트럼프 지지율 하락, 이란 분쟁 및 경제 정책에 대한 불만 심화
Trump Approval Rating 8 Points Below Where It Was During First Term—And 3 Points Behind Biden - forbes.com
정치적 불확실성은 광범위한 주식 시장에 즉각적인 방향 신호를 제공하지 않습니다.
핵심 요약
트럼프 대통령의 지지율이 33%로 하락했으며, 이는 외교 및 경제 정책에 대한 전반적인 불만 반영입니다.
핵심요약
- 트럼프의 지지율은 37%에서 33%로 하락했습니다.
- 이란 분쟁 처리에 대한 공화당 지지율은 71%에서 61%로 10%p 하락했습니다.
- 29일 퀸니피악 여론조사에서 응답자의 60%가 이란 전쟁을 반대했습니다.
- CNN 조사에서 응답자의 65%가 트럼프의 정책이 경제에 해를 끼쳤다고 응답했습니다.
- 외교, 경제, 무역, 이민 등 주요 이슈에 대해 응답자들은 전반적으로 불만을 표했습니다.
도입
본 기사는 트럼프 행정부의 대외 정책 및 경제 정책에 대한 대중의 인식을 측정하는 여론조사 결과를 제시합니다. 이는 정치적 불확실성이 글로벌 경제 및 특정 자산 시장의 위험 프리미엄에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 중요합니다. 지지율 하락과 특정 분쟁에 대한 불만 증가는 정책 불확실성이 투자 심리에 미치는 영향을 파악하는 데 핵심적인 단서가 됩니다.
본문 1: 지정학적 리스크와 정책 불확실성
최근 여론조사는 트럼프 행정부의 외교 정책, 특히 이란 분쟁 관리에 대한 지지율 하락이 두드러짐을 보여줍니다. 공화당 지지자들 사이에서 이란 전쟁에 대한 지지율은 71%에서 61%로 10%p 감소했으며, 이는 외교적 개입에 대한 내부적 의견 분열이 심화되고 있음을 의미합니다. 또한 29일 퀸니피악 여론조사 결과에서 응답자의 60%가 이란 전쟁을 반대하는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 정책 결정 과정에 대한 대중의 불신이 외교적 상황에 대한 인식으로 이어지고 있음을 시사합니다. 이러한 지정학적 리스크는 국제 유가 변동성, 에너지 시장의 불안정성, 그리고 글로벌 공급망의 잠재적 차질로 이어져 투자 환경에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 경제 정책과 소비자 심리
정치적 지표 외에도, 트럼프 행정부의 경제 정책에 대한 대중의 인식 역시 부정적입니다. CNN 여론조사에 따르면 응답자의 65%가 트럼프의 정책이 경제에 해를 끼쳤다고 보았으며, 이와 유사하게 67%는 이란 전쟁이 미국에 해를 끼친다고 평가했습니다. 이러한 경제적 우려와 지정학적 우려가 결합되어 투자 심리는 위축될 가능성이 높습니다. 특히 무역 및 이민과 같은 다른 주요 이슈에 대한 전반적인 불만(58%와 57%의 불만)은 정책 일관성에 대한 의문을 제기하며, 이는 장기적인 경제 예측의 어려움을 야기합니다. 이러한 불확실성은 기업의 투자 결정에 있어 리스크 프리미엄을 높이는 요인으로 작용할 수 있습니다.
본문 3: 정책의 파급 효과 및 장기 전망
트럼프 행정부의 정책 방향에 대한 대중의 불만은 단기적인 정치적 지표를 넘어 장기적인 거시 경제 환경에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 외교 정책과 무역 정책의 불확실성이 커질수록 국제 무역 관계의 불안정성이 증가하고, 이는 글로벌 공급망의 재편과 관세 정책의 변동성으로 이어질 수 있습니다. 또한 국내 정치적 갈등이 심화될 경우, 정부의 대외 정책 일관성이 훼손되어 국제 사회에서의 신뢰도가 하락할 위험이 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 이러한 정책 불확실성을 반영하여 특정 지역 및 산업에 대한 위험 평가를 더욱 신중하게 해야 할 필요가 있습니다.
결론
이번 여론조사 결과는 트럼프 행정부의 정책에 대한 대중의 전반적인 불만과 지정학적 리스크가 결합되어 투자 심리에 부정적인 영향을 미치고 있음을 보여줍니다. 향후 시장은 외교 정책의 변동성과 경제 정책의 일관성이라는 두 가지 축을 중심으로 움직일 것으로 전망됩니다. 투자자들은 이러한 정책 불확실성을 관리하고, 지정학적 리스크가 자산 가격에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 관찰해야 할 것입니다. 특히 국제 분쟁과 무역 마찰의 해결 여부가 향후 시장의 변동성을 결정하는 핵심 요소가 될 것입니다.
Original Article
Trump Approval Rating 8 Points Below Where It Was During First Term—And 3 Points Behind Biden - forbes.com
President Donald Trump’s approval rating declined slightly from last month, from 37% to 33%, in the latest AP-NORC poll as approval of his handling of the Iran conflict has dipped across the political spectrum, with the sharpest decline—10 points—among Republicans.
