Oklo, 높은 기대감에도 수익 미발생으로 투자 위험 증가
Oklo Is Down Over 75% From Its High. It's Still Not the Best Nuclear Stock to Buy.
주가 급락은 회사의 수익 발생 여부와 긴 개발 기간에 대한 시장의 회의론을 반영하고 있습니다.
핵심 요약
Oklo는 대규모 계약에도 불구하고 아직 수익이 발생하지 않아 투자 위험이 높습니다.
- 데이터 해석 (Data Interpretation): Oklo는 최고점 대비 75% 이상 주가가 하락했으며, 이는 회사가 잠재력에 비해 현재 현금 흐름이 매우 부족함을 시장이 반영하고 있음을 의미합니다. 회사는 Switch와 Meta Platforms 등과 총 13.2 GW의 대규모 계약을 체결했으나, Aurora 발전소의 첫 단계 가동은 2030년경부터 시작되어 2034년까지 소요될 것으로 예상됩니다. 이는 현재의 투자 가치가 미래의 현금 흐름에 의해 지배되고 있음을 보여줍니다.
- 현실 인식 (Reality Check): Oklo의 사업은 현재 수익을 창출하지 못하고 자본 지출(CAPEX)을 통해 건설 단계에 집중되어 있습니다. 이는 투자자들에게 단기적인 수익보다는 장기적인 프로젝트 관리 능력과 자금 조달의 안정성을 평가해야 함을 요구합니다. 건설 기간 동안 발생하는 비용과 지연 리스크는 투자 수익률에 직접적인 영향을 미치므로, 이 위험 요소를 면밀히 검토해야 합니다.
- 전략적 시사점 (Strategic Implication): 투자자들은 Oklo가 기술 개발과 대규모 프로젝트 실행이라는 두 가지 과제를 동시에 성공적으로 수행할 수 있는지에 초점을 맞춰야 합니다. 특히, 원자력 SMR 기술의 상업화 속도와 규제 환경의 변화를 지속적으로 관찰해야 합니다. Oklo의 성공은 단순히 계약 체결을 넘어, 이 거대한 프로젝트를 성공적으로 상업화하여 수익을 실현하는 능력에 달려 있다고 판단됩니다.
- 경쟁 비교 (Competitive Context): NextEra Energy(NEE)와 같은 이미 운영 단계에 있는 경쟁사들은 Oklo와는 다른 궤도에 있으며, 이는 Oklo가 추구하는 장기적인 목표와 현재의 시장 위치를 비교하는 데 중요한 기준이 됩니다. Oklo의 잠재력은 인정되나, 현재의 위험 프리미엄을 고려할 때 매우 신중한 접근이 필요합니다.
Original Article
Oklo Is Down Over 75% From Its High. It's Still Not the Best Nuclear Stock to Buy.
Oklo ( OKLO -4.37% ) got off to a fast start. The small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) developer began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in May 2024 at around $10 per share and rocketed to nearly $175 per share by October 2025. Unfortunately, it has been all downhill from there. Shares currently sit more than 75% below their peak.
While I like a good bargain, I'm still not buying this nuclear energy stock . Here's why and the one I'm buying instead.
Lots of promise, but it hasn't delivered yet
Oklo is developing fast fission power plants that could eventually produce clean, reliable, and affordable energy at scale. It has secured a couple of major customers. In 2024, it formed a landmark strategic relationship with the privately held data center operator Switch to deploy 12 gigawatts (GW) of advanced nuclear power, in one of the largest corporate clean power agreements ever signed. Oklo also signed an agreement with Meta Platforms earlier this year to support 1.2 GW of nuclear energy developments in Ohio. These deals will help the tech companies secure the power they need in the AI age.
However, my issue with Oklo is that it currently isn't producing any power. Oklo is building its first Aurora powerhouse at the Idaho National Laboratory, which won't be operational until late 2027 to early 2028. Meanwhile, it expects to start construction on the first phase of its much larger-scale Aurora powerhouse in Ohio later this year, putting it on track to bring that phase online as early as 2030, with full completion targeted by 2034.
As a result, Oklo isn't generating any revenue yet. Meanwhile, its spending will grow as it advances construction on its Ohio project. That means it's a long way from making money, making it a very risky stock.
A much lower-risk way to cash in on the nuclear resurgence
While Oklo has a lot of promise, it's a long way from delivering results. On the other hand, NextEra Energy ( NEE -0.47% ) is already ahead of it in capitalizing on the surge in nuclear energy demand. The utility is a leader in clean power, including nuclear. It currently operates seven units across four locations that generate more than 6 GW of reliable, emissions-free power.
Last October, NextEra signed a deal with Alphabet 's ( GOOGL +1.14% ) ( GOOG +1.10% ) Google to accelerate nuclear energy deployment in the U.S. As part of that collaboration, NextEra will restart the dormant Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa. Google signed a 25-year deal to buy most of the power from that 615-megawatt facility when it resumes operations in the first quarter of 2029. NextEra expects the facility to contribute up to $0.16 per share in annual earnings over its first decade, a meaningful boost for a company that expects to generate $3.63 to $4.00 per share in earnings this year. The companies also expect to explore the development of new nuclear generation in the country.
Already profitable with nuclear-powered growth
Oklo is years away from turning a profit, assuming everything goes according to plan. Contrast that with NextEra Energy, which is already making money. It has visible nuclear-powered growth from Duane Arnold and its pending merger with Dominion , which will make it the country's second-largest producer. That lower risk upside exposure makes it the best nuclear stock to buy.