미국 상원, 트럼프의 이란 군사행동 제재 결의안 통과 (50대48)
Senate for first time approves a war powers resolution in a rebuke to Trump over Iran conflict - Los Angeles Times
미국 상원의 Iran 전쟁 권한 결의안 통과로 정치적 불확실성이 증가했지만, 당분간 시장에는 큰 영향이 없을 것으로 예상됩니다.
핵심 요약
미국 상원은 이란 군사행동 제한 결의안을 50대48로 통과시켰으며, 이는 10번째 시도 중 첫 성공입니다.
핵심요약
- 상원은 이란 군사행동 제한 결의안을 50대48로 통과 (10번째 시도 중 첫 성공)
- 4명의 공화당 상원이 민주당과 함께 투표 (리사 머코우스키, 수잔 콜린스, 랜드 폴, 빌 캐시디)
- 펜타곤, 이란 전쟁에 $80억 추가 예산 요청 중
- 하원도 이번 달 초 결의안 통과 (트럼프의 이란 정책에 대한 우려 반영)
- 부통령 JD 밴스, 해외에서 이란의 핵 야망 협상 중
도입
이번 상원의 결의안 통과는 트럼프 행정부의 이란 정책에 대한 의회 내 반발이 본격화되었음을 보여줍니다. 특히 공화당 내에서도 트럼프의 일방적 군사행동에 대한 비판이 확산되고 있는 점이 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 이번 결의안이 법적 구속력이 없더라도, 향후 군사예산 편성이나 외교정책 수립에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.
본문 1: 공화당 내 분열 가속화
상원의 이번 결의안 투표에서 4명의 공화당 상원이 민주당과 함께 투표한 것은 주목할 만한 현상입니다. 특히 리사 머코우스키 상원과 수잔 콜린스 상원은 과거에도 트럼프의 군사정책에 비판적인 입장을 보였던 인물들로, 이번 투표를 통해 공화당 내에서도 트럼프의 정책에 대한 반발이 커지고 있음을 보여줍니다. 이번 결의안 통과로 트럼프 행정부는 의회에서 추가 군사행동을 추진하기 어려워질 전망입니다.
본문 2: 군사예산 편성 차질 가능성
펜타곤이 $80억의 추가 예산을 요청한 것은 이란 전쟁에 대한 군사적 비용이 계속 증가하고 있음을 보여줍니다. 그러나 이번 결의안 통과로 의회가 군사예산을 승인하는 과정에서 정치적 마찰이 발생할 가능성이 있습니다. 특히 공화당 내에서도 군사예산에 대한 지지가 약화되고 있는 점을 고려할 때, 향후 군사예산 편성에 대한 불확실성이 커질 전망입니다.
본문 3: 중동 정세 변동성의 영향
이번 결의안 통과와 펜타곤의 추가 예산 요청은 중동 정세 변동성이 지속될 가능성을 시사합니다. 특히 이란의 핵 야망에 대한 협상이 진행 중인 상황에서, 군사적 긴장이 지속될 경우 중동 지역의 정치·경제적 불안정이 더욱 심화될 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 에너지 시장과 관련 산업에 영향을 미칠 수 있어 투자자들에게 중요한 변수를 제공합니다.
결론
이번 상원의 결의안 통과는 트럼프 행정부의 이란 정책에 대한 의회 내 반발이 본격화되었음을 보여줍니다. 향후 의회와 행정부 간의 정책 차이로 인해 군사예산 편성이나 외교정책 수립에 차질이 발생할 가능성이 있습니다. 투자자들은 중동 정세 변동성과 관련 산업의 변동성에 주목할 필요가 있습니다.
Original Article
Senate for first time approves a war powers resolution in a rebuke to Trump over Iran conflict - Los Angeles Times
The Senate for the first time approved a war powers resolution Tuesday seeking to block U.S. military action against Iran, as lawmakers warily watch President Trump’s efforts to resolve a conflict that the administration launched on its own and now needs Congress to fund. It was the 10th time the Senate has tried to stop the war, and the outcome, on a vote of 50 to 48, was a stunning turnaround from past efforts. While the resolution is largely symbolic, and does not fully carry the force of law, it reflects the growing concerns from a number of Republican lawmakers in both the House and Senate over both the war and the deal Trump struck with Iran to end it. The House approved the resolution earlier this month. “Time after time, the vast majority of Senate Republicans sided with Trump and his war instead of the American people,” said Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. Schumer said Americans have paid the price for “Trump's historic blunder in Iran. It'll go down in the history books as one of the worst foreign policy forays America has ever made.” In the past, as many as four GOP senators have voted for the war powers resolutions, and they did so Tuesday — Republicans Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. One Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, voted against the resolution. On this vote, the absence of two Republicans, including Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who was admitted to the hospital recently for an undisclosed matter, left the GOP without a full majority to halt the effort. Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) also missed the vote. The vote also comes as the Pentagon is seeking $80 billion from Congress, mostly for the Iran war as it backfills munitions and stockpiles. Trump himself is headed to the Capitol this week to meet with GOP senators as Vice President JD Vance has been overseas working to negotiate with Iran to end its nuclear ambitions — which had been among the stated rationales for the war. The president is not pleased with the Republicans who have been critical of the deal he struck with Iran, according to one GOP senator granted anonymity to discuss the private dynamics. The terms of the Iran deal are spelled out in a memorandum of understanding that Trump signed last week, starting a 60-day clock for the sides to reach a broader agreement over ending Iran's nuclear program. But Republicans have particularly objected to the $300-billion fund to help Iran rebuild, which is far greater than the $1.7 billion then-President Obama refunded the country under his administration's 2015 Iran deal. "I believe President Trump is getting very poor advice on Iran," Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said last week on his podcast after the deal was made public. Over and again, Democrats have been forcing votes on the Iran war, almost since the U.S. and Israel launched missile strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Nearly each week they're in session, the Senate Democrats have put forward war powers resolutions, but they have failed to amass the majority needed for passage in the narrowly split chamber, where Trump’s Republican Party holds the majority. The House pushed its own version to passage earlier this month, with four Republicans joining all Democrats in approving the war powers resolution, over the objections of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and the GOP leadership. While such resolutions do not go to the president for his signature, passage stands as a powerful, if symbolic, statement from Congress and a rebuke of the administration’s military actions. Sen. Tim Kaine, the Democrat from Virginia who has led his party’s efforts, said the pause in warfighting, as Trump’s team works to shore up a fragile ceasefire, provides the perfect time for Congress to step back and assess “what should the next chapter be.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is also on Capitol Hill this week, seeking roughly $80 billion in supplemental funding to shore up defense supplies in the aftermath of the Iran war, which is drawing scrutiny when many Americans are reeling from high gas prices and costs of living. The Pentagon early on had estimated the war cost $11.3 billion during its first week, and experts have put the overall price tag at close to $100 billion. The Defense Department's funding request is part of a broader beef-up of military money the White House wants as part of its budget request this year. The Trump administration is seeking $1.5 trillion in defense funding this year — a 50% increase — including $350 billion that it wants in a so-called budget reconciliation package. Johnson and GOP leaders are working to pass that package on their own, over the objections of Democrats, much the way they approved Trump's big tax cuts bill last year. The 2025 tax cuts package also included a sizable increase of about $175 billion for the military. Mascaro writes for the Associated Press.