, whose effects compounded with those of El Niño in 2023—contemporary societies have been in a state of hypersiege.

During an El Niño episode , the temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can rise by up to 3°C, causing a warming of the entire atmosphere. However, since the beginning of the 21st century, El Niño has been “turbocharging” the effects of climate change, making the consequences of these episodes increasingly intense and widespread.

Indeed, El Niño has a direct impac t on the climatic regions of South America. For instance, over the centuries, El Niño episodes have had severe repercussions in northeastern South America—particularly in Brazil—by triggering prolonged droughts. These impacts have been compounded by the effects of the war in Ukraine . Yet, the consequences of an El Niño event ripple out across the globe.

The tropical world is the first to be heavily affected. Historically, El Niño events have triggered droughts that devastated the Philippines, Indonesia, northern Australia, southern China, Southeast Asia, India, Pakistan, Madagascar, Southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon. Subsequently, the effects can spread to northern China, Iran, southern Russia and Ukraine, the Maghreb, and the northern United States, while also impacting Europe.

El Niño and the Heightened Vulnerability of Societies

As various episodes since the start of the 21st century have demonstrated, the extreme weather events triggered by El Niño are becoming increasingly violent and are extending across a vast scale. The impacts are particularly dangerous for agricultural areas. The resulting yield declines place production systems and global food markets under strain.

In some countries, this translates into rising prices, but in others—such as the Sahel region —access to food and water resources itself is curtailed and threatened, effectively placing this vast region in a situation akin to a semi-continental siege. This is especially perilous in a region where failed states are unable to prevent radical Islamist groups from extending social control over populations, notably by controlling water sources and access to food supplies.

Geopolitics and Extreme Climate: 2023

El Niño events have historically triggered major climate disasters—such as droughts, floods, water stress, and crop failures—worldwide. The interplay between climate change and El Niño was particularly intense in 2023–2024, driven by systemic interactions between a destabilized climate and the major geopolitical upheavals accompanying the war in Ukraine. In particular, restrictions on Russian and Ukrainian grain exports—caused by the war and sanctions—along with constraints on nitrogen fertilizers produced using Russian gas, have affected the food sectors of disadvantaged nations while simultaneously driving global food price inflation.

Iran and El Niño: The 2026 Shock

In 2026, driven by the Iran war, a new El Niño event is reigniting “hypersiege” dynamics. Since early March 2026, the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted daily exports accounting for 20% of global oil production and trade, 19% of natural gas production, and 30% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports. While a significant share of oil and gas is converted into energy, substantial quantities are also used in petrochemicals and nitrogen fertilizer production, with millions of tons passing through the Strait of Hormuz each month. Crucially, the timing of the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz coincides with the planting season in the Northern Hemisphere.

Since early March 2026, agricultural systems worldwide have faced pressure to adjust 2026 planting plans in response to surging fertilizer prices , which are rising much faster than food prices. However, this global agricultural vulnerability, triggered by the Iran war, is compounding the current and anticipated effects of the 2026 El Niño. Strategic impacts are intertwined with pre-existing tensions, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Indian Ocean.

Amid the convergence of the Iran war and the 2026 El Niño, the Indian Ocean must be viewed as a vulnerable information space in which material crises can be interpreted, instrumentalized, and transformed into security risks. Since March 2026, this “Hormuz shock” has posed an exponentially greater threat to global food security than the 2022 Ukraine shock; meanwhile, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has warned that fertilizer shortages will jeopardize upcoming harvests in the most vulnerable economies. In parallel, El Niño alters rainfall patterns, intensifies droughts, jeopardizes harvests, and amplifies certain extreme weather events.

El Niño episodes affect more than 70% of the world’s agricultural districts , resulting in significant production losses. In the Southern Africa and Indian Ocean region, over 30 million people are already facing acute food insecurity linked to these climate disruptions. As a result, although the causes of these two phenomena are independent, their effects converge in societies already marked by food dependency, poverty, institutional mistrust, and the rapid spread of rumors on social media.

Africa already offers documented examples of this shift. The Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—particularly in the east of the country between 2018 and 2020—demonstrated how a genuine health crisis could escalate into a crisis of confidence and public order. In certain areas, Ebola was perceived not as a medical emergency, but as a political fabrication, a means for NGOs to profit, or a threat introduced by healthcare workers themselves. In eastern DRC, a significant portion of the population also expressed active mistrust of health institutions, refused to believe the disease existed, or attributed the epidemic to political or foreign machinations—perceptions directly linked to refusals of treatment and obstruction of the response effort.

Conflicting Interpretations, Wars, and Epidemics

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTFBRcmNHTl8zVlVPMWJkZEJjSjEwcHludllMY2QxczdXVm5ISTZ3RG5QWm5LZXFUOTMxNWpNa3paYV92d0lEQnp0Q1l3bmtCeXMtQmNXd0lRc2lKV1N2SV9uSVpzdjJZUUxCWWU3TG9raG9PVUU?oc=5