핵심요약

• 이란은 미국과 이스라엘과의 전쟁 후 수천 개의 드론과 미사일을 발사하며 더 강경해졌습니다.
• 스트레이트 오브 호르무즈 폐쇄로 2.3조 달러 규모의 걸프 국가 경제가 위협받고 있습니다.
• 미국-이란 MOU는 GCC 국가들의 안보 우려를 해결하지 못했습니다.
• 걸프 국가들은 이란과의 독자적인 협상과 새로운 방어 전략 수립을 준비하고 있습니다.

도입

이란-미국 전쟁은 걸프 국가들의 경제와 안보에 큰 영향을 미치고 있습니다. 특히, 스트레이트 오브 호르무즈의 폐쇄로 인한 에너지 수출 차질은 전 세계 경제에 큰 충격을 줄 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이 지역에서의 긴장 고조가 글로벌 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 지켜보아야 합니다.

본문 1: 에너지 시장 불안정성 증대

스트레이트 오브 호르무즈는 전 세계 석유와 가스의 20%가 통과하는 중요한 해상 경로입니다. 이란이 이 해협을 폐쇄함으로써 사우디아라비아, 아랍에미리트, 쿠웨이트 등 걸프 국가들의 에너지 수출이 크게 차질을 빚고 있습니다. 이란의 강경한 태도는 글로벌 에너지 시장의 불안정성을 높이고, 원유 가격의 급등을 유발할 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 에너지 의존도가 높은 국가들의 경제에 큰 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 특히, 이란의 새로운 위협이 지속될 경우, 글로벌 에너지 시장의 변동성이 더욱 커질 전망입니다.

본문 2: 걸프 국가들의 전략적 변화

GCC 국가들은 미국-이란 MOU가 그들의 안보 우려를 해결하지 못하자, 이란과의 독자적인 협상을 시작하고 있습니다. 이란의 강경한 태도와 새로운 위협에 대응하기 위해, 걸프 국가들은 방어 예산을 증대시키고, 새로운 안보 전략을 수립하고 있습니다. 이는 지역 내 군사 균형에 변화를 가져올 수 있습니다. 특히, 이란의 새로운 위협이 지속될 경우, 걸프 국가들의 군사 지출이 크게 증가할 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 지역 내 군사 산업에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

결론

이란-미국 전쟁은 걸프 국가들의 경제와 안보에 큰 영향을 미치고 있습니다. 특히, 스트레이트 오브 호르무즈의 폐쇄로 인한 에너지 시장 불안정성은 글로벌 경제에 큰 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이 지역에서의 긴장 고조가 글로벌 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 지켜보아야 합니다. 또한, 걸프 국가들의 새로운 안보 전략과 군사 지출 증대가 지역 내 군사 균형에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiQkFVX3lxTE42SEx1M3ctMmY3VDY3M2w4Ym14NklUM2xQVFpyZ2dBM1J3ak80LXBNU0JQbFlOdmFTV2R0YjJVODl4UQ?oc=5

Iran War Transforms Gulf Arab Region - الحرة

For Arab Gulf countries, the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran began with promises to topple a regime they had considered an enemy for decades.

Three months later, the battered Shia clerical regime in Tehran has not only survived but is emerging from the war more assertive and potentially wealthier.

Tehran launched thousands of drones and missiles at the six Sunni Arab Gulf monarchies that host U.S. and Western military bases. It also throttled the estimated $2.3 trillion hydrocarbon-dependent economies of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for these energy-rich countries and a fifth of global oil and gas.

Last week’s Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran provides a roadmap to a negotiated settlement between the two. Yet it says nothing about the key security concerns of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the regional security, political, and economic bloc.

Former officials and analysts see the Gulf nations adopting several new strategies to protect themselves. They are likely adapting to living with Tehran’s growing power, investing more resources in defense while their fragile unity further erodes.

“Gulf states will be disappointed that this war achieved none of the goals that the U.S. administration set out when it began,” said Gregory Gause, a Gulf expert at Washington’s Middle East Institute. “It leaves Iran in a position to threaten them again and to assert some kind of control over the Strait of Hormuz.”

Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 18, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Gause said the MOU between the U.S. and Iran does not commit Tehran to free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. “I think that’s going to be very disappointing to the Gulf states,” he said.

Yet Gulf nations appear to be negotiating on their own with Tehran. In an interview published June 24 in the Financial Times , Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said Gulf countries are working on a regional security framework with Iran. “That will hopefully have economic co-operation in the future between all of us — to bring the region back to stability,” he said.

Gawdat Bahgat, a professor of national security affairs at Washington’s National Defense University, said Gulf nations will feel relieved by the prospect of an end to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“You cannot overlook geography,” he said, referring to the Gulf nations. “They have to deal with Iran because it is not going anywhere.” He added that they will now be forced to adopt a new approach to Tehran, which they had long accused of undermining their security through its militant Shia allies across the Middle East and aggressive military posture in the shared waters of the Persian Gulf.

In contrast to previous crises, Bahgat pointed out, the six GCC members did not downgrade or sever ties with Iran during the war. “Even while Iran attacked them, they kept diplomatic channels open because the day after, they and Iran have no choice but to live together,” he said.

After the January 2016 ransacking of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, Riyadh cut diplomatic ties with Iran, prompting some other GCC and Arab nations to downgrade diplomatic ties with Tehran. However, Chinese mediation restored diplomatic ties between Tehran and Riyadh in 2023, leading to a degree of broader reconciliation between the nations that represent the Shia and Sunni Muslim worlds.

David Des Roches, a professor at Washington’s Thayer Marshall Institute, sees the Gulf nations facing a “pretty big moment” now that it is clear that their efforts to placate Iran through business and cultural ties did not shield them from its attacks.

Tehran targeted the UAE, he said, despite the emirate’s importance as a major conduit for Iranian international trade and investment.

“Iran is no longer a neighbor. It’s a threat,” Des Roches told MBN, adding that Gulf capitals will now be working diligently to figure out how to address this threat. “Until you feel confident in your ability to confront and defeat the threat, then you accommodate it,” he said.

Gause says the Gulf states are likely to maintain a strong security partnership with the U.S. because they have no viable alternative. Yet they will seek resilience by developing new security relationships with a range of countries, including Israel and nations in Europe, East Asia and South Asia. The region is already bolstering military ties to Turkey .

“It’s not going to be an abandonment of the United States, but it’s going to be hedging,” he said.

Pier Camillo Falasca, policy affairs manager at the Euro-Gulf Information Centre think tank in Rome, sees the Gulf countries questioning the old paradigm of seeking protection under a U.S. security umbrella and security guarantees.

“Similar to European nations, they are thinking that the American umbrella is not something that they should take for granted anymore,” he said, referring to the evolving discussions among Gulf nations seeking to diversify defense partnerships in the aftermath of the war. After the Trump administration scaled back its assistance to Ukraine, European nations stepped up to support the country against Russia.

Falasca cited Ukraine as an example of how Gulf nations are exploring new avenues to address their security vulnerabilities. As Gulf nations faced relentless Iranian drone attacks in March and April, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar concluded separate long-term defense agreements with Kyiv. They were eager to access its wartime expertise and technology in countering Iranian drones. During the first four years of the war, Moscow launched more than 55,000 Iranian Shahed drones against Ukraine.

“The Gulf countries understand that collaborating with the country possessing the most advanced drone technology is very important for their future,” he said.

Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026REUTERS/Raghed Waked/File Photo

Bahgat points out that Gulf countries are also deepening defense ties with China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, and other European nations, as part of their strategy to diversify security cooperation in anticipation of future uncertainty.

“They will try to diversify their security cooperation,” he said. “But they will also deepen security cooperation with the United States. They have no choice.”

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiQkFVX3lxTE42SEx1M3ctMmY3VDY3M2w4Ym14NklUM2xQVFpyZ2dBM1J3ak80LXBNU0JQbFlOdmFTV2R0YjJVODl4UQ?oc=5