미국-이스라엘 vs 이란 전쟁의 글로벌 경제적 영향
Tallying the global cost of the US-Israel war against Iran - The Guardian
지역 분쟁이 확대될 가능성은 있지만, 시장의 구체적인 방향성을 예측하기는 어렵습니다. 따라서 중립적인 입장을 유지하는 것이 합리적입니다.
핵심 요약
미국-이스라엘 vs 이란 전쟁으로 하루에 20억 달러의 군사 비용이 소모되고 있습니다.
핵심요약
- 이란에서 3,300명 사망, 부상자 10배
- 하루 군사 비용 20억 달러, 8700만 명의 구호 자금으로 사용 가능
- 전쟁으로 인한 지정학적 불안정성, 코로나19 팬데믹보다 높음
- 2022년 우크라이나 침공과 2003년 이라크 침공과 비교될 정도로 큰 영향
도입
이번 분석은 투자자에게 왜 이란 전쟁이 중요한지를 설명합니다. 이 전쟁은 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향이 크며, 특히 에너지 시장과 군사 산업에 큰 변화를 가져올 전망입니다. 또한, 전쟁으로 인한 지정학적 불안정성이 투자 결정에 미치는 영향을 분석할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 1: 에너지 시장 변동성
에너지 시장에서는 전쟁으로 인한 불안정성이 가격 변동성을 높이고 있습니다. 특히 석유 가격이 급등하며, 이는 인플레이션을 악화시키고 있습니다. 이는 에너지 기업의 수익에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있지만, 동시에 경제 전체에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 에너지 시장의 변동성을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정해야 합니다.
본문 2: 군사 산업의 성장 가능성
전쟁은 군사 산업에 큰 수요를 창출하고 있습니다. 특히 미사일과 방어 시스템에 대한 수요가 증가하며, 관련 기업들의 수익이 증가할 전망입니다. 그러나 장기적으로는 전쟁의 지속성이 고려되어야 합니다. 군사 산업의 성장 가능성이 있지만, 전쟁의 장기화는 글로벌 경제에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
결론
이란 전쟁은 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향이 크며, 특히 에너지 시장과 군사 산업에 큰 변화를 가져올 전망입니다. 투자자들은 전쟁의 지속성과 그 영향력을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정해야 합니다. 또한, 지정학적 불안정성이 투자 결정에 미치는 영향을 분석할 필요가 있습니다.
Original Article
Tallying the global cost of the US-Israel war against Iran - The Guardian
From thousands of lives lost to an economic shock likely to plunge millions into poverty, the world is paying dearly
I t would be hard to find a human on Earth unaffected by the US-Israel war against Iran. Several thousand have been killed. Millions are paying more each day in steeper food prices or at the petrol pump, and as inflation eats away at the value of their earnings.
For many, the final bill has not yet come, but it will eventually. They will pay for the long-term damage caused by the biggest threat of all to the global economy: uncertainty.
Uncertainty is hard to measure, but one way is to look at geopolitical risk, which stalls investment and employment. The US Federal Reserve economists Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello have created an index that tracks reports of global tension. It shows the Iran war has been more destabilising than the Covid-19 pandemic, but on a par with either the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or that of Iraq in 2003.
So how does the world tally the cost of this war? Some costs are easier to calculate than others, such as bills for surface-to-air missiles that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars each. Others are harder to quantify, including the damage caused to Iranian and Lebanese hospitals and power networks. Much cannot be valued at all – the lives lost, including the 120 primary schoolchildren in Iran killed on the first day of the war.
Then there are hypothetical costs. A senior UN aid official framed the conflict in terms of opportunity cost, noting that the $2bn (£1.5bn) a day spent on military operations could otherwise cover lifesaving aid for roughly 87 million people .
And what about the beneficiaries of this war, the oil companies and the shareholders of arms manufacturers?
Here are some ways the impact of the war has been assessed:
The vast majority of the killings have targeted Iranian and Lebanese people.
In Iran, US and Israel bombings have killed more than 3,300 people and injured more than ten times that number, according to Iranian authorities. Twenty schools have been destroyed , and 240 health and medical facilities have been damaged. Water pipes have been blown up and cultural sites damaged, including five world heritage sites and 54 museums.
Israel opened a second front of the war when it invaded its northern neighbour, Lebanon, where it is fighting against the Iran-allied militant group Hezbollah. That war within a war has now become the most deadly part of the broader conflict – Israeli attacks have killed more than 3,700 people, according to Lebanese authorities, including women, children and medics. The widespread Israeli bombing of civilian areas has displaced more than 1 million Lebanese people – roughly a fifth of the country’s population.
More than 100 people have been killed in Iraq, where Iran-allied groups operate, and in Israel, about 50 people have been killed. Since the start of the Iran war on 28 February, at least 15 US military personnel have died, and American bases across the region have been significant damaged.
Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, faced Iranian drone and missile attacks, which have killed civilians and damaged hotels, airports, and critical oil and gas infrastructure.
Israeli forces have not halted the killing of Palestinians during the conflict, including dozens in Gaza and the West Bank, adding to the more than 70,000 killed in Palestine since the Gaza war began in 2023.
For years, Israel had pushed the US to bomb Iran, but no administration in Washington agreed, seeing it as counterproductive and fearing the political, security and economic chaos that is now playing out.
The conflict has not achieved regime change or ended Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but instead left governments and businesses scrambling in the fallout. A peace deal has been announced but the terms, or how it will be implemented, remain unclear.
In its World Economic Outlook published in April, the International Monetary Fund said the global economy was already on edge after “higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year”, alluding to Donald Trump’s tariff war.
The IMF and the World Bank have marked down their forecasts for the global economy, showing how the Iran war has stalled growth.
Economists at the investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate that US economic growth will be 0.5 percentage points lower as a result of the war. Even if the war ends swiftly, the US will take years to pay it off.
Not even the White House denies that the war will be a massive cost, but ithas attempted to play down its probable price tag. One estimate in May came from a senior Pentagon official, who said the conflict had cost $29bn by then.
Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, wrote in the New York Times that when accounting for the full macroeconomic fallout, a typical US household would probably have to pay thousands – or even tens of thousands – of dollars for the war.
Severe business shocks have started to emerge. The world’s largest carmaker, Toyota, has reported a £3bn hit, as prices of parts and materials soared and sales dropped.
The International Energy Agency, the world’s energy watchdog set up in the 1970s as a response to an oil crisis, has been clear in its assessment of the impact of the conflict on fossil fuels. “The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” it said.
Responding to the US-Israeli bombing, Iran closed the strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply previously moved.
Facing calls to reopen the waterway, Trump put pressure on Iran to end its blockade, but failed and later decided to impose his own blockade, leading to more fuel price hikes and threats of long-term inflation.