핵심요약

• 2026년 수익 전망을 1주당 $7~$11로 하향조정 (이전 $12~$14)
• 2분기 수익 전망 1주당 $1~$2로, 분석가 예상치($2.08) 하회 전망
• 1분기 매출 146.1억 달러, 전년 대비 10% 이상 증가
• 1분기 순이익 6.99억 달러, 전년 대비 80% 증가
• 연료비 상승에 따른 운항 계획 조정으로 2분기부터 2%까지 용량 증가 전망

도입

유나이티드항공의 수익 전망 하향조정은 항공업계에 중요한 신호입니다. 연료비 상승이 수익성에 미치는 영향을 보여주며, 투자자들은 항공사의 유연성과 전략적 대응 능력을 평가할 필요가 있습니다. 특히, 이란 전쟁과 같은 지정학적 리스크가 항공사 수익성에 미치는 영향이 주목받고 있습니다.

본문 1: 연료비 상승의 수익성 영향

유나이티드항공은 2026년 수익 전망을 1주당 $7~$11로 하향조정했습니다. 이는 연료비 상승이 주요 원인입니다. 2분기 연료비 평균 가격을 1갤런당 $4.30으로 예상하며, 이는 수익성에 큰 영향을 미칩니다. 연료비 상승에 따른 수익성 악화는 항공사 전체의 수익 전망을 부정적으로 만드는 요인입니다. 특히, 연료비 상승은 항공사의 운영 비용을 증가시키며, 이는 결국 수익성에 직결됩니다. 투자자들은 항공사의 연료비 관리 전략이 수익성에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 지켜볼 필요가 있습니다.

본문 2: 운항 계획 조정의 전략적 의미

유나이티드항공은 연료비 상승에 대응하여 운항 계획을 조정하고 있습니다. 2분기부터 용량을 2%까지 증가시킬 예정이며, 이는 연료비 상승에 따른 비용 절감을 목표로 합니다. 운항 계획 조정이 수익성에 미치는 영향은 장기적으로 중요합니다. 특히, 용량 조정이 항공사 수익성에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다. 운항 계획 조정이 항공사의 수익성 개선에 기여할 수 있는지 여부가 주목받고 있습니다. 투자자들은 항공사의 전략적 대응이 수익성에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 지켜볼 필요가 있습니다.

본문 3: 시장 반응과 투자 전략

유나이티드항공의 수익 전망 하향조정은 시장 반응을 불러일으켰습니다. 투자자들은 항공사의 연료비 관리 전략과 운항 계획 조정이 수익성에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 있습니다. 특히, 연료비 상승이 항공사 수익성에 미치는 영향이 장기적으로 중요합니다. 투자자들은 항공사의 전략적 대응이 수익성 개선에 기여할 수 있는지 여부를 주의 깊게 지켜볼 필요가 있습니다. 연료비 상승이 항공사 수익성에 미치는 영향이 장기적으로 중요하다는 점이 핵심입니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/united-airlines-ual-q1-2026-earnings.html

United Airlines slashes 2026 forecast as fuel costs surge, but demand remains strong

United Airlines slashed its 2026 earnings outlook Tuesday as it grapples with a surge in jet fuel prices due to the Iran war, but CEO Scott Kirby said demand remains strong.

United said it could earn between $7 and $11 a share on an adjusted basis this year, down from its previous forecast of between $12 and $14 a share that it released in January , more than a month before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Wall Street had already been adjusting its expectations for the year because of higher fuel. Analysts polled by LSEG had forecast that United's adjusted, full-year earnings would be $9.58 a share.

The carrier, like others, is trimming some of its planned flying this year to reduce costs. Lower capacity can drive up airfare, with fewer seats on the market.

For the second quarter, United forecast adjusted earnings of between $1 and $2 a share. Analysts had expected $2.08 a share for the quarter. United estimated its fuel price would average $4.30 a gallon in the second quarter.

The carrier said it expects its revenue to cover between 40% to 50% of the fuel price increase in the second quarter, as much as 80% in the third and between 85% and 100% by the end of the year.

United reiterated that it is tweaking its schedules to adjust to higher fuel, with capacity in the second half of the year expected to be flat to up about 2% on the year. It grew 3.4% in the first quarter.

Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended March 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:

Revenue overall rose more than 10%, to $14.61 billion, up from the $13.21 billion from a year before.

For the first quarter, United's net income rose 80% to $699 million, or $2.14 cents a share, compared with net income of $387 million, or $1.16 cents a share, a year earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, United posted earnings per share of $1.19 a share.

Unit revenue was up in every reported segment, including for domestic U.S. flights, where it rose 7.9% to $7.9 billion from a year earlier, signaling strong pricing power in the quarter.

Jet fuel in the U.S. was going for $3.51 a gallon on Monday, down from the high on April 2 of $4.78, but far above the $2.39 on Feb. 27, the day before the first attacks on Iran, according to prices assessed by Platts.

Airline executives have said demand has remained robust even while they have increased fares and checked bag fees as they pass along higher fuel prices to customers.

"Bookings are strong," Kirby told CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Wednesday.

United and the rest of the industry have become more reliant on travelers who are willing to shell out more for flights and bigger seats, and who are less affected by price increases.

Alaska Airlines pulled its 2026 forecast on Monday because of higher fuel prices. It has raised fares about $25, CEO Ben Minicucci told analysts Tuesday.

Kirby is likely to face questions on the company's 10:30 a.m. ET earnings call on Wednesday about his ambitions for a merger with another airline.

Kirby floated a potential merger with American Airlines to a Trump administration official earlier this year, according to a person familiar with the matter, but President Donald Trump said he was against the idea.

"I don't like having them merge," he told CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Tuesday morning. He said he would like someone to buy struggling discount carrier Spirit but he also suggested that the federal government could "help that one out."

American also rejected the idea of a merger with United last week.

When asked about floating the merger, Kirby declined to confirm the meeting to CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday but said: "We want to create a truly global airline."

Kirby reiterated his view that the U.S. is at a deficit in international air travel as customers fly on international competitors, some of which are state owned.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/united-airlines-ual-q1-2026-earnings.html