핵심요약

• 이란 내전 관련 인명 피해 추정치는 정부 3,117명, 유엔 보고관 '수만 명', 의료진 추산 30,000명으로 큰 차이를 보입니다.
• 미국-이스라엘 공습으로 한 달 동안 249명의 여성 민간인이 사망했습니다.
• 이란 정부는 폭력 사태를 여성주의자 및 시위대에 대한 탄압을 정당화하는 명분으로 사용했습니다.
• 국제사회는 국가의 폭력에 대응하기 위한 책임(R2P)을 논의하고 있으나, 러시아와 중국의 거부권 행사로 인해 실질적인 조치가 제한될 수 있습니다.

도입

본 기사는 이란 내전 상황이 국제 사회와 지정학적 역학 관계에 미치는 영향을 분석합니다. 이란에서 발생한 폭력 사태는 단순한 국내 정치 문제를 넘어 국제 인권법과 집단 안보 체계에 대한 근본적인 질문을 던집니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 위험이 에너지 시장, 중동 지역의 정치적 안정성, 그리고 국제 규범의 적용 범위에 미치는 파급 효과를 면밀히 주시해야 합니다.

본문 1: 인권 침해와 국제법의 딜레마

이란 내전 상황은 국제법적 책임과 인권 보호의 한계를 명확히 보여줍니다. Nasrin Sotoudeh와 같은 인권 운동가들이 국제법(유엔 헌장 제7장 및 평화 위협 관련 조항)의 이행을 요구했음에도 불구하고, 러시아와 중국이라는 상임이사국이 거부권을 행사할 가능성이 있다는 점은 국제 사회의 개입 의지에 제약을 가합니다. 이는 '보호 책임(Responsibility to Protect, R2P)' 원칙이 실제 위기 상황에서 효과적으로 작동하기 위해서는 강대국의 정치적 이해관계가 우선적으로 고려되어야 하는 복잡한 딜레마를 제시합니다. 즉, 인도주의적 개입의 필요성과 강대국의 전략적 이익 간의 충돌이 발생합니다.

본문 2: 지정학적 갈등의 악순환과 위험 요소

이란 정부가 폭력을 이용하여 내부 반대 세력과 여성 운동을 탄압하는 행위는 지정학적 긴장을 심화시키는 악순환을 초래합니다. 이러한 내부적 억압은 외부 세력의 개입 여부를 결정하는 데 중요한 변수가 됩니다. 특히 러시아와 중국이 이란의 전략적 파트너로서 유엔 안보리에서 거부권을 행사할 경우, 국제 사회의 개입 노력이 무력화될 위험이 있습니다. 이는 특정 지역의 불안정성이 국제 질서 전반의 안정성을 위협하는 잠재적 위험 요소로 작용할 수 있음을 의미하며, 이는 에너지 공급망과 글로벌 무역에 간접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 국제적 대응의 한계

장기적인 관점에서 볼 때, 이란 내전의 해결은 단순히 국내 정치적 문제가 아닌 국제 규범의 실효성을 시험하는 장기적인 과제가 될 것입니다. 국제 사회가 인권 보호를 위한 집단 행동을 취하기 위해서는 강대국의 전략적 이해관계를 넘어선 보편적인 합의를 도출해야 합니다. 따라서 향후 국제사회의 대응은 법적 구속력과 정치적 실행력 사이의 간극을 줄이는 방향으로 나아가야 할 것입니다. 국제적 협력의 한계에도 불구하고, 인권과 평화의 가치를 수호하기 위한 지속적인 외교적 압박과 국제법의 강화 노력이 필요합니다.

결론

이란의 폭력 사태는 인권과 국제법 준수에 대한 중대한 도전을 보여주며, 국제 사회가 직면한 개입의 한계를 명확히 합니다. 향후 이 지역의 안정은 강대국의 전략적 선택과 국제 규범의 실효적인 적용 여부에 달려있다는 점이 핵심입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 불확실성이 중동 지역의 에너지 및 정치적 안정성에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링해야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOcTdBRExaa1ZITU1vTEtScE1yb0tPYm8ySWoxcG1kWm9qeVl0TDd3Q3h5SUhkaF9NWkxRLWx2WjNXUnNhTWhhRnB2b0xtdUtRUXMyMkFKcGhQMEZYRW9VQ3Z4QktPY3lTZTlaOVlVdXlQcFZ3UnNCdWl4d293NUpBaVlwZEJadHVySmdGRUtsT1B3cFhnT1lDeHNjNzVsQQ?oc=5

