트럼프, 이란 협상이 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향 분석
Trump hails Iran deal but conflict continues to cast long shadow over global economy - The Guardian
이란과의 합의로 석유 가격이 하락했지만, 지opolitical한 리스크가 지속되는 mixed signal입니다.
핵심 요약
원유 가격은 80달러 선을 하회했으며, 중동 국가들의 GDP는 올해 2.6% 감소할 전망입니다.
핵심요약
- 원유 가격은 합의 발표 후 80달러 선을 하회했습니다
- 중동 국가들의 GDP는 올해 2.6% 감소할 전망입니다
- 미국은 AI 투자 열풍으로 경제 성장이 지속되고 있습니다
- 미국 운전자들은 1년 전보다 갤런당 1달러 더 많은 주유 비용을 지출하고 있습니다
도입
이 기사는 중동 갈등이 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 분석한 것으로, 투자자에게 중요한 지표입니다. 특히 원유 가격의 변동성과 지역별 경제 영향이 핵심 주제입니다.
본문 1: 원유 가격 변동성의 시장 영향
원유 가격이 80달러 선을 하회한 것은 중동 갈등의 긴장 완화에 따른 시장 반응으로 해석됩니다. 이 가격 하락은 소비자 물가 상승 압력을 완화할 가능성이 있으며, 특히 에너지 의존도가 높은 국가들에게 긍정적인 신호입니다. 그러나 가격 변동성이 지속될 경우, 에너지 기업들의 수익성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 원유 가격의 안정화를 주시해야 합니다.
본문 2: 중동 국가들의 경제 전망
옥스퍼드 경제학연구소가 중동 국가들의 GDP가 2.6% 감소할 것으로 전망한 것은, 갈등이 지역 경제에 미치는 직접적인 영향을 보여줍니다. 이 지역은 원유 수출에 크게 의존하고 있어, 수출 감소는 경제 침체로 이어질 수 있습니다. 그러나 갈등이 완화된다면, 경제 회복 속도가 빨라질 가능성도 있습니다. 투자자들은 중동 국가들의 경제 지표를 지속적으로 모니터링해야 합니다.
본문 3: 미국 경제의 강점과 약점
미국은 AI 투자 열풍으로 경제 성장이 지속되고 있지만, 에너지 수출국으로서 원유 가격 변동성에 노출되어 있습니다. 특히 미국 운전자들이 갤런당 1달러 더 많은 주유 비용을 지출하고 있는 것은 소비자 지출에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 그러나 AI 분야의 성장 가능성이 높아, 장기적으로는 긍정적인 전망을 유지할 수 있습니다.
결론
이 기사는 중동 갈등이 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 종합적으로 분석한 것으로, 투자자에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 원유 가격의 안정화와 중동 국가들의 경제 회복 속도가 향후 주목할 점입니다. AI 투자 열풍이 미국 경제에 미치는 영향도 지속적으로 주시해야 합니다.
Original Article
Trump hails Iran deal but conflict continues to cast long shadow over global economy - The Guardian
As the price of crude oil falls governments are counting the costs of the war in the Middle East
Hailing his Iran deal this week amid the excess of Versailles, Donald Trump urged sceptics to take Wall Street’s word for its success. “There is nothing as smart as the market – and the market loves it,” he said, claiming credit for ending the economic chaos that had kicked off when he started bombing Iran in late February. Without the agreement, he said, “the alternative would be a worldwide depression”.
By the weekend, the outlook was less optimistic after planned US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland were abruptly called off , then reinstated, and Iran said Israeli bombing in Jordan meant it was justified in closing the strait of Hormuz again. Still, hopes persist that the sea passage carrying about 20% of the world’s oil supplies will reopen fully in the coming days and weeks.
If the oil does start to flow more freely again, it should forestall the shortages of key products, such as jet fuel, that some analysts had predicted would occur if the war persisted.
Energy markets are already anticipating the hoped-for resurgence in supply: the cost of a barrel of crude oil dropped below $80 a barrel after the agreement was announced, for the first time since the early days of the war.
Yet governments are still counting the economic costs of a war they did not want any part of.
The severity of the impact varies by region. Gulf economies, which have seen exports of their main revenue-raiser choked off and found themselves the target of Iranian bombs, are expected to plunge into recession. Analysts at Oxford Economics are expecting GDP in the region to decline by 2.6% this year.
Economic growth in the US, now a net energy exporter, has remained strong, with stock markets bolstered by the AI investment boom, and SpaceX just the first of a series of mega market launches expected this year.
But American drivers are paying $1 a gallon more for petrol than a year ago, and economy-wide inflation in the US has surged to 4.2% , its highest rate in three years – news that Trump greeted by claiming: “I love the inflation.”
Trump’s newly appointed pick as Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, was chosen in the hope he would deliver a string of interest rate cuts.
In fact, Warsh is likely to face pressure to raise borrowing costs in the coming months. Dario Perkins, the head of global research at the consultancy TS Lombard, said that of the leading central banks, “as the economy has remained strong and inflation has increased, the Fed is probably going to increase rates the most, maybe as much as four times (to a range of 4.5% to 5%) by the end of next year”.
He said the US economy had remained strong thanks to consumers running down their savings to continue spending, while shoppers in the UK and continental Europe had been more circumspect. “The euro consumer, while they have savings, are more worried about the war and its outcome,” he said.
In the EU, which is heavily reliant on gas imports, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, in the hope of choking off surging inflation.
The impact on prices in the UK has been somewhat more muted, with inflation hitting 2.8% in April and interest rates on hold for the moment – but confidence has been hit hard and the jobs market remains weak.
Sanjay Raja, the chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said inflation would rise further – perhaps by up to another percentage point – in the coming months. “All of the data suggests that there’s something coming – we are going to see some pressure.” However, he expects the downward effect on growth to be relatively modest – knocking up to a quarter of a percentage point off GDP growth.
Many developing countries have been forced to ration fuel in the face of rocketing prices and are braced for the impact of surging fertiliser costs over the coming months.
This “demand destruction” – cutting back on usage when prices become unaffordable – may be part of the reason why oil prices have not surged even higher since February.
Raja argues it is also because countries including China have been able to rely on strategic oil supplies, some of which may not have been known about by analysts.
Despite Trump’s bullishness, his tentative agreement with Iran leaves many questions unanswered and will not immediately draw a line under the economic damage caused by the war.
Ryan Sweet, the chief global economist at the consultancy Oxford Economics, said: “The difficulty of quantifying the economic cost is that the economic timeline doesn’t equal the military timeline, so we’re still going to be feeling the economic impact of this through the rest of this year and potentially early next.”
He pointed out that while Trump had stressed that the strait of Hormuz would reopen, the details remained hazy. “There’s still the risk that tolls are imposed on ships, or the number of ships that go through the strait is a lot less than before the conflict – there’s still a lot of uncertainty around that.”
Fears remain that hostilities could yet be reignited – for example, if Trump comes to doubt that Tehran is serious about winding down its nuclear plans.
Trump is also facing some pushback against the deal at home, even from Republicans. Neil Shearing, the chief global economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, said policymakers should view the agreement as fragile.
“It’s a good start. But there are several ways the deal can fall apart. Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon, Iran exploiting its chokehold over the strait of Hormuz, and a dispute over how to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”
He added that the oil markets may be too sanguine about the next few months. “Our modelling of the oil price shows that prices of Brent crude should be about $90 a barrel in the third quarter and $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter. However, the market has raced ahead and is already pricing oil at $80. That’s a Goldilocks outcome to the war when there is plenty more negotiating to be done.”