오만 은행권, 고유가 및 경제 성장으로 탄력성 유지 전망
Oman banks remain resilient as high oil prices support 5 percent loan growth, 3.7 percent GDP expansion - Economy Middle East
높은 유가와 경제 성장이 오만 은행 부문의 회복력을 뒷받침하며 안정적인 기반을 제공합니다.
핵심 요약
오만 은행들은 5%의 대출 성장과 안정적인 수익성 지표를 바탕으로 지역 분쟁에도 불구하고 견고함을 유지할 것으로 예상됩니다.
핵심요약
- 대출 성장률은 5퍼센트
- GDP는 3.7퍼센트 확장
- 2026년 1분기 평균 운영 이익 대비 위험자산 비율은 2퍼센트
- 은행 자본 완충 장치는 운영 환경 악화에 대응할 여력을 제공합니다.
도입
본 기사는 지정학적 불안정성 속에서도 오만 은행 부문이 어떻게 경제 성장과 자본 완충 장치를 통해 안정성을 유지하는지를 분석합니다. 이는 지역 분쟁이 금융 시스템에 미치는 영향을 평가하는 데 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다.
본문 1: 거시 경제 환경과 은행 수익성
오만 은행권의 안정성은 거시 경제 환경에 깊이 뿌리내리고 있습니다. 기사에 따르면, 오만은 5퍼센트의 대출 성장과 3.7퍼센트의 GDP 확장을 기록하며 경제 성장을 경험하고 있습니다. 이러한 긍정적인 경제 지표는 은행 대출 포트폴리오의 안정적인 성장을 뒷받침하는 기반이 됩니다. 또한, 낮은 이자율 환경은 은행의 순이자마진(NIM)에 대한 압력을 완화하여 수익성을 유지하는 데 기여했습니다. 특히, Fitch Ratings는 2026년에도 은행의 수익성이 충분할 것으로 예상하며, 이는 수익성 지표가 2025년과 2024년 수준에서 안정적으로 유지되었음을 반영합니다. 이는 은행들이 금리 환경 변화에 효과적으로 대응하고 있음을 의미합니다.
본문 2: 지정학적 위험으로부터의 완충 효과
오만 은행들의 회복탄력성은 지역 분쟁으로부터의 지리적 이점을 통해 강화됩니다. 오만은 호르무즈 해협 외부에 항구 접근성을 가지며, 지역 분쟁의 직접적인 영향으로부터 상대적으로 격리되어 있습니다. 이러한 지리적 위치는 에너지 수출 경로와 공급망에 대한 중단 위험을 줄여주며, 이는 은행 운영에 필수적인 안정적인 에너지 및 무역 흐름을 보장합니다. 따라서 지역 분쟁이 은행의 수익성이나 대출 부실에 미치는 영향은 통제 가능하며, 이는 Fitch Ratings가 2026년의 손실 발생 가능성을 관리할 수 있다고 평가하는 근거가 됩니다. 즉, 지정학적 위험이 은행의 핵심 운영 조건에 미치는 영향이 제한적이라는 점이 핵심입니다.
본문 3: 자본 건전성과 미래 전망
은행들이 운영 환경의 변화에 대응할 수 있는 능력은 충분한 자본 완충 장치에 의해 보장됩니다. Fitch는 은행들이 2026년에도 적절한 자본을 유지하고 대차대조표 확장을 통해 자본을 보존할 것으로 전망합니다. 현재의 자본 완충 장치는 운영 환경의 완만한 악화에도 은행의 신용 프로필을 크게 약화시키지 않고 충격을 흡수할 수 있는 여지를 제공합니다. 이는 은행들이 향후 불확실한 환경에서도 안정적인 신용 활동을 지속할 수 있는 재정적 기반을 제공함을 의미합니다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 오만 은행들은 안정적인 경제 성장과 견고한 자본 구조를 바탕으로 금융 시스템의 안정성을 유지할 것으로 전망됩니다.
결론
결론적으로, 오만 은행 부문은 고유가와 경제 성장을 기반으로 하는 긍정적인 거시 경제 환경과 지리적 이점을 통해 높은 회복탄력성을 보여줍니다. 은행들은 안정적인 자본 완충 장치를 바탕으로 지정학적 위험을 관리하며 수익성을 유지할 것으로 보입니다. 향후 오만 은행들의 성과는 지역 경제의 안정성과 국제 유가 동향에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 중요할 것으로 전망됩니다.
