테슬라 장기 투자자, 스페이스X IPO 특혜...1.77조 달러 평가에 주목
Can Tesla Bulls Strike Gold Twice? SpaceX IPO Puts The Elon Musk Premium To The Test
스페이스X의 1.77조 달러 IPO가 엘론 머스크 프리미엄을 재점화할 수 있어 테슬라 주가가 상승할 가능성이 있습니다.
핵심 요약
스페이스X의 IPO는 555.6억 주를 1주당 $135에 판매하여 $750억을 조달할 예정입니다.
핵심요약
- 스페이스X IPO, 555.6억 주 판매로 $750억 조달 목표
- 테슬라 10년 장기 투자자, 모건 스탠리 E*TRADE를 통해 IPO 우선 접근
- 아스와스 다모다란, 스페이스X를 'AI와 엘론 머스크에 대한 과감한 베팅'으로 평가
- 테슬라 주가, 2022년 이후 최악의 연도 기록 중
- JPMorgan 로드쇼에서 엘론 머스크, 스타링크 확장 계획 발표
도입
스페이스X의 역사적인 IPO는 장기 테슬라 투자자에게 새로운 기회와 도전을 동시에 제시합니다. 이 IPO가 테슬라의 성공을 재현할 수 있을지, 또는 단순한 엘론 머스크의 개인적 브랜드 효과에 불과할지에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다. 투자자들은 이 기회를 통해 포트폴리오 다각화를 고려하고 있지만, 동시에 높은 변동성과 리스크를 감안해야 합니다.
본문 1: 스페이스X IPO의 시장 반응과 평가
스페이스X IPO는 555.6억 주를 1주당 $135에 판매하여 $750억을 조달하고, 회사를 $1.77조로 평가할 계획입니다. 이는 역사상 가장 큰 IPO 중 하나로, 투자자들의 관심이 집중되고 있습니다. 아스와스 다모다란은 스페이스X를 'AI와 엘론 머스크에 대한 과감한 베팅'이라고 평가하며, 동력이 주가를 상승시킬 수 있지만 투기적 성격을 강조했습니다. JPMorgan이 주최한 로드쇼에서 엘론 머스크는 스타링크 네트워크를 10만 개 이상의 위성으로 확장하고, 궤도 AI 인프라를 구축할 계획이라고 발표하며 투자자들의 기대감을 고조시켰습니다. 이는 스페이스X의 기술적 야심과 시장 잠재력을 보여주는 중요한 신호로 해석됩니다.
본문 2: 테슬라 장기 투자자의 우선 접근 권한과 시장 영향
테슬라를 10년 이상 보유한 장기 투자자들은 모건 스탠리 E*TRADE를 통해 스페이스X IPO에 우선 접근할 수 있는 특혜를 받게 되었습니다. 이는 엘론 머스크가 몇 년 전 약속한 장기 투자자 우선 접근 정책이 실현된 것으로, 테슬라 주식의 장기적 가치에 대한 신뢰를 반영합니다. 그러나 테슬라 주가는 올해 6개월 중 4개월을 적자로 시작하며, 2022년 이후 최악의 연도를 기록하고 있습니다. 이는 스페이스X IPO가 테슬라의 주가 추세에 미칠 영향을 예측하기 어렵게 만들며, 투자자들은 신중한 접근이 필요합니다.
본문 3: 스페이스X IPO의 장기적 전망과 리스크
스페이스X IPO는 기술적 혁신과 시장 확장 가능성을 바탕으로 하지만, 동시에 높은 변동성과 리스크를 동반합니다. 스타링크 네트워크의 확장과 궤도 AI 인프라 구축은 미래 성장 동력으로 작용할 수 있지만, 기술적 난관과 규제 리스크가 존재합니다. 또한, 스페이스X의 높은 평가와 투자자들의 기대감이 현실과 괴리될 가능성도 고려해야 합니다. 이는 장기적으로 주가 변동성을 높일 수 있는 요인입니다.
결론
스페이스X IPO는 기술적 혁신과 시장 확장 가능성을 바탕으로 하지만, 동시에 높은 변동성과 리스크를 동반합니다. 테슬라 장기 투자자들에게는 새로운 기회이지만, 신중한 접근이 필요합니다. 향후 스페이스X의 기술적 진전과 시장 반응을 주목해야 합니다.
