에이전틱AI 공포에 BKNG 급락

메리어트(MAR)와 윈덤(WH)이 에이전틱 AI 기반 유통 전략을 구체화하자, OTA 배제 우려가 커지며 부킹홀딩스(BKNG) 주가는 최근 몇 주간 약 30% 하락했습니다. 다만 BTIG는 우려가 과도하다고 평가합니다. 글로벌 상위 15개 체인이 보유한 호텔은 약 5만1000개로, 전 세계 약 120만개 대비 비중이 작고, 부킹의 객실 판매 중 주요 체인 비중도 낮은 두 자릿수에 그쳐 나머지 약 85%는 독립호텔·중소 체인·단기임대에서 발생하기 때문입니다. 일부 독립호텔은 OTA 수수료(최대 25% 이상) 절감을 위해 AI 직판을 검토하고 있지만, 현재 에이전틱 AI 플랫폼을 통한 실제 예약은 아직 미미한 수준입니다.

원문 링크: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wyndham-marriott-agentic-plans-put-213046579.html?.tsrc=rss

Wyndham and Marriott’s Agentic Plans Put Pressure on Booking. Are the Concerns Justified?

Marriott and Wyndham revealed more of their plans to use agentic AI this week, and such efforts are a potential threat to online travel agencies.

Many investors seemingly think agentic AI will enable hotel chains to cut OTAs out of the picture. One reflection of that fear: Booking Holding share price is down roughly 30% over the past few weeks despite a recent strong earnings report .

But BTIG analyst Jake Fuller said the fears are overstated.

For one thing, the vast majority of the world’s hotels are independents and less able to break away from OTAs.

And the top 15 global chains control only around 51,000 of the world’s roughly 1.2 million properties. So their offerings alone wouldn’t give AI platforms enough hotel inventory.

“That’s one of the main reasons that Google never cut OTAs out in paid search,” Fuller wrote in a research note Thursday. “The same AI platforms working with Marriott and Wyndham are also working with Booking and other OTAs. They need to in order to address the vast preponderance of the accommodation options.”

Booking said this week that a low double-digit percentage of its total room nights come from the top global chains. That means perhaps 85% of its room nights come from smaller chains, independent hotels, and short-term rentals.

Booking also argues that it provides independent hotels with technology solutions, including payments, language translation, advertising and customer service, that they would be hard-pressed to accomplish on their own.

“Chains represent a small piece of the global accommodations, BKNG has limited chain exposure & we continue to see OTAs as partners of choice given breadth of supply, global payment networks, service infrastructure & hefty advertising budgets,” Fuller wrote.

Independents aren’t necessarily locked into OTAs anymore, some executives argue. AI has lowered the barriers to building direct distribution technology, said Sanjay Vakil, co-founder and CEO of DirectBooker . In addition, many independent hotels already work with channel managers and other tech aggregators, Vakil said, who could help them distribute through the AI platforms.

Independents also have a financial incentive to seek out AI distribution: some independent hotels have forked over 25% or more in commissions to the OTAs, Vakil said.

Still, Vakil said hotels will have to consider whether they want to anger Booking. “If Booking is sending you 30% of your customers, I probably wouldn’t mess with it,” he said.

It should be noted that despite all the talk about agentic AI, very few bookings are taking place today through these AI platforms.

There have been periods in the past, such as from 2016-2018, when the major chains pushed direct bookings and lower rates for loyalty program members on their websites only.

OTAs such as Expedia and Booking.com took steps to lower the visibility of chains on OTA websites. Regulatory pressures forced the two sides to tamp down their conflict.

Get breaking travel news and exclusive hotel, airline, and tourism research and insights at Skift.com.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wyndham-marriott-agentic-plans-put-213046579.html?.tsrc=rss