클라리티법, 뉴욕 청문회서 60표 확보 가능성 60%…비트코인·이더리움·XRP에 미치는 영향은?
Congress Is Taking the CLARITY Act to New York: What It Changes for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP
클라리티법 청문회가 예정되어 있지만, 상원 통과 여부가 불확실하여 60%의 가능성만 있습니다.
핵심 요약
클라리티법은 상원 60표 확보가 관건으로, 현재 민주당 2명만 지원해 5표 부족하며, 2026년 통과 가능성은 60%입니다.
핵심요약
- 2025년 7월 하원 294대134 표로 클라리티법 통과
- 상원 은행위원회 15대9 표 통과 후 2026년 6월 1일 상원 일정으로 이월
- 현재 민주당 2명만 지원해 60표 확보에 5표 부족
- 예측 시장, 2026년 통과 가능성 60%로 평가
도입
클라리티법은 암호화폐 규제 프레임워크를 확립하는 핵심 법안으로, 비트코인, 이더리움, XRP 등 주요 코인에 미치는 영향이 큽니다. 현재 상원 통과 여부가 시장의 주목받고 있으며, 2026년 통과 가능성도 60%로 평가받아 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다.
본문 1: 하원 통과와 상원의 관건
하원은 2025년 7월 294대134 표로 클라리티법을 통과시켰으며, 이는 양원 중 하나에서 중요한 진전을 의미합니다. 그러나 상원에서는 60표가 필요하며, 현재 민주당 2명만 지원해 5표가 부족한 상황입니다. 이는 법안 통과를 위한 정치적 협상이 필요함을 보여주며, 특히 민주당 내부의 의견 통합이 관건입니다.
본문 2: 2026년 통과 가능성과 시장 반응
예측 시장은 클라리티법의 2026년 통과 가능성을 60%로 평가하고 있습니다. 이는 법안의 내용과 정치적 동향을 종합적으로 고려한 결과로, 시장에서는 법안 통과 시 암호화폐 시장의 투명성과 안정성이 향상될 것으로 예상됩니다. 그러나 상원 통과가 지연될 경우, 중기 선거와 겹쳐 법안 처리 시기가 2027년으로 연기될 가능성도 있습니다.
본문 3: 비트코인·이더리움·XRP에 미치는 영향
비트코인, 이더리움, XRP는 이미 디지털 상품으로 분류되었으며, 클라리티법이 통과될 경우 이러한 분류가 법적으로 확정될 전망입니다. 이는 코인별 규제 프레임워크가 명확해져 시장 참여자들의 불확실성을 줄일 수 있으며, 특히 XRP는 현재 법적 분쟁 중인 상황에서도 긍정적인 영향을 받을 수 있습니다.
결론
클라리티법은 암호화폐 시장의 규제 프레임워크를 확립하는 중요한 법안으로, 상원 통과 여부가 향후 전망에 핵심적입니다. 2026년 통과 가능성은 60%로 평가받지만, 정치적 협상의 결과에 따라 시기가 연기될 수 있다는 점이 주목받고 있습니다. 투자자들은 법안의 동향을 지속적으로 모니터링할 필요가 있습니다.
Original Article
Congress Is Taking the CLARITY Act to New York: What It Changes for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP
This July, lawmakers are taking the CLARITY Act to New York for a hearing, and it’s being billed like the day U.S. crypto rules finally arrive. The CLARITY Act is the big market-structure bill, the one meant to settle which regulator is in charge of crypto and whether a token counts as a commodity or a security.
But for three of the biggest names in crypto, that question was settled months ago. Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTC ), Ethereum ( CRYPTO:ETH ), and XRP ( CRYPTO:XRP ) already count as digital commodities, and Congress has even done part of the work. For these three cryptos, the New York hearing isn’t where anything gets decided, but a stop along the way while the bill waits on the Senate.
So, what would the CLARITY Act actually change for the three of them?
The New York hearing on July 17 is the one drawing attention. It’s a field hearing run by the House subcommittee on digital assets, and its title reveals everything: “Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation.” It’s built to argue for the bill and take testimony from the industry, not to vote on anything.
