핵심요약

• 테슬라 주가는 1% 하락하며, 스페이스X IPO 소문이 주요 원인
• 전 레만 브라더스 트레이더는 스페이스X의 2조 달러 평가에 대해 2000년 아마존 급등과 유사한 위험성을 경고
• 테슬라 2배 레버리지 ETF(TSLL) 2% 하락, 역매매 ETF(TSDD) 약 2% 상승
• 스페이스X IPO가 역사상 최대 규모가 될 전망

도입

이 기사는 스페이스X의 대규모 IPO가 테슬라 주가와 시장 전체에 미칠 잠재적 영향을 분석한 것입니다. 특히, 전 레만 브라더스 트레이더의 경고는 투자자들에게 과거의 기술 버블과 유사한 시나리오가 반복될 가능성을 상기시킵니다. 이는 AI와 우주 산업에 대한 과도한 투기 가능성을 시사합니다.

본문 1: 테슬라 주가 변동성의 원인 분석

테슬라 주가의 1% 하락은 스페이스X IPO 소문에 따른 시장 반응으로 해석됩니다. 특히, 테슬라 2배 레버리지 ETF(TSLL)의 2% 하락과 역매매 ETF(TSDD)의 약 2% 상승은 단기적 변동성을 강조합니다. 이는 투자자들이 스페이스X IPO에 대한 불확실성에 대해 방어적 포지션을 취하고 있음을 보여줍니다. 이는 테슬라 주가가 외부 요인에 민감하다는 점을 시사하며, 장기 투자자들에게는 신중한 접근이 필요함을 강조합니다.

본문 2: 스페이스X IPO의 과도한 평가 위험

전 레만 브라더스 트레이더의 경고는 스페이스X의 2조 달러 평가에 대해 2000년 아마존 급등과 유사한 위험성을 제기합니다. 그는 1,500조 달러에서 1,900조 달러의 미래 수익이 필요하다고 주장하며, 이는 현재 경제 규모를 초월하는 수준입니다. 이는 스페이스X가 테슬라급의 성장세를 유지하기 위해 불가능한 목표를 달성해야 한다는 점을 시사합니다. 이는 투자자들에게 과도한 기대와 현실적인 성장 가능성 사이의 간극을 인식할 필요가 있음을 강조합니다.

본문 3: 시장 반응과 장기적 영향

시장 반응은 스페이스X IPO에 대한 기대와 불확실성이 혼재되어 있음을 보여줍니다. 단기적으로는 변동성이 지속될 전망이며, 장기적으로는 기술 산업의 성장 가능성과 과도한 평가의 균형이 중요해질 것입니다. 이는 투자자들에게 신중한 포트폴리오 구성과 리스크 관리 전략이 필요함을 시사합니다. 특히, AI와 우주 산업에 대한 과도한 투기는 시장 전체의 안정성에 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 고려해야 합니다.

결론

이 기사는 스페이스X IPO가 테슬라 주가와 시장 전체에 미칠 잠재적 영향을 분석한 것입니다. 특히, 전 레만 브라더스 트레이더의 경고는 과도한 기대와 현실적인 성장 가능성 사이의 간극을 인식할 필요가 있음을 강조합니다. 향후 스페이스X IPO의 진행과 테슬라 주가의 변동성을 주의 깊게 관찰할 필요가 있습니다.

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원문 링크: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/tsla-stock-spacex-ipo-dotcom-bubble-warning/cZ0g1ZMReuA?.tsrc=rss

TSLA Stock Slips Overnight: SpaceX IPO Hype Is Starting To Look Like Amazon's Dot-Com Bubble Peak In 2000, Warns Ex-Lehman Trader

