핵심요약

• 1926년부터 2019년까지 주주 자본 5259억 달러 창출, 역대 상위 10위 기업
• 2019년 레드햇 인수 이후 주가 78% 상승, 2025년 35% 추가 상승
• 2026년 2월 안트로픽의 COBOL 현대화 기술 발표 이후 주가 13% 급락
• 하이브리드 클라우드와 AI 분야 리더십에도 불구하고 장기 전망에 대한 신중한 태도 유지

도입

IBM의 2026년 투자 전망은 기술 혁신의 속도와 시장 경쟁 구조의 변화라는 두 가지 핵심 요인을 고려해야 합니다. 특히 AI와 클라우드 컴퓨팅 분야에서의 전략적 전환이 주주 가치 창출의 새로운 지평을 열었는지, 또는 새로운 경쟁자가 등장하며 기존 비즈니스 모델에 위협을 가하는지 분석이 필요합니다.

본문 1: 하이브리드 클라우드와 AI 시장에서의 경쟁력

IBM은 2019년 레드햇 인수를 통해 하이브리드 클라우드와 AI 분야에서 강점을 보였습니다. 이 인수는 IBM 주가에 78%의 상승을 가져왔으며, 특히 2025년에는 35%의 추가 상승을 기록했습니다. 이러한 성장 배경에는 IBM의 기술 혁신과 시장 수요의 증가라는 두 가지 요인이 작용했습니다. 그러나 안트로픽의 COBOL 현대화 기술 발표 이후 주가 13% 급락한 것은, IBM의 핵심 비즈니스 모델에 대한 경쟁사의 위협을 시사합니다. 이는 IBM이 하이브리드 클라우드와 AI 시장에서도 지속적인 혁신과 경쟁력을 유지해야 한다는 점을 강조합니다.

본문 2: COBOL 현대화 시장에서의 도전 과제

COBOL 시스템은 ATM 거래부터 사회보장금 지급까지 다양한 분야에서 사용되고 있습니다. IBM은 이 분야에서 핵심적인 역할을 해왔지만, 안트로픽의 Claude LLM 기술 발표로 인해 새로운 경쟁자가 등장할 가능성 있습니다. 이는 IBM의 수익 구조에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 특히 2026년 이후의 장기적인 전망에 대한 불확실성을 높입니다. IBM은 이러한 도전에 대응하기 위해 기술적 혁신과 전략적 인수를 통해 시장 점유율을 유지해야 합니다.

결론

IBM의 2026년 투자 전망은 하이브리드 클라우드와 AI 시장에서의 경쟁력과 COBOL 현대화 시장에서의 도전 과제를 동시에 고려해야 합니다. 안트로픽의 기술 발표 이후 주가 급락은 단기적인 변동성일 수 있지만, 장기적으로는 IBM의 전략적 대응이 주주 가치 창출의 핵심으로 작용할 가능성이 있습니다. 향후 IBM의 기술 혁신과 시장 경쟁 구조의 변화에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/is-ibm-a-good-long-term-investment?.tsrc=rss

Is IBM a good investment in 2026? Its buy-and-hold prospects explained

IBM is among the all-time top-10 firms in terms of shareholder wealth creation; is it a good buy in 2026?

IBM has always been synonymous with technology, from buzzy corporate mainframes to boxy personal computers, rewarding shareholders handsomely over many decades.

Arizona State University finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder crunched the numbers and discovered that IBM created $525.9 billion in shareholder equity between July 1926 and December 2019, which places it among the top 10 firms of all time in terms of shareholder wealth creation (SWC).

According to CNBC , IBM spent the majority of the 1980s as the largest single component of the S&P 500 , and it dominated its industry with a 70% market share .

But times — and trades — change. Due to missteps in the early 2000s, including missed opportunities in internet technology and cloud computing, IBM ceded market share to Apple ( AAPL ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ), and investors shifted focus.

However, over the next decade, under the leadership of Arvind Krishna, who would eventually become CEO, IBM transformed itself into a major player in the hybrid cloud and AI spheres. For example, in 2019, it acquired Red Hat , the world’s largest open-source software company.

Since the July 2019 acquisition, IBM’s shares have risen 78% — gaining 35% in 2025 alone — yet analysts remain cautious about its long-term outlook.

So, why the hesitation? Here’s what you need to know about whether IBM stock should be a long-term component of your buy-and-hold portfolio.

One announcement from Anthropic PBC explains why. On February 23, 2026, the upstart generative AI company reported that its Claude LLM could speed up the process of modernizing legacy COBOL systems .

This system-level engineering work is a core part of IBM’s business, as COBOL code is used in everything from ATM transactions to Social Security payments. IBM shares fell 13% after the announcement, marking its largest single-day decline since 2000.

In addition, between January and March 2026, IBM plummeted 20.6% — not only due to disruptions from its AI competitors, but also from a broader tech-sector correction driven by the Iran War and inflationary concerns.

Despite short-term turbulence, IBM’s 2025 performance shows that its emergence as a leader in hybrid cloud, AI, and quantum computing should continue to accelerate revenue growth — and help it resonate with investors.

On the subject of quantum computing, CEO Krishna, a PhD-holding quantum computing expert, told The Wall Street Journal that IBM is poised to be “a winner” in the quantum computing race, and that the company was recently recognized by Gartner as the “ Company to Beat ” in the sector.

On January 28, 2026, IBM released its Q4 and 2025 earnings , revealing that software growth and continued adoption of its AI platforms were to thank for its strong results.

IBM reported fourth-quarter earnings of $19.69 billion, beating the $19.23 billion consensus . Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 15% to $4.52, which exceeded analyst estimates of $4.32.

By the end of 2025, IBM had booked $12.5 billion worth of AI business, a sharp increase from just $5 billion in early 2025.

For the full year, IBM reported revenue of $67.5 billion, up 8% from 2024. Its free cash flow increased by $2 billion to $14.7 billion, and the company expects this to increase by $1 billion in 2026. This signifies stability as well as the potential for even more future growth.

Despite these strengths, skepticism remains.

You could say that IBM’s fundamentals may have improved, but that doesn’t discount its decades of uneven performance.

Some even refer to the 2000s as IBM’s “lost decade,” when the company was simply left behind by the rise of cloud computing.

According to Kiplinger , over the 20 years from 2005 to 2025, IBM generated an annualized return of about 10.3%, slightly below the S&P 500’s 11.2% annualized return, which suggests its long-term trend doesn’t always beat the market.

And let’s not forget about Anthropic. According to Zacks , the AI company’s Claude is both a disruptor and a “potent threat” that could “redefine the entire competitive landscape” in the tech sector, forcing IBM to “fine-tune its business model” to stay competitive.

All in all, with a company like IBM, the safest bet may be to stay cautious, although its fundamentals do seem to be proving that its pivot is working.

It also has generations of innovation behind it. After all, the company was founded in the 1900s — not the 2000s.

Source: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/is-ibm-a-good-long-term-investment?.tsrc=rss