미국-이란, 호르무즈 해협 재개통 합의...이란 핵문제 60일 내 해결 압력
Iran and US reach an initial deal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz but challenges remain - ABC7 New York
호르무즈 해협 개통으로 에너지 위기 완화 가능성 있지만, 이란의 60일 내 핵 프로그램 결정이 걸림돌이 될 수 있습니다.
핵심 요약
미국과 이란은 호르무즈 해협 재개통을 합의했지만, 이란의 핵문제를 60일 내 해결해야 하는 압박을 받았습니다.
핵심요약
- 이란의 고농축 우라늄과 핵 프로그램 문제를 60일 내 해결해야 함
- 호르무즈 해협 재개통이 금요일까지 공식화되지 않을 전망
- 에너지 위기 완화까지 몇 달 소요될 가능성
- 이스라엘의 레바논 공격 지속이 합의 파기 요인
도입
이번 합의는 글로벌 에너지 시장에 큰 영향을 미칠 전망입니다. 호르무즈 해협이 재개통되더라도 몇 달이 지나야 에너지 가격이 안정화될 것으로 보입니다. 또한, 이란의 핵 문제 해결이 60일이라는 제한된 기간 내에 이뤄져야 하는 점에서 추가적인 변동성이 예상됩니다.
본문 1: 에너지 시장 안정화 전망
호르무즈 해협이 재개통되더라도 에너지 시장의 불안정성은 몇 달간 지속될 전망입니다. 이는 글로벌 공급망에 미치는 영향을 고려할 때, 에너지 가격의 변동성이 지속될 수 있다는 의미입니다. 특히, 중동 지역에서의 긴장감은 지속될 가능성이 높으며, 이는 원유 가격에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 것입니다.
본문 2: 이란 핵 문제의 복잡성
이란의 고농축 우라늄과 핵 프로그램 문제를 60일 내 해결해야 한다는 점에서, 이번 합의는 매우 복잡한 과정으로 이어질 전망입니다. 이는 2015년 합의에서 이미 몇 년의 시간이 소요되었음을 고려할 때, 짧은 기간 내에 해결될 가능성은 낮습니다. 또한, 이스라엘의 레바논 공격 지속은 이란의 협상 태도에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
결론
이번 합의는 글로벌 에너지 시장에 긍정적인 신호이지만, 여전히 해결해야 할 문제가 많습니다. 특히, 이란의 핵 문제 해결과 이스라엘의 레바논 공격 지속이 주요 변수로 작용할 전망입니다. 향후 몇 달간 에너지 시장과 중동 지역의 정치 상황을 주목해야 합니다.
Original Article
Iran and US reach an initial deal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz but challenges remain - ABC7 New York
Details of the deal were not immediately released.
The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement Monday that would extend their shaky ceasefire and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz , but significant challenges remain to ending the war, including whether Israel will continue its offensive in Lebanon.
Details of the deal were not immediately released, but it appeared that it would not be implemented until it is signed, which mediator Pakistan said would happen Friday in Geneva. Even if the strait - a crucial waterway for the world's oil and natural gas - fully opens then, it will likely take months for the global energy crisis sparked by its closure to ease.
Israel's defense minister said Monday that the country wouldn't withdraw from land seized in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group . Israel joined the U.S. in launching the war on Feb. 28 , but it is not party to the deal. A spokesman in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel will continue to defend itself against any threat to its security.
That alone could scuttle the deal, since Iran has insisted any agreement to end the war include an end to the fighting in Lebanon.
The agreement also faces other major challenges . It gives just 60 days to decide what to do about Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its nuclear program - which the U.S. and Israel worry could be used to build an atomic weapon, despite Tehran's insistence that it is peaceful. It took years for Iran and world powers to negotiate a 2015 agreement to rein in Tehran's nuclear program.
President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from that accord in his first term, setting the stage for the tensions that culminated in the current war , which has killed thousands across the Middle East, including the top leaders of Iran's theocracy, and raised the prices of fuel, food and other basic goods far beyond the region.
Trump, who faced pressure to end the war ahead of congressional midterm elections in November, hailed the agreement on social media, saying he had authorized the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. He later said the strait wouldn't open until Friday.
The U.S. military said the blockade will remain in place "pending execution" of the deal.
"Do not attempt to cross until explicit direction is given," it said Monday in an advisory to merchant ships.
Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed the agreement on state television but said Iran would not start implementing it until it was signed.
Early in the war, Iranian attacks on ships brought traffic in the crucial waterway - through which a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas passed before the conflict - to a near standstill. Trump implemented a blockade in response.
The closure of the strait, Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the blockade sent fuel prices skyrocketing, and the knock-on effects rippled through the world economy. Energy experts say it will likely take months before energy companies can resume operations to the point of meeting the world's demand.
Iranian and U.S. officials will hold preparatory meetings in Doha, Qatar, this week before the signing, said a diplomat with direct knowledge of the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door meetings.
Vice President JD Vance said an interim deal to end the conflict was electronically signed Sunday ahead of the planned ceremony in Switzerland. The White House hopes to release the memorandum of understanding in the coming days, he said.
"I think when people see this deal ... they're going to realize that this is going to make the whole region safer," Vance said Monday in an appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
The success of the deal rests at least partially on what happens between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel's bombing of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday nearly derailed the negotiations, and a previous attack led Iran to fire on Israel and Israel to fire back.
Defense Minister Israel Katz, meanwhile, said Israel plans to stay "indefinitely" in land it holds in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip. Over the past 2 1/2 years, Israel has taken control of areas in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria amounting to 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of territory.
Katz also threatened that if Iran attacks Israel over its strikes in Lebanon, Israel will strike Iran with "great force."
Asked where Israel stands on the deal, David Mencer, a spokesman in Netanyahu's office, told The Associated Press that Israel and the U.S. remain fully aligned on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. But he added that Israel will not tolerate attacks from Hezbollah on its territory and will continue to act against those who seek to harm its citizens.
Israel and the U.S. began the war apparently in lockstep, but the war has created deep fractures in that close relationship, with Trump eager to end a conflict that is deeply unpopular with the American public and Netanyahu intent on destroying Hezbollah. Trump appears to have grown increasingly frustrated with the Israeli leader, even occasionally publicly insulting him, including telling The New York Times on Sunday that he was a "very difficult guy."
In a sign of the deal's fragility, the Lebanese army called on residents not to rush to return to border villages, saying they should follow military instructions because of the danger of "Israeli violations and aggression."
Many Lebanese who had fled following Israeli evacuation orders and intense fighting were heading south, however, to check on their homes. Celine Fayad, driving south, said she will test how far she could go. Her village, Aitaroun, is along the border with Israel. It was among the first to be occupied and lies in ruins.
"We were expecting to return," she said. "Thanks to Iran."
Ali Haidar was among the first to return to Nabatiyeh, the southern city at the heart of the latest Israeli military operations, where many central buildings have been reduced to dust.