미국 중동 정책 변화와 이란과의 관계 전망
New cope from Iran hawks: Once the midterms pass, Trump will attack Iran again - Media Matters for America
이란이 호르무즈 해협을 봉쇄하면서 석유 가격이 급등하고 있습니다. 이는 미국이 전략적 위치에서 약화되었음을 보여주며, 투자자들은 지정학적 리스크 프리미엄이 상승할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
핵심 요약
이란이 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄하며 유가가 급등한 상태입니다.
핵심요약
- 이란이 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄해 유가가 급등
- 미국은 전쟁 목표 달성 실패로 전략적 위치 약화
- 전 NATO 대사 커트 볼커는 이란이 호르무즈 해협 통제하며 대담해졌다고 지적
- 매파 진영은 현재 협상을 재앙으로 보고 있음
도입
이란과의 갈등과 협상이 시장 안정성에 미치는 영향은 투자자에게 중요한 고려 사항입니다. 특히 에너지 가격 변동성과 지정학적 리스크가 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 이해하는 것은 투자 전략 수립에 필수적입니다.
본문 1: 에너지 시장 충격과 유가 변동성
이란의 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄는 글로벌 에너지 시장에 큰 충격을 주며, 유가 급등을 이끌었습니다. 이 같은 변동성은 에너지 관련 주식과 원유 선물 가격에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다. 특히 중동 지역에서의 긴장 고조는 장기적인 에너지 공급 안정성에 대한 우려를 높이고 있습니다. 투자자들은 에너지 부문의 변동성 관리 전략을 강화해야 할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 2: 미국과의 관계 전망
미국은 이란과의 전쟁 목표를 달성하지 못하며 전략적 위치를 약화시켰습니다. 이는 향후 중동 지역의 지정학적 균형에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히 이란의 핵 프로그램과 탄도 미사일 보유량에 대한 통제력이 약화되면서, 지역 안정성이 위협받을 가능성도 있습니다. 미국 정부의 정책 변화에 따른 리스크를 고려한 포트폴리오 조정이 필요합니다.
본문 3: 글로벌 경제 영향
호르무즈 해협의 폐쇄와 유가 급등은 글로벌 경제에 광범위한 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히 에너지 의존도가 높은 국가들은 경제 성장에 부정적인 영향을 받을 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 에너지 가격 변동성에 따른 경제 성장률 전망을 재검토해야 합니다. 또한, 글로벌 공급망에 미치는 영향을 고려한 리스크 관리 전략이 필요합니다.
결론
이란과의 갈등과 협상은 에너지 시장과 글로벌 경제에 지속적인 영향을 미칠 전망입니다. 투자자들은 지정학적 리스크와 에너지 가격 변동성을 고려한 포트폴리오 전략을 수립해야 합니다. 향후 미국 정부의 정책 변화와 이란의 대응에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요합니다.
Original Article
New cope from Iran hawks: Once the midterms pass, Trump will attack Iran again - Media Matters for America
The right-wing hawks who applauded Donald Trump for launching the war with Iran earlier this year are adopting a new argument to avoid criticizing the president as he fumbles toward enacting a weaker, piecemeal version of the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal he once decried . According to their theory, the current negotiations are a sham: Trump is merely laying off the Iranian regime temporarily to forestall Republican defeat in the midterms and will resume hostilities after the November elections.
Iran’s obvious and expected counterstroke of closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli military strikes succeeded in hamstringing the global energy and fertilizer trade, sending prices soaring. Now Iran’s regime is intact and in control of its nuclear materials and ballistic missile stockpile, and the U.S., having failed to achieve the administration’s stated war goals, is negotiating surrender terms that will leave it in a weaker geostrategic position than before the war began.
“You go back to January, shipping was moving, Iran's nuclear program had been bombed six months before and was largely destroyed,” former NATO Ambassador Kurt Volker said on Fox News last week. “We launched this war, the global economy took a big hit. Oil prices skyrocketed. Now we're winding this down but we have Iran now emboldened to exercise some kind of control over the Strait of Hormuz.”
