핵심요약

• 호르무즈 해협 통행량 수요일 70건으로 증가, 화요일 대비 2배
• 이란이 북부 통로 통행 허가 요구로 해협 완전 개방 미루어짐
• 목요일에 화물선이 이란 드론에 의해 공격당해 지속적인 긴장 지속
• MOU는 미국과 이란 간의 갈등을 완화하는 데 일시적인 효과를 보임
• 장기적인 평화는 아직 보장되지 않으며, 정치적인 고려 사항이 필요

도입

이번 분석은 미국과 이란 간의 MOU 체결 이후 1주일 간 호르무즈 해협의 통행량 변화와 관련 지정을학적 리스크를 평가하는 데 중점을 둡니다. 투자자들은 에너지 시장의 안정성과 국제 무역의 흐름을 고려할 때, 이러한 변화가 글로벌 공급망에 미칠 영향에 주목해야 합니다. 특히 중동 지역에서의 갈등 완화는 원유 가격 변동성에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있으므로, 에너지 관련 종목의 투자 결정에 중요한 정보를 제공합니다.

본문 1: 호르무즈 해협 통행량 증가의 시장 영향

호르무즈 해협의 통행량 증가는 에너지 시장의 안정성에 긍정적인 신호를 보입니다. 수요일에 70건의 통행이 기록된 것은 화요일 대비 2배의 증가로, 국제 무역의 활성화를 시사합니다. 이 증가는 원유 수출의 증가로 이어질 가능성이 높으며, 이는 원유 가격의 하락 압력을 줄이는 데 기여할 수 있습니다. 그러나 통행량의 증가에도 불구하고, 해협의 완전 개방이 이루어지지 않았음을 고려할 때, 에너지 시장의 변동성은 여전히 존재합니다. 투자자들은 이란의 북부 통로 통행 허가 요구와 중앙의 지뢰 문제로 인한 제한 사항을 고려하여, 에너지 관련 종목의 투자 전략을 수립해야 합니다.

본문 2: 지속적인 긴장의 리스크 평가

목요일에 화물선이 이란 드론에 의해 공격당한 사건은 지속적인 긴장의 가능성을 시사합니다. 이 사건은 MOU가 완전한 평화를 보장하지 못함을 보여주며, 향후 갈등의 재발 가능성을 고려해야 합니다. 이란의 북부 통로 통행 허가 요구와 지뢰 문제로 인한 제한 사항은 국제 무역의 안정성에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 리스크를 고려하여, 중동 지역의 정치적 불안정성에 노출된 종목의 포트폴리오 비중을 조정해야 합니다. 특히 에너지 관련 종목의 변동성이 증가할 수 있으므로, 리스크 관리 전략을 강화하는 것이 중요합니다.

본문 3: 장기적인 전망과 투자 전략

장기적으로 볼 때, 미국과 이란 간의 MOU는 일시적인 효과를 보일 수 있지만, 완전한 평화는 아직 보장되지 않습니다. 정치적인 고려 사항이 필요하며, 양측의 협상 과정에서 추가적인 변동성이 발생할 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 요소를 고려하여, 에너지 시장의 장기적인 전망을 평가해야 합니다. 특히 원유 가격의 변동성과 국제 무역의 흐름을 고려할 때, 에너지 관련 종목의 투자 결정에 신중한 접근이 필요합니다. 또한, 중동 지역의 정치적 불안정성에 노출된 종목의 리스크를 분산시키는 전략을 수립하는 것이 중요합니다.

결론

미국과 이란 간의 MOU 체결 이후 호르무즈 해협의 통행량 증가는 에너지 시장의 안정성에 긍정적인 신호를 보입니다. 그러나 지속적인 긴장의 가능성과 해협의 완전 개방 미루어짐을 고려할 때, 투자자들은 에너지 관련 종목의 변동성과 리스크를 신중하게 평가해야 합니다. 장기적인 전망을 고려할 때, 원유 가격의 변동성과 국제 무역의 흐름을 모니터링하는 것이 중요하며, 정치적 불안정성에 노출된 종목의 포트폴리오 비중을 조정하는 전략이 필요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxPa2l4LXFEWjNTdmp3Z0Y4eU9heEMwVk5tc2taQ2szSENzYVlDRXpmMUdBbGFtRWVIUENZYV85OVRPWm93MVFKeTRCV1ZaZFBacllvS1JFNXZGWlZqQTNMUktkT3FHU0c4eEVMbzVIaGRDblNSeE5uXzZfNng5TFl2M2hKRQ?oc=5

One week in, what exactly are America and Iran getting from their agreement? - CNN