US War on Iran Devastating for Women Who Want Life and Freedom - Truthdig

Iran’s January protests were a “bloodbath,” Nasrin Sotoudeh said as she called for international support for women from Tehran in February. Sotoudeh, a prominent Iranian human rights lawyer who has been repeatedly arrested over the past two decades for her activism, has spent more than six years in prison. She was referring to protests that initially reacted to the collapse of the rial at the very end of December last year, then grew into a nationwide call for government leaders to step down. Iranian security forces responded with live fire, and estimates vary widely of how many they killed; from the government’s figure of 3,117 , to the U.N. Special Rapporteur’s claim that there were “tens of thousands,” and Iranian medical professionals’ estimate of 30,000.

Two weeks after Sotoudeh’s call, on Feb. 28, the bombs came. Over the following month alone, U.S.-Israeli strikes killed 249 women in Iran, all civilians, according to government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani. But beyond the direct toll on people and the destruction of infrastructure, the bombing has also provided the Iranian government with a pretext of national unity, which it has used to intensify its crackdown on feminists and protesters.

Sotoudeh saw the January massacres as a “final blow” to Iranian society and saw no other option but to publicly ask for the implementation of international law within the framework of Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter and its provisions around threats to peace — but she did not ask for war. She invoked the Responsibility to Protect, the doctrine the United Nations adopted by consensus in 2005, under which the international community bears responsibility to act — through encouragement, peaceful collective action or, as a last resort, blockades or the use of force through the U.N. Charter — if a state turns its guns on its own people.

Russia or China — strategic partners of Iran and two of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — could veto the whole effort, Sotoudeh acknowledged. The Security Council is the only body with the legal power to authorize international action, from sanctions to force, under Chapter VII.

The bombs that rained down on Feb. 28 were not sanctioned by the Security Council. What began that day was a unilateral war waged by Washington and Tel Aviv and clearly illegal. U.S. president Donald Trump described the bombs that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader in the first hours of war as aimed at regime change and nuclear disarmament. He spoke of “safety” and “freedom” for Iranians, language that implicitly included Iranian women — women whose long struggle had captured the world’s imagination with the Woman Life Freedom protests of 2022.

But here is the irony: for years, the Islamic Republic has been cast globally as an outlaw state, a violator of international norms, while the civilians it terrorizes keep reaching for the U.N. Charter as their last line of defense. Yet it is those who claim to be on the side of the law who bombed straight past it. Between Feb. 28 and Apr. 7, U.S. and Israeli air strikes killed at least 2,362 civilians in Iran, 383 of them children.

“When Nasrin (Sotoudeh) called for the international community to step in, I was shocked,” Elahe, a teacher from east Tehran who was at the forefront of the Woman Life Freedom demonstrations, tells Truthdig. For her safety, her full name hasn’t been used.

“But then I realized that is all we had left. We have risen up peacefully against the regime time after time. And instead of listening, they arrest us. In January, they were killing us in the streets. What other choice did we have then to call for outside protection?” She pauses, then shrugs with a long sigh. Her weariness seems to fill up the video screen connecting us.

“I felt like a traitor to my own country when I agreed with her, but I was sure that international law would help to protect us. I mean, otherwise what’s it for?”

She shrugs again, and this time her words seem painful to even shape as she tells me, “But look how wrong we were! The way the bombs came and killed those girls in Minab, in hospitals, schools, so many innocent people… and obviously (the U.S. and Israel) don’t care about the Iranian people at all. We were fools to believe in America.”

Instead of helping anyone, the U.S.-led war has “strengthened the Islamic Republic (of Iran)” writes Firoozeh Farvardin, a Vienna-based feminist researcher who has spent years mapping the Iranian women’s movement. In this way, the war has allowed the Iranian government “to present itself as the defender of national sovereignty … and reduced the space for autonomous feminist politics.”

There is bitter irony here too; a war launched in the name of liberating Iranians handed the Iranian government an easy excuse to do just the opposite. Criticism could be quashed in the name of national unity in the face of foreign aggression, and for sovereignty under siege.

That manipulation of a cause has been taken a step further in the use of the Women Life Freedom slogan to justify war. As Beirut-based feminist writer Sahla Omar, writing for Raseef22 noted, the slogan has been “torn from its life-affirming origins in resistance” after the Israeli prime minister invoked it various times from November 2024 to June 2025 to justify future military action. Israel then bombed Iran from June 13 to 24, last year.

