핵심요약

• 최근 3일간 30% 급락한 스페이스X는 매출액 100배, EBITDA 200배의 높은 배수에 거래 중
• 8월 중순부터 9월 초까지 최대 44%의 주식이 유통될 가능성이 있으며, 현재 유통주식수를 약 900% 증가시킬 전망
• OpenAI와 Anthropic이 각각 1조 달러 이상의 기업가치를 목표로 IPO를 준비 중

도입

스페이스X의 주가 급락과 동시에 인사이더의 락업 해제 기간이 임박하면서, 투자자들은 추가 하락 가능성에 대비해야 합니다. 또한, OpenAI와 Anthropic의 IPO가 임박해 투자자 자본에 대한 경쟁이 심화될 전망이며, 이는 스페이스X의 주가 변동성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

본문 1: 인사이더 락업 해제와 유통주식 증가

스페이스X의 인사이더 락업 해제는 8월 중순부터 9월 초까지 단계적으로 이루어질 전망이며, 최대 44%의 주식이 유통될 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 현재 유통주식수를 약 900% 증가시킬 전망이며, 이는 주가 하락 압력으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 과거의 Mega IPO 사례를 보면, 락업 해제 기간 동안 주가가 추가 하락한 사례가 많았으며, 스페이스X도 이를 피하기 어렵을 전망입니다. 따라서 투자자들은 인사이더의 주식 판매 압력에 대비해야 합니다.

본문 2: OpenAI와 Anthropic의 IPO 영향

OpenAI와 Anthropic은 각각 1조 달러 이상의 기업가치를 목표로 IPO를 준비 중이며, 이는 투자자 자본에 대한 경쟁을 심화시킬 전망입니다. 스페이스X는 이미 높은 배수에 거래되고 있으며, OpenAI와 Anthropic의 IPO가 성공적으로 진행될 경우, 투자자들은 스페이스X보다는 OpenAI와 Anthropic에 자금을 집중할 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 스페이스X의 주가 하락 압력을 가중시킬 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 OpenAI와 Anthropic의 IPO 일정과 주가 동향을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 합니다.

본문 3: 장기적인 전망

스페이스X는 여전히 높은 성장 잠재력을 가지고 있으며, 장기적으로는 주가 회복 가능성이 있습니다. 그러나 단기적으로는 인사이더의 주식 판매 압력과 OpenAI와 Anthropic의 IPO 영향으로 주가 하락 압력이 지속될 전망입니다. 따라서 투자자들은 단기적인 주가 변동성과 장기적인 성장 잠재력을 고려해 투자 결정을 내리는 것이 중요합니다.

결론

스페이스X의 주가 하락은 인사이더의 락업 해제와 OpenAI, Anthropic의 IPO 영향으로 인해 추가 하락 가능성이 있습니다. 그러나 장기적으로는 높은 성장 잠재력을 가지고 있으므로, 투자자들은 단기적인 주가 변동성과 장기적인 성장 잠재력을 고려해 투자 결정을 내리는 것이 중요합니다. 특히, 인사이더의 주식 판매 압력과 OpenAI, Anthropic의 IPO 일정을 주의 깊게 관찰하는 것이 필요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.trefis.com/articles/604001/spacex-stock-the-slide-isnt-over/2026-06-23?.tsrc=rss

SpaceX Stock: The Slide Isn't Over

SpaceX (SPCX) 30% drop over the last three trading days looks dramatic.

Even after the selloff, SpaceX trades at roughly 100x trailing revenue and close to 200x trailing EBITDA despite revenue growth in the low-30% range. With insider lockups set to expire, competing trillion-dollar AI IPOs approaching, and interest-rate expectations moving higher, the stock still appears priced for perfection. SpaceX At 100x Revenue: A Warning From 2000

When a company goes public, insiders and employees are typically barred from selling their shares for a set period after the IPO. At SpaceX, those restrictions begin unwinding fast. A 20% insider share unlock triggers after earnings in early to mid-August, with additional 7% unlocks scheduled around August 21 and September 10. A separate 10% unlock kicks in automatically if the stock trades 30% above its IPO price. SpaceX’s workforce is enormous and heavily compensated in equity, and even a modest percentage choosing to sell creates a supply overhang the market has not priced in. Past mega-IPOs from Facebook to Uber experienced meaningful secondary declines at lockup expiry, and none of them came with an unlock schedule this aggressive. Insiders could flood the market with up to 44% of shares by early September, increasing the current float by roughly 900%. SpaceX Stock’s Lockup: You’ve Been Warned

The most consequential competing IPOs due in the next couple of months are not generic tech listings. OpenAI and Anthropic have already confidentially filed for IPOs, with Anthropic filing in early June and OpenAI following days later, setting the stage for highly anticipated late-2026 debuts. Both are expected to price at valuations exceeding a trillion dollars and carry long-horizon narratives about reshaping the global economy. Institutional investors have finite capital and a finite appetite for speculative risk. Together, OpenAI and Anthropic could seek hundreds of billions of dollars in investor capital, creating a powerful competing destination for growth-oriented funds. This could impact SpaceX directly.

Rates and the new Fed chair are serious wildcards.

With inflation re-accelerating and a new Fed chair taking office, higher-for-longer rates are back on the table. While Kevin Warsh held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at his first meeting, the committee’s tone shifted sharply. Nine of his colleagues signaled support for higher rates this year, six of them backing two quarter-point increases. As recently as March, not a single policymaker had penciled in a hike. The inflation driving that reversal is real: CPI hit 4.2% in May, the highest reading in three years, fueled largely by the oil price spike from the Iran conflict. SpaceX is the definition of a long-duration asset – most of the Starship and SpaceX AI cash flows sit a decade or more away. Every 25 basis points added to the risk-free rate effectively compresses what terminal value is worth today.

Fundamentals Don’t Back Up Valuation

The valuation gap remains difficult to justify. Our discounted cash flow model points to a fair value of roughly $79 per share , implying a valuation of roughly $1 trillion. Several key assumptions embedded in the current price look optimistic. Starlink’s ARPU is declining as subscriber growth shifts toward lower-income international markets. The launch business remains dependent on Falcon 9 profits being recycled into Starship development, while Starship itself has yet to demonstrate reliable commercial operations at scale. Meanwhile, underwriters have promoted SpaceXAI as a major future growth engine, but the business remains highly speculative, burning nearly $8 billion per quarter with limited distribution. At today’s valuation, investors are paying for years of flawless execution before that execution has actually occurred. See how SpaceX’s financials compare with other publicly listed Space stocks such as Redwire (RDW) and Rocket Lab (RKLB)

SpaceX is asking investors to back an AI infrastructure thesis priced for perfection, at multiples that leave little room for the unexpected. Balancing speculative bets like this against proven cash-generating platforms becomes critical. A disciplined portfolio approach helps you stay invested by limiting the impact of market shocks. While consistently beating the market is a challenge, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is designed to make it an achievable goal. The HQ strategy has consistently outperformed its market benchmark since inception, delivering cumulative returns of over 105 percent.

Source: https://www.trefis.com/articles/604001/spacex-stock-the-slide-isnt-over/2026-06-23?.tsrc=rss