The hearing also won’t change much because the House already passed the CLARITY Act back in July 2025, by a wide 294-134 margin with dozens of Democrats on board. New York is mostly a stage to keep up the pressure, while the decision that counts plays out in the Senate.
In the Senate, the bill cleared the Banking Committee on a 15-9 vote and has been parked on the calendar since June 1, ready for a floor vote that hasn’t been scheduled, and that’s the holdup. To pass, it needs 60 votes. Republicans hold around 53 seats, so even with every Republican on board, the bill is about seven Democratic votes short, and only two have publicly supported it so far.
The timeline that matters is the August recess, and if the bill slips past that, the fight runs into the midterms and could stall into 2027. Prediction markets currently put its chances of passing in 2026 at somewhere around 60% to 70%, so the odds lean toward passage, but they hinge entirely on the Senate finding those last votes in time.
None of that Senate back-and-forth changes what Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP already are. Back on March 17, the SEC and the CFTC put out a joint interpretation that named 16 crypto assets as digital commodities, and all three were on the list. So, they’re now commodities in the government’s eyes, not securities, which puts them in the same legal bucket as gold or oil.
That single decision did a lot of the heavy lifting. It handed day-to-day oversight to the CFTC, lifted the cloud of being treated as an unregistered security, and cleared the way for the spot ETFs that now trade on all three coins.
But that ruling is only an interpretation, not a law. A future SEC and CFTC could read the rules differently and walk it back, which is why the agencies themselves said only Congress can make the framework permanent. The classification holds today, but it’s written in pencil, and a future administration could reach for the eraser.
The CLARITY Act would take the classification and write it into federal law that a future administration can’t undo on its own. Though the value of that permanence looks a little different for each of the three coins.
Bitcoin never had a security problem to begin with. Regulators have treated it as a commodity for years. It’s had CFTC-regulated futures since 2017, and a spot Bitcoin ETF has been trading since early 2024.
So, the CLARITY Act isn’t about settling what Bitcoin is. It adds a permanent rulebook for everything around Bitcoin, including the exchanges, the custody arrangements, and the products built on top, which is the legal certainty big institutions want before they put serious money in. Bitcoin’s identity was never the question, so the bill mostly firms up the market around it.
For years Ethereum lived in a gray zone, and the puzzling question was about staking—the process where holders lock up ETH to help run the network and earn rewards for it. Under the previous SEC, ETF issuers were told to strip staking out of their filings.
However, the March interpretation reversed that and treated staking rewards as non-securities, which opened the door to staking ETFs that pass that yield to investors. BlackRock and Grayscale already run them, and Morgan Stanley has filed for one this June. So, the CLARITY Act would lock that in. For Ethereum, the prize is staking certainty, and the yield those products can pay, currently around 3% a year, which is something a plain Bitcoin fund can’t offer.
The SEC sued Ripple back in December 2020, arguing XRP was an unregistered security. The fight dragged on for nearly five years before it finally wrapped up in 2025. A 2023 court ruling had already found that XRP isn’t a security when it trades on the open market, and the March interpretation backed that up.
The CLARITY Act would close the question for good, since a law can’t be undone by the next SEC chair the way an agency call can. Still, XRP’s demand depends on whether Ripple’s payment business actually uses the token, and that usage moves XRP’s long-term price more than any label does.
For Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP holders, the CLARITY Act changes less in the short term than the New York hearing suggests. The big win is already banked: these coins are treated as commodities, the ETFs are trading, and the security question is gone. The bill mainly adds permanence. It would lock that classification into federal law, where a future SEC can’t simply reverse it. That matters for the long-term health of these assets, even if it isn’t a fresh reason for the price to jump.
So if you’re tracking this, keep your eyes on the Senate rather than the New York hearing. The question that matters is whether senators can schedule a floor vote and find the votes before their summer break, because that’s the step that would make the current setup permanent. If they do, the long-term picture for all three coins gets a lot more solid. If they don’t, not much changes, and Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP stay commodities on paper, still waiting on the law that makes it stick.