“When we heard Netanyahu start saying ‘Zan Zendeghi Azadi’ last year when Israel fought its first war against us, we felt desperate, like our beautiful movement was being co-opted.” says Monica, a south Tehrani activist with no headscarf in sight and a belly button ring on full display. Her full name has been withheld for her safety.

“And seeing how the war has escalated this year, I now understand the term ‘embedded feminism,’ which I learnt when I was reading feminist theory for myself but didn’t really get until now,” she tells Truthdig. “It’s where a state co-opts feminist language to sell a war as a humanitarian project. And I think now this is what happened to Iran.”

Women like Monica continue to defy the law and go in public without a hijab, a gain they have fought for over the past year. Indeed, all the women I spoke to over video call for this article did not wear a hijab.

However, they are clear that the initial easing of hijab enforcement as the bombing began this year was not because the government was conceding, but because it needed bodies on the street for “national unity.”

Iranian women told reporters exactly this in the first weeks of the current war. “Right now, they are just distracted by the war,” one woman, Zahra, told France24 . “But after that, who knows what they will do about it.”

On July 21, she was proven right. Cafés — the most visible public spaces where the unveiled and the veiled sit side by side — were shut down for failure to observe Islamic norms. On central Tehran’s Sanaei and Iranshahr streets, café owners were given a range of justifications for the closures, from women’s noncompliance with mandatory hijab to blocking the pavement.

With the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, one might have expected the resulting changes in the top levels of government to bring some moderation. But the wave of executions of prisoners that followed — including some protestors from the January demonstrations — dispels that notion.

“Iranian authorities are using the cover of what they call ‘wartime conditions’ to intensify their repression of dissent through mass arbitrary arrest,” noted Amnesty International.

The government’s own police chief, Ahmadreza Radan, confirmed the scale of repression himself on May 17, announcing that more than 6,500 “traitors and spies” had been arrested since the war began. Amnesty has also documented at least 41 people “arbitrarily executed” since the bombing started this year, with at least 78 more protesters and dissidents currently facing death sentences.

Every one of those trials and executions violates the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which Iran ratified in 1976 . Likewise, every strike that kills civilians, as opposed to military targets, violates the Geneva Conventions and the U.N. Charter’s prohibition on the use of force. Yet neither Tehran nor Washington nor Tel Aviv seem to feel bound by these laws they themselves have ratified .

Those killed are not abstractions. They are daughters, teachers, filmmakers and children. Whether it is Israel and the U.S.’s illegal bombs, or the Iranian government’s war against its own people, Iranian civilians are beset by forces seemingly determined to ignore international law.

The damage of the bombings only starts with the body count. When hospitals are hit, when pharmaceutical factories are destroyed, it is society’s most vulnerable — women, people with disabilities or long-term illnesses, and the elderly — who suffer, deprived of the medical services they need.

The war has compounded existing economic problems, seeing inflation increase further and the country’s supply of goods impacted by trade isolation. Employers are tightening their belts, with unemployment following.

In a harsh economic landscape, it is always women who suffer more. The Statistical Center of Iran reported in June that women’s labor-force participation has collapsed to 12% , and it explicitly blamed “the shadow of war.” The center noted that men who lost work are finding their way back, but women are not.

Youth unemployment among women stands at 35% , almost double the rate for young men. Layer that onto food inflation running at 134.6% year-on-year, and this is what so-called “liberation” costs.

Mariam, an artisan in Isfahan, runs her own small fashion brand using her town’s famous traditional block printing called qalamkari to create tailor-made contemporary clothes. “I haven’t had an order since June last year,” she tells me in her lilting accent. For her safety, her full name has not been used.

Like millions of Iranian entrepreneurs, she used to have a business account on Instagram. Before the two internet blackouts this year — first in January during the protests, then for 88 days during the war — Iran’s Chamber of Commerce estimated at least 500,000 solely Instagram-based shops were operating in the country, supporting roughly one million jobs. Afshin Kolahi, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, put direct daily losses due to the internet blackouts at US$30-40 million , with indirect losses likely twice that.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOcTdBRExaa1ZITU1vTEtScE1yb0tPYm8ySWoxcG1kWm9qeVl0TDd3Q3h5SUhkaF9NWkxRLWx2WjNXUnNhTWhhRnB2b0xtdUtRUXMyMkFKcGhQMEZYRW9VQ3Z4QktPY3lTZTlaOVlVdXlQcFZ3UnNCdWl4d293NUpBaVlwZEJadHVySmdGRUtsT1B3cFhnT1lDeHNjNzVsQQ?oc=5