Original Article
Oman banks remain resilient as high oil prices support 5 percent loan growth, 3.7 percent GDP expansion - Economy Middle East
Published: Thu 23 Jul 2026, 12:44 PM
Oman’s banking sector is expected to remain resilient despite the Iran war, supported by economic growth, relatively high oil prices and the country’s limited direct exposure to the regional conflict, according to Fitch Ratings.
The ratings agency said Omani lenders would continue to benefit from favorable operating conditions, with the conflict likely to have a contained effect on profitability, credit growth and loan impairment charges during 2026.
Oman is the Gulf country most insulated from the conflict, Fitch said. Its geographical position and access to ports outside the Strait of Hormuz reduce its exposure to disruptions affecting regional energy exports, shipping routes and supply chains.
The country’s oil and natural gas infrastructure has also remained largely unaffected, supporting production, exports and government revenue during a period of heightened regional uncertainty.
Fitch expects the profitability of Omani banks to remain adequate in 2026, with any conflict-related increase in loan impairment charges likely to be manageable.
Profitability indicators were broadly stable during the first quarter of 2026 and throughout 2025. The average operating profit-to-risk-weighted-assets ratio among Fitch-rated Omani banks stood at 2 percent during the first three months of 2026, unchanged from both 2024 and 2025.
Lower interest rates limited the pressure on banks’ net interest margins. Although declining rates can reduce the income generated from lending assets, they may also ease financing costs for borrowers and support credit quality.
Fitch expects sound earnings generation and measured balance-sheet expansion to help banks maintain adequate capitalization during 2026. Existing capital buffers should provide lenders with room to absorb a moderate deterioration in operating conditions without substantially weakening their credit profiles.
The assessment follows earlier Fitch analysis indicating that GCC banks entered the regional conflict with strong profitability, ample liquidity and sound capital positions, limiting immediate risks to their credit fundamentals.
Funding and liquidity conditions in Oman are also expected to remain reasonable. Customer deposits account for approximately 91 percent of the banking sector’s non-equity funding, giving lenders a predominantly deposit-funded business model.
Fitch said relatively high oil prices should continue supporting deposit growth by strengthening government finances, economic activity and cash flows across companies linked to the energy sector.
Stable deposits from the Omani government and government-related entities are expected to provide additional liquidity support. These funds represent an important component of the sector’s deposit base and can help banks manage short-term funding pressures during periods of market volatility.
However, the concentration of deposits among a limited number of large government, corporate and institutional customers remains a key structural risk. The withdrawal or movement of substantial deposits could place pressure on individual banks’ liquidity positions, particularly at smaller institutions.
The importance of concentrated public-sector funding means that changes in oil prices, government spending or the financial position of government-related companies can influence banking-sector liquidity more quickly than in markets with more diversified retail deposit bases.
Fitch expects the regional conflict to have only a contained effect on credit expansion. The agency forecasts loan growth of approximately 5 percent in 2026, slightly below its previous projection of between 6 percent and 7 percent.
The revised forecast suggests that lenders will continue expanding their balance sheets, although at a more cautious pace as businesses and households assess the conflict’s potential implications for investment, trade, tourism and consumer demand.
Credit demand is expected to remain supported by government investment, infrastructure development and projects linked to Oman Vision 2040. However, uncertainty surrounding the regional outlook may delay some private-sector borrowing and investment decisions.
The tourism and construction sectors are among the areas most exposed to a prolonged conflict. Disruptions to travel, higher transportation costs and weaker investor sentiment could affect companies operating in these industries and result in more cautious lending decisions.
Oman’s broader economic growth and favorable oil income should nevertheless limit the effect on banks’ loan books. Fitch’s forecast indicates that the sector is expected to continue generating new business rather than entering a period of credit contraction.
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The assessment is consistent with the International Monetary Fund’s June 2026 review , which found that Oman’s economy had remained resilient during the Middle East conflict. The IMF attributed part of that resilience to the location of the country’s principal ports outside the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of prudent economic policies.
Oman’s oil and gas infrastructure remained largely unaffected, enabling the country to raise production and exports during regional supply disruptions. The IMF projected real gross domestic product growth of approximately 3.7 percent in 2026, accelerating from 2.4 percent in 2025.
Non-hydrocarbon growth was forecast to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026 as the conflict affected tourism and construction, before recovering to 3.2 percent in 2027. Inflation, meanwhile, increased to 2.8 percent during the first five months of 2026, driven by higher food and transportation prices.
Higher hydrocarbon revenue and continued fiscal discipline are expected to strengthen Oman’s public finances. The IMF forecast the fiscal surplus at 4.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2026 and 4.2 percent in 2027 after it narrowed to 0.6 percent in 2025. Central government debt declined to 34.7 percent of GDP at the end of last year.