Original Article
Can Tesla Bulls Strike Gold Twice? SpaceX IPO Puts The Elon Musk Premium To The Test
Tesla holders with over 10 years in TSLA are getting special access to SpaceX's historic IPO through Morgan Stanley's ETRADE.The IPO fulfills Musk's years-old pledge to prioritize retail investors and long-term Tesla shareholders.'Dean of Valuation' Aswath Damodaran calls SpaceX a "loaded bet on AI and Elon Musk" but says momentum could still drive shares higher.Five years after Elon Musk promised to give long-term Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) shareholders priority access to a future space venture IPO, some investors are finally getting their chance. The question now is whether SpaceX can do for them what Tesla once did.After spending four of the year's first six months so far in the red, TSLA shares are staring down their worst year since 2022, despite a strong May rally that marked the stock's best month since September 2025.Tesla Loyalists Get SpaceX AccessETRADE has informed qualifying clients that it has established a supplemental allocation process for SpaceX's upcoming IPO, allowing investors who have held Tesla shares in their accounts for at least 10 years to receive additional consideration when seeking shares in the offering.The move comes as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in history, raising a broader question that extends beyond the IPO process itself: are investors buying into a company, or are they once again betting on Elon Musk?SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at a massive $1.77 trillion. The valuation could also exceed $1.8 trillion on a fully diluted basis. The offering is scheduled to price on June 11, with shares expected to begin trading the next day.Investor demand has reportedly been exceptionally strong after a JPMorgan-hosted roadshow, where Musk outlined plans to expand Starlink to more than 100,000 satellites and build orbital AI infrastructure. Analysts involved in the roadshow have apparently been fielding 20 investor calls per day, above the 10 to 15 calls typically seen for highly sought-after IPOs.The filing itself painted an enormous vision for the company, outlining a $28.5 trillion market opportunity spanning launch services, Starlink connectivity, direct-to-cell communications and AI infrastructure. SpaceX called it the "largest actionable total addressable market in human history."The filing added fuel to one of Wall Street's favorite Musk theories. SpaceX disclosed it may issue a significant amount of equity in future transactions, reviving chatter about potential stock-based deals and even a future merger of Musk's two most valuable companies. Musk's Retail Promise Comes Full CircleThe special allocation program traces back to comments Musk made in 2021 when discussing a potential SpaceX public offering: "At least a few years before Starlink revenue is reasonably predictable. Going public sooner than that would be very painful. Will do my best to give long-term Tesla shareholders preference," Musk said on X at the time. In another post from 2020, Musk favored retail investors by saying: "I'm a huge fan of small retail investors. Will make sure they get top priority [when SpaceX goes public]. You can hold me to it."Alongside E*TRADE's special allocation process, Fidelity said the company has reserved up to 30% of the IPO for retail investors, far above the 5%-10% typically allocated in most high-profile listings. The larger retail allocation prompted Fidelity to lower eligibility requirements for participation to customers with as little as $2,000 in a brokerage account.While SpaceX ultimately chose to take the parent company public rather than spin off Starlink, many retail investors view the allocation programs as a fulfillment of Musk's years-old pledge to give individual investors and loyal Tesla shareholders a seat at the IPO table.The Elon Musk PremiumNYU professor Aswath Damodaran, deemed as the "Dean of Valuation," estimated SpaceX's equity value at $1.25 trillion to $1.35 trillion, below the IPO valuation. He said the company is "too richly priced" for his investment style at current levels. Still, Damodaran acknowledged that traders focused on momentum rather than intrinsic value may see things differently: "I would not be surprised in the least to see the offering priced at $1.8 trillion, and see a jump in the price on the day of or in the weeks after the offering," he wrote.His broader conclusion was that SpaceX is ultimately a wager on Musk and AI: "There is no denying that this company is a loaded bet on the AI and Elon Musk," Damodaran said, adding that some investors may look at "Musk's track record with Tesla and feel the odds are in their favor."A Backdoor Into The S&P 500?The IPO frenzy comes despite a setback this week from S&P Dow Jones Indices. The index provider said it would make "no changes" to eligibility requirements for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 after a consultation on newly listed megacap companies. The decision is significant since SpaceX reported a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025. Under existing rules, S&P 500 constituents must generate positive GAAP earnings in both the latest quarter and the trailing four quarters.However, Tesla influencer Alexandra Merz, who posts on X under the handle TeslaBoomerMama, argued that S&P's decision may ultimately leave the timing of SpaceX's index inclusion in Musk's hands. "S&P will regret this," Merz said on X. "Now it's Elon deciding when SpaceX gets included, by merging with Tesla."Merz said that S&P's decision leaves open an alternative route for SpaceX. Since Tesla is already an S&P 500 constituent, she said a future stock-for-stock merger between the two companies could allow the combined entity to inherit Tesla's place in the index, potentially accelerating SpaceX's path to inclusion. Notably, no such transaction has been proposed by either company. How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SpaceX?On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA over the past six months has mostly been bearish amid over a 60% decline in message volumes in a year. Retail investors who have pinned TSLA on their watchlist have risen by a modest 2% over the past year. TSLA sentiment and message volume as of June 5 | Source: StocktwitsOne user speculated anxiously, “will $TSLA pop tomorrow? Will enough retail investors have FOMO before SPACEX ipo thinking $TSLA will run and get it this week ?? I don’t know just a feeling…..”https://stocktwits.com/Jimmyjj200/message/655499505Another user said, “$TSLA trades to nearly 400 trailing P/E and 200 forward P/E, TSLA is a cult stock so likely SpaceXAI will be too, it will 100% go up on the first day so if you buy in at the start and dump before the day is over you can net a tidy profit”https://stocktwits.com/MichaelOb/message/655499568So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s second-worst performer, with a 7% decline. For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.Read Next: RIVN Stock Snaps Record Streak: Rivian Reverses R1 Discounts Days Before High-Stakes R2 Launch