엔비디아 실적, 가이던스와 젠슨 황의 자신감에 달려
Nvidia earnings may come down to guidance and Jensen Huang's confidence
현재 실적보다는 미래 가이던스와 AI 성과의 불확실성에 투자자 관심이 집중될 것으로 판단됩니다.
핵심 요약
엔비디아의 미래는 하이퍼스케일러의 지속적인 지출과 젠슨 황의 자신감에 달려 있으며, 이는 실적보다 AI 성과에 대한 불확실성을 반영합니다.
Original Article
Nvidia earnings may come down to guidance and Jensen Huang's confidence
Nvidia ( NVDA ) is just days away from releasing second quarter earnings results this Wednesday, August 26, as Wall Street expects quarterly revenue of $92 billion.
The Morning Brief's Jake Conley sits down with Barron's senior markets analysis writer Paul La Monica and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield to discuss why excellent earnings may still not be enough to impress investors in this stage of the AI cycle.
The street's looking for roughly $92 billion in quarterly sales. This would come after 14 consecutive earnings beats, but picture's a little more complicated. Uh we got reporting from Bloomberg, customers facing server price increases of about 15%. Nvidia spending several billion on an open model push to compete with China. We got the $500 billion financing deal. There's a lot of complication here. and I always come back to the fact that Nvidia feels less to me like one company and more like the bellweather.
It may not be enough, depending on what the tone is like from Jensen Wong, what the guidance looks like. I think a lot of investors are rightfully worried about the massive amounts of money that has been spent and will continue to be spent by their hyperscaler customers on AI and what the inevitable payoff will be because even now, some of the Mag 7 companies that are cash rich are
going free cash flow negative to fund this spending. It's not just Oracle anymore. It was for a time where it's like, oh, that's just an Oracle problem. Yeah, exactly. But now there are many other companies in Big Tech that are also spending in a somewhat profligate manner. and there are still questions about what the ultimate AI payoff will be.
We are bullish on chips, but I told our traders to take that down. Not because we really thought the chip companies were overvalued, because like, look, Nvidia is at 16 times. Like that's a pretty good risk reward going into earnings. But everybody likes likes to fade it. But it was really because Amazon and all the hyperscalers were getting pounded on every day. And I used to work at big hedge funds and you have to be dollar neutral. So every time if you want to buy uh Micron, you got to short Amazon. And you want to short these big hyper liquid companies because you don't want to get run over like being short Moderna. Right. And so that's why I think Nvidia reports, they beat, they're trading at 16 times and maybe they don't go up because just hedge funds and other short-term traders or even like we run mutual funds like QBall and it's a challenging to be equal weight in Nvidia. We have to be 8% of the portfolio. We have concentration limits. Right. And so, what are we going to go to 10 because they beat? So that's what I think is the another dynamic, but we could see that it was getting overdone too much in chips and not in hyper scalers. and we like hyper scalers. We're okay, free cash flow is free until it's not. So you can say, oh, cable companies, it's fantastic, free cash flow. They don't spend any money. They should have been investing in streaming. And so so we like earnings and don't focus as much on free cash flow, which is controversial, but that's what I learned in business school. Earnings are a better predictor of free cash flow in the long run.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-earnings-may-come-down-140000999.html?.tsrc=rss