The big news is that the United States and Iran are no longer openly at war. That is, in itself, a win that likely saved lives a week after President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding in France to halt the fighting. That pause was never a given, considering a half-century of hatred between Washington and Tehran and a regional history of eviscerated peace deals. So far, the MOU, a 14-point framework for talks on a permanent peace, has also survived the suspicions of many US lawmakers that it enshrines an American defeat. That’s because the costs of plunging back into the conflict now are prohibitive for both the US and Iran and that comes against the backdrop of some heady domestic political winds ahead of the midterms. Trump revealed last week that he’s not prepared to pay the economic price of more war. And why would Iran break the truce now, since it’s getting an immediate flow of benefits without having to give up much of its core bargaining position? Although the agreement may point to an off-ramp from the war, it’s not a durable peace. It’s a classic Trumpian device to buy time while shelving tough political choices for later. Still, benefits for both sides are rolling out. The Strait of Hormuz is open — mostly Arguably, the United States’ most tangible benefit from the MOU comes from Iran reopening the strait. Vessel traffic through the strait has picked up dramatically in recent days, with 70 crossings on Wednesday, according to Kpler, which tracks activity using transponder and satellite data. That’s more than double Tuesday’s total, although still lower than the 100+ crossings typical before the war started. The strait isn’t fully reopen: Iran continues to require permits to travel along the northern corridor of the around 23-mile-wide channel, and mines in the center restrict traffic to a single shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast. In a sign of persistent tensions, a cargo vessel was struck by an Iranian drone in the strait on Thursday, a US official told CNN. The incident disrupted an operation to evacuate thousands of seafarers from vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf since the war broke out. But the increasing tanker traffic is an encouraging step toward normalization of global oil flows. The strait’s closure created the largest oil shock in history and is expected to cost the world a record 1.6 billion barrels of oil supply, according to JPMorgan. That created a double-barreled effect of high prices and dramatically reduced oil inventories that sent consumer sentiment plunging to record lows and threatened to disrupt the US economy with oil shortages – a problem that Trump last week acknowledged could have led to “economic catastrophe” that would have earned him comparisons to Depression-era President Herbert Hoover. Reopening the strait – which was fully open before the war – won’t immediately solve either of those problems. And the agreement to allow vessels to cross toll-free lasts just 60 days from last Thursday’s signing. Afterward, Iran (and, possibly, Oman) could charge tolls, which have amounted to around $1 to $2 a barrel – potentially giving Iran access to millions of dollars in revenue each day. Iran is selling oil again The good news about the strait’s reopening comes with the caveat that Iran can start selling oil again. And unlike before the war, Iran can sell to literally anyone after the US Treasury waived its sanctions. Many critics worry that Iran will quickly seek to rebuild its shattered military, replenish its drone and missile programs and revive the threat of its proxy network that includes Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran has already started to ship oil again, although there’s yet scant evidence that it’s selling to anyone but China. It successfully exported 3.8 million barrels of oil from the Strait of Hormuz last week, immediately after the US agreed to end its naval blockade, according to maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers. It has ramped up its activity considerably since then. It can probably sell roughly 2 million barrels of oil a day – about a third more than before the war, according to Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at consultancy Rystad. And because those sales would be on the up-and-up, Iran would no longer need to offer steep discounts. Other financial incentives Iran has insisted that it won’t agree to any long-term deal until it gains access to more than $100 billion of assets currently frozen in banks around the world. US officials told CNN last week that no frozen funds will be released until Iran makes good on its commitments. The MOU states that Iran’s frozen funds and assets will be made “fully available” for use by Iran’s central bank but does not detail timing or scope. The agreement could also establish a $300 billion investment fund, which could help the country rebuild. The details remain murky, but the investment fund would be financed privately and not by US taxpayers, according to the administration. Trump told reporters at the G7 meeting last week that other countries and financiers will be able to invest in rebuilding Iran’s economy, but he doubts foreign investors will have significant interest for quite some time. The agreement envisages a final deal removing sanctions on Iran to allow it to freely trade with the rest of the world. Some foreign financial institutions could be more willing to do business with Iran, though many will probably hesitate unless the US Treasury issues specific licenses for particular transactions. A major caveat: It’s not clear how much authority Trump has to lift sanctions unilaterally. A skeptical Congress may have to approve some sanctions relief. The inspections imbroglio to come Trump said on social media this week that UN nuclear inspectors would be allowed access to Iran for “Infinity!!!” Vice President JD Vance hailed Tehran’s agreement to let inspectors in as a “major milestone.” The reality is more complex. It’s not clear that the Islamic Republic has agreed to anything. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei suggested that Tehran was merely recognizing its obligations to the Non-Proliferation Treaty after it suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency in the wake of US bombardment of its nuclear sites last year. The IAEA argues that the MOU requires it to play a key role. Iran counters that any inspections must await a final deal. Showdowns over international inspectors caused years of disputes between the US and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and more recently Iran. Both sides dug in on the specific legal authority and mandates for UN teams, their make-up and whether they had freedom to visit all nuclear or weapons of mass destruction sites, including suspected undeclared locations. Iran is almost certain to roll out the old playbook. And a final deal that lacks stringent verification procedures to monitor Iran’s compliance will not be worth the paper that it’s printed on. Lebanon could tear the deal down The MOU requires the immediate and permanent halting of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. But that country, repeatedly torn apart by civil war and a perpetual battleground between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, could be the deal’s most vulnerable pillar. Trump’s critics, especially in Israel, worry that the agreement effectively allows Iran to repair a proxy force diminished by months of Israeli pummeling. By convincing Trump to include Lebanon, Iran can pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to curtail Israeli military action — or risk the collapse of a deal hugely important to Trump, symbolically, politically and economically. However, Israel does not consider itself bound by the deal. Past Israel-Hezbollah ceasefires in Lebanon have often failed, and, in the run-up to the MOU, Israeli forces made their deepest incursions into Lebanon in the past quarter century. The Trump administration and the Netanyahu team have made no secret of raw feelings over the war’s end. And Israel’s insistence that it maintains the freedom to act to protect its own security in Lebanon — and across the Middle East — will test Trump’s authority as US talks with Iran deepen. And Iran is virtually certain to remind everyone it’s holding a new ace — the threat of closing the strait.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxPa2l4LXFEWjNTdmp3Z0Y4eU9heEMwVk5tc2taQ2szSENzYVlDRXpmMUdBbGFtRWVIUENZYV85OVRPWm93MVFKeTRCV1ZaZFBacllvS1JFNXZGWlZqQTNMUktkT3FHU0c4eEVMbzVIaGRDblNSeE5uXzZfNng5TFl2M2hKRQ?oc=5