The trader warned that the market is becoming overly dependent on the AI narrative, calling the IPO wave involving SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic "the coup of the century."McDonald said passive investors could face greater risk, warning that rapid index inclusion could force retirement funds to buy large amounts of SpaceX stock regardless of valuation.SpaceX is expected to begin its IPO roadshow within a few days.Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) slipped 1% in overnight trading heading into Monday as speculation around a SpaceX merger builds, while a former Lehman Brothers trader warned that investors chasing SpaceX's blockbuster IPO could be repeating the same mistake many made with Amazon before its 90% collapse during the dot-com crash.While the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares ETF (TSLL), which delivers twice Tesla's daily performance, dropped 2%, the GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD), which profits when Tesla falls, gained about 2%. Meanwhile, TSLA recorded its best month since September. McDonald Sounds The Alarm On SpaceX ValuationLarry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and a former Lehman Brothers trader, believes investors may be getting carried away by SpaceX's valuation: "From my perspective, investing in SpaceX right now is akin to buying Amazon in the spring of 2000 at the peak of the dot-com bubble: back then, investors prematurely priced in enormous future earnings potential. Amazon ultimately did turn out to be a phenomenal success story, but its stock initially lost more than 90% during the dot-com crash," McDonald said. In a post on X, McDonald said that a $2 trillion SpaceX valuation would require the company to eventually hit $1,500 trillion to $1,900 trillion for investors to achieve Tesla-like gains, which he called "astronomically unrealistic — far beyond global economic scale - even for the big tech GOAT @elonmusk ! McDonald’s views come as SpaceX prepares potentially the largest IPO in Wall Street history. The company is reportedly seeking a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion and aims to raise as much as $75 billion. Last week, Musk pushed back against reports that the valuation target had been reduced from more than $2 trillion, calling them "false."SpaceX's IPO filing showed that the company generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and $4.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The company also laid out ambitions spanning reusable rockets, Starlink broadband, direct-to-device communications, AI infrastructure, orbital data centers and Mars colonization.Trader Says 'The Stock Market Is Drunk On A Narrative'McDonald said that SpaceX's IPO is arriving at a time when investors have become increasingly captivated by AI: "The stock market is drunk on a narrative," he said. "Artificial intelligence is the new everything." He warned that investors are pricing in future earnings years in advance, while paying too little attention to competition, delays and execution risks.According to McDonald, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could become the defining deals of the current AI-driven market cycle. "I fear there's a good chance the market gets overwhelmed," he said. "Every cycle features a marquee deal or IPO that defines its peak."He pointed to previous market milestones, including the AOL-Time Warner merger during the dot-com era and major deals that preceded earlier downturns, arguing that today's AI IPO boom could serve a similar role.McDonald called the IPO wave as "the coup of the century," noting that the combined valuation of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic has surged from about $760 billion a year ago to $3.5 trillion today. "Basically, they tripled in a year, which is pure madness," he said. He also warned that adding another group of AI giants to major stock indexes could leave retirement savers even more exposed to a sector that already dominates market benchmarks. "If these new heavyweights are added, everyone's 401(k) is almost certain to face a deathly overdose," he said. Why McDonald Thinks Passive Investors Are At RiskMcDonald's biggest concern is about passive investing and retirement accounts. He said that accelerated inclusion into benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 could force index funds to buy billions of dollars worth of SpaceX shares regardless of valuation. McDonald called this "the dark side of passive investing" and warned that passive investment strategies have become so large that markets can be distorted when giant companies enter major indexes.Based on his estimates, SpaceX could debut as one of the largest companies in the S&P 500, with passive investors eventually holding nearly half of its publicly traded shares: "With accelerated index inclusion, the retirement savings of broad swaths of the population are effectively being hijacked," McDonald said.He noted that AI tech companies already account for nearly half of the S&P 500's market value. "If these new heavyweights are added, everyone's 401(k) is almost certain to face a deathly overdose," McDonald said.In a separate post on X, McDonald made a direct appeal to investors: "This is the moment. As a former Lehman trader I feel it's the time to speak up. We must STOP this. Your 401k is on the line."Recently, Nasdaq and FTSE Russell changed rules to allow faster inclusion of mega-cap IPOs into key indexes, while S&P Dow Jones Indices is considering similar changes. Bloomberg estimates that passive funds could be forced to absorb nearly $20 billion of SpaceX stock if the S&P adopts a comparable fast-track approach.Tesla, SpaceX And xAIThe debate comes as Musk continues to fuel speculation about deeper ties between Tesla, SpaceX and xAI. During a recent Forbes interview, Musk was asked whether he could eventually see Tesla and SpaceX operating under one company. He responded cautiously, noting that some of his businesses are publicly traded while others are moving in that direction.The comments followed SpaceX's acquisition of xAI earlier this year in an all-stock transaction valued at $1.25 trillion. Tesla has also received approval to convert its previous $2 billion xAI investment into a stake in SpaceX, further tightening links across Musk's businesses. SpaceX is expected to begin its IPO roadshow in a few days.How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SpaceX?On Stocktwits, Tesla sentiment was 'bearish' with ‘normal’ message volume, while SpaceX sentiment was 'bullish' amid ‘extremely high’ chatter levels. One user said, “The merger will drop this price to single digits. Get your short positions loaded.” https://stocktwits.com/Bulltrap4life/message/654926710Another user questioned, “Is Elon teasing the Tesla/Space X merger thing just so people don’t mass exit Tesla shares”https://stocktwits.com/Boardroommaster/message/654932597So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s third-worst performer, with a 3% decline. For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.Read Next: Why Is SMMT Stock Surging Over 10% In Overnight Trading?

Source: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/tsla-stock-spacex-ipo-dotcom-bubble-warning/cZ0g1ZMReuA?.tsrc=rss