퀄컴, 실적 발표 후 주가 37% 하락: 매수 기회인가?
Qualcomm Is Down 37% From Its High and Reports Wednesday. Is the Stock a Buy?
최근 주가 하락에도 불구하고, 애널리스트들의 목표 주가가 현재 가격 대비 36% 높다는 점은 반등 여력을 시사하며 긍정적인 기회를 제공합니다.
핵심 요약
퀄컴 주가는 최근 실적 발표 후 37% 하락했으며, 메모리 공급 제약으로 인해 향후 실적에 대한 불확실성이 존재합니다.
앞서 분석한 바와 같이, 퀄컴에 대한 투자 판단은 단기적인 주가 변동성보다는 메모리 공급망의 구조적 안정화 추세와 휴대폰 시장의 수요 회복 속도를 중심으로 접근해야 합니다. 현재 주가 하락은 메모리 환경의 어려움이 단기적인 실적에 반영된 결과이지만, 애널리스트들의 목표 주가는 이러한 단기적 어려움을 넘어선 장기적인 가치에 대한 기대를 반영하고 있습니다. 핵심은 메모리 공급 제약이 언제 해소될 것이며, 휴대폰 제조사들이 재고를 조정하고 수요를 회복할 시점이 언제인지에 대한 시장의 예측입니다. 퀄컴이 메모리 외 다른 분야, 예를 들어 데이터센터나 AI 관련 반도체에서의 성장 동력을 얼마나 효과적으로 확보하고 있는지를 평가하는 것이 중요합니다. 만약 메모리 시장의 공급 제약이 장기화될 경우, 이는 퀄컴의 마진과 성장 잠재력에 지속적인 제약으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 메모리 시장의 거시 경제적 흐름과 휴대폰 시장의 특정 지역별 수요 변화를 동시에 분석해야 합니다. 이러한 다각적인 분석을 통해 단기적인 주가 변동성에 흔들리지 않고 퀄컴의 장기적인 경쟁 우위와 미래 성장 가능성을 평가할 수 있을 것입니다. 향후 분기 실적 발표 시, 메모리 공급 상황과 휴대폰 제조사들의 재고 변화 추이를 면밀히 관찰하는 것이 핵심적인 과제가 될 것입니다.
Original Article
Qualcomm Is Down 37% From Its High and Reports Wednesday. Is the Stock a Buy?
Qualcomm ( QCOM -4.21% ) trades at $162.88 as of this writing, about 37% below its 52-week high of $259.92. The 36 analysts covering the chipmaker rate it, on average, a hold. Yet those same analysts carry an average price target of $221.23, about 36% above the stock.
What gives? In short, shares have pulled back sharply -- and most analysts covering the stock haven't updated their ratings. So, is this a buying opportunity? With the company reporting fiscal third-quarter results after the market closes Wednesday, this is a timely question worth considering.
What's leading to some caution
Qualcomm's most recent report shows some reasons to be cautious. Revenue for the fiscal second quarter (the period ended March 29, 2026) came in at $10.6 billion, down 3% year over year, and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share fell 7% to $2.65. And the underlying trouble sat exactly where the company's chip revenue is most concentrated. Handset chips, at $6.0 billion of revenue, fell 13% from the year-ago period.
"We are pleased to deliver results in line with our guidance, reflecting solid execution as we navigate a challenging memory environment," said CEO Cristiano Amon in the company's fiscal second-quarter earnings release.
That memory reference is the near-term story. Memory chip prices have surged, squeezing the budgets of the phone makers that buy Qualcomm's processors. Qualcomm reportedly answered on July 24, telling customers it will raise chip prices by double digits on products shipped after Sept. 1. Guidance for the quarter being reported Wednesday calls for revenue of $9.2 billion to $10.0 billion, below last quarter at the midpoint, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.10 to $2.30. Management said the outlook reflects memory supply constraints hitting demand from several handset makers. It also said it expects handset revenue from Chinese customers to bottom in the quarter and return to sequential growth the following one -- a specific, checkable claim that Wednesday's guidance will either support or undercut.
Then there is Apple . The iPhone maker began shipping phones with its own in-house modem chip in early 2025 and has reportedly been working toward dropping Qualcomm's modems across its lineup, a transition reported to run through 2027. That transition has hung over this stock for years, and it lands on the same handset line the memory squeeze is hitting now.
But there's some good news, too.
Automotive revenue rose 38% year over year last quarter to a record $1.3 billion, and its Internet of Things (IoT) revenue grew 9% to $1.7 billion. Together, the two grew 20%, and they now account for about a third of chip segment revenue. Qualcomm's licensing business (the patent royalties phone makers pay to use its cellular technology) added $1.4 billion on top, at a 72% pre-tax margin.
The company is also pushing into data centers. Amon said a custom silicon engagement with a leading hyperscaler (one of the giant cloud computing providers) remains on track for initial shipments later this calendar year. At an investor day in June, management set a target of more than $15 billion of data center revenue by fiscal 2029, up from about $300 million this year.
And Qualcomm continues returning capital to shareholders. It paid out and repurchased $3.7 billion in the fiscal second quarter, bought back $5.4 billion of stock in the first half of its fiscal year, and announced a new $20 billion repurchase authorization. At the current price, the dividend yields 2.2%.
To be clear, no price target makes an investment case on its own, and the distance to this one is not a reason to buy the stock. What the gap shows is simply that the analysts who study this company most closely think the diversification is worth considerably more than a memory-squeezed handset cycle. But there are still risks.
After all, at about 17 times forward earnings with a 2.2% yield, a lot of handset erosion is arguably already in the price.
So here is what I'd watch Wednesday afternoon. First, does management's call for a bottom in Chinese handset revenue survive contact with the new guidance? And second, is automotive still compounding at anything near last quarter's pace? This may be a buying opportunity. But I'd personally rather wait for more information before considering buying, even if the stock rebounds too fast for me to get an opportunity to own shares.