July 30 Trump’s approval rating is eight points below where it was in July of his first term and is three points below Biden’s 36% approval rating in July 2022 (the AP-NORC poll of 1,165 U.S. adults was conducted July 23-27 and has a margin of error of 3.7).
Approval of his handling of the Iran war has declined six points since June, including from 71% to 61% among Republicans.
Less than half of Republicans, 48%, say the U.S. should continue military action in Iran, and only 23% of U.S. adults say it should continue.
July 29 Voters mostly disapproved of Trump’s handling of key issues, according to the Quinnipiac poll , including his handling of the ongoing conflict with Iran (66% disapproval), foreign policy (62%), the economy (62%), trade (58%), and immigration (57%).
Respondents to the Quinnipiac poll broadly disapproved of the ongoing war in Iran—60% of respondents disapproved and only 34% approved of the conflict, the lowest since the pollster began asking that question in March.
However, Republicans still approve of Trump’s job as president, according to the poll, with 76% approving his job performance, down slightly from 85% recorded by the pollster in June.
July 29 A majority of respondents (65%) in a CNN poll said Trump’s policies hurt the economy, and another 67% said the Iran war was hurting the United States.
Trump’s renovations to Washington, D.C., including the planned White House ballroom and the Reflecting Pool upgrades, also received mixed results—88% of Democrats and 62% said they disapproved of the renovations, compared to 22% of Republicans—who primarily said they approved (44%) or did not mind (35%) the changes.
The poll also showed broad disapproval of Trump’s financial windfall while in office, after disclosures showed he made over $2 billion in 2025—most Democrats (85%) and independents (62%) disapproved, while Republicans were more split (20% disapproved, 15% approved, and 65% said it did not matter).
July 26 Trump had a 39% approval rating and 61% disapproval rating in a CBS News/YouGov poll of 2,193 U.S. adults taken July 21-24 (margin of error 2.7), as approval of the U.S. taking military action against Iran has declined from 44% in March to 39%.
A plurality, 37%, believe the Iran conflict will continue for months, 21% believe it will last years, 9% said days or weeks, and 33% said they’re not sure.
Trump had a 40% approval rating the week of July 23-28, 2018, according to Gallup.
July 23 Trump’s 34% approval rating is unchanged from April, with 64% saying they disapprove of his job performance, according to a Pew Research Center survey of 3,554 U.S. adults conducted July 6-12 (margin of error 1.9).
The survey found Democrats have a six-point edge on the congressional midterm ballot, with 20% undecided.
The majority of voters say Trump is a factor in their midterm votes for Congress, with 42% saying they will be votes against Trump and 22% saying they will be votes for him.
July 23 Trump logged a 39% approval rating and 57% disapproval rating in an Emerson College poll of 1,100 likely U.S. voters taken July 19-20 (margin of error 2.9—Trump’s disapproval rating increased one point and his approval rating is unchanged over the past two months).
The poll also shows Democrats with an 11 percentage point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
July 17 Trump had a 40% approval rating and 59% disapproval rating, a one-point decline in his net approval rating from April, and a 38%/60% approval/disapproval rating on the economy, for a net approval rating of -22, his worst marks on the economy of his political career in CNBC polling (the latest survey of 1,000 voters was conducted July 8-12 and has a margin of error of 3.1).
The survey found 61% said they are pessimistic about the state of the economy and outlook for the future, the highest percentage since December 2023.
July 16 Trump’s 37% approval rating and 61% disapproval rating is the same as it was in April, according to a Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Thursday, with approval ratings on the economy, immigration and the war with Iran all below 40% (the survey of 2,648 U.S. adults was taken July 8-13 and has a margin of error of 1.9).
Less than half, 48%, of Americans say the economy will improve in the next year, and 43% said they are worse off financially than they were when former President Joe Biden was in office.
June 19 The latest Associated Press-NORC poll found Trump had a 37% approval rating, consistent with May, while his 34% approval rating of his handling of the Iran war was also unchanged from last month (the latest poll of 3,040 U.S. adults was conducted June 11-17 and has a margin of error of 2.8).
More than half, 53%, of respondents said U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far, a six-point decrease from March, shortly after the U.S. launched attacks against Iran on Feb. 28.
The survey was taken as Iran and the U.S. reached a tentative agreement to end the war, which has brought some immediate economic relief, including a drop in gas prices, though questions remain about whether Trump will ultimately achieve any of his stated objectives for attacking Iran in the first place—namely curbing its nuclear program.
June 15 Trump’s approval rating ticked up one point, to 36%, in a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken June 12-15 compared to the groups’ previous poll taken June 3-8, as his approval was boosted on his handling of cost of living from 20% in the poll released May 18, to 24% in the latest survey (the poll of 1,537 U.S. adults has a margin of error of 3).
Trump had a 40% approval rating at the end of February, before the U.S. launched strikes against Iran.
June 8 Trump logged a 35% approval rating and 63% disapproval rating in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,531 U.S. adults taken June 3-8 (margin of error 2).
The latest results are unchanged from Trump’s approval/disapproval rating in the groups’ mid-May poll and one point above his record-low approval rating of 34% for his second term, in April.
The poll found 59% of respondents expect gas prices—which have worsened amid the Iran war—to rise more over the next year because of the conflict.