While MAGA’s hacks are eager to praise any deal as an historic victory for Trump and downplay the implications of the memorandum of understanding he signed with Iran, the movement’s hawks recognize that these negotiations are, as The Daily Wire’s Ben Shapiro put it , “a disaster.”
Over the last week, the hawk faction has scrambled for a response that doesn’t risk their own MAGA audiences by directly attacking Trump. Many have turned their vitriol on Vice President JD Vance for his role in the negotiations, absolving the president of responsibility for the document that he signed and publicly describes as “a very strong deal.”
But another argument recently adopted by right-wing hawks posits that the MOU is effectively meaningless because Trump is negotiating in bad faith. In this telling, the president only agreed to the MOU in order to bring down the cost of gas and thus boost the GOP’s standing in the midterm elections — and after they pass, he will order the U.S. military to resume its attack on Iran.
This argument has some benefits for the hawks:
Fox host Mark Levin, the shrill-voiced megahawk , and network contributor Hugh Hewitt, a higher-brow Sean Hannity , got this argument going on Thursday, as The Bulwark’s Jonathan V. Last noted .
“Time for a change in strategy,” Levin, who previously described himself as “very skeptical about any deal,” posted on social media. “We should consider slow walking the enemy, building up our munitions, our oil reserves, get the price of gasoline down, get through the midterms, then knock them out. Instead of rushing to a deal, building up their oil industry, transferring billions to them, etc.”
Hewitt responded affirmatively to Levin’s post and added that he believed this was actually the president’s strategy.
“Assume that many inside the Administration, including President Trump, settled on this course weeks ago,” he wrote. “Keeping the Senate and (against all odds) the House in GOP hands isn’t just a political goal for Republicans, it’s critical to the national security,” he continued, adding, “President Trump factoring in the realities of domestic politics and their consequences is a right and proper calculation.”
Hewitt’s theory contradicts Trump’s own prior statements — for which the pundit had praised the president — insisting that he would not take domestic politics into account in negotiating with the Iranians.
“They thought they were gonna outwait me. You know, ‘We'll outwait him. He's got the midterms,’” Trump said during a May 27 Cabinet meeting . “I don't care about the midterms.”
Responding to those remarks on Fox later that day, Hewitt said : “What I appreciate is the president said he's not caring about the midterms. What that means, and I think everyone understands, is he's putting the national security ahead of gas prices.”
Hewitt brought his revised views on Trump factoring domestic politics into Iran negotiations to Fox during last Friday’s edition of Special Report .
From the June 19, 2026, edition of Fox News' Special Report
Hewitt described the MOU as “halftime, probably the longest halftime in the history of modern war since the phony war after Germany overran Poland in the fall of 1939. There was seven months when there was no war, and then Germany invaded France.”
(Note that in Hewitt’s historical analogy, Trump is Adolf Hitler.)
“We're going to go back on the battle damage assessment and figure out how to finish the job, unless Iran actually capitulates,” he predicted. “The MOU's language is bad. I think everyone is reading into it what they want but the reality is talk to me in five months, after the election, and I think we'll be back in the battle with Iran.”
Fox & Friends co-host Brian Kilmeade, who has described the deal as “not acceptable” and repeatedly blamed it on Vance , added his voice on Tuesday morning.
“The closer it gets to the midterms, I think the less likely the president [is] to act,” he explained. “But after the midterms, the gloves come off.”
From the June 23, 2026 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends
The upshot, however, is that the hawks’ escalation plans are unlikely to succeed and have huge potential downsides — while Iranian officials now know they can easily close the Strait of Hormuz, shut down a huge chunk of the global energy trade, and punish American consumers.
Their idea to attack Iran was foolhardy, the president’s belief he could pull off a strategic victory was ill-conceived, and now we are all dealing with the consequences.