트럼프, 이란 분쟁 중 '폭격 위협' 재차 표명: 지정학적 리스크 고조
Trump Wakes Up and Threatens to “Bomb the Shit” Out of Another Country - The New Republic
지정학적 수사는 시장에 상당한 불확실성을 야기하여 전반적인 위험 회피 포지션을 유발합니다.
핵심 요약
트럼프 대통령이 오만 개입 시 폭격을 위협하는 가운데, 이란군은 미군 포로 관련 현상금을 제시하며 중동 지역의 군사적 긴장 상태가 고조되고 있습니다.
핵심요약
- 트럼프 대통령은 오만 개입 시 폭격을 하겠다고 위협하며 지정학적 긴장감을 고조시켰습니다.
- 이란군은 미군 포로 포획/살해에 대해 시작 금액 30,000달러의 현상금을 제시했습니다.
- 이란 국가는 포획된 무기를 시장 가치의 두 배로 구매하고 박물관에 전시하겠다고 발표했습니다.
- 트럼프 대통령은 평화 협정 임박을 주장하면서도 폭격 캠페인을 확대할 가능성을 언급했습니다.
도입
본 기사는 트럼프 대통령의 발언과 이란의 군사적 요구가 미국-이란 분쟁의 지정학적 양상을 어떻게 변화시키고 있는지 분석합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 극단적인 군사적 위협이 중동 에너지 시장과 글로벌 공급망에 미치는 잠재적 위험을 평가해야 합니다.
본문 1: 군사적 위협과 현상금의 의미
트럼프 대통령이 오만 개입에 대해 폭격을 위협한 것은 현재의 휴전 상태가 지속될 가능성에 대한 불확실성을 반영합니다. 특히 이란 군 최고 사령관 아미르 하타미가 미군 포로 포획 또는 살해에 대해 시작 금액 30,000달러의 현상금을 제시한 것은 이란이 군사적 우위를 확보하려는 의지를 보여줍니다. 이는 단순한 보상 이상의 의미를 가지며, 분쟁 당사국 간의 비공식적인 협상 채널과 무력 사용의 경계가 극도로 모호해졌음을 의미합니다. 이러한 현상금 제도는 분쟁이 장기화될 경우 인도주의적 문제와 군사적 행동의 경제적 가치를 극단적으로 높여, 중동 지역의 불안정성이 직접적인 경제적 위험으로 전환될 수 있음을 시사합니다.
본문 2: 평화 협상과 전략적 통제
트럼프 대통령이 평화 협정이 임박했다고 주장하면서도 폭격 캠페인을 확대할 가능성을 언급한 것은 외교적 압박과 군사적 행동 사이의 복잡한 전략을 보여줍니다. 이는 미국이 군사적 강압을 통해 외교적 목표를 달성하려는 시도와, 동시에 국제적 동맹 및 군사적 역량에 대한 우려 사이에서 균형을 잡으려는 시도로 해석됩니다. 또한, 트럼프 대통령이 호르무즈 해협을 미국의 영토로 선언하려 한 시도는 해상 통제권과 에너지 흐름에 대한 전략적 통제권을 확보하려는 의도를 반영합니다. 이는 에너지 자원의 운송 경로가 지정학적 갈등의 핵심 요소로 작용하며, 국제 해운 및 에너지 시장의 변동성을 극대화시키는 요인으로 작용합니다.
본문 3: 글로벌 경제 및 에너지 시장에 미치는 파급 효과
미국과 이란 간의 갈등이 지속됨에 따라 전 세계 경제는 계속해서 피해를 입고 있으며, 이는 중동 지역의 에너지 공급 불안정성을 심화시킵니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협과 같은 핵심 해상 통로의 불안정성은 원유 및 가스 수출에 직접적인 영향을 미치며, 이는 국제 유가와 천연가스 가격의 급등으로 이어집니다. 이러한 에너지 가격의 변동성은 전 세계 인플레이션 압력을 가중시키고, 글로벌 공급망의 비용을 증가시키는 결과를 초래합니다. 따라서 지정학적 위험은 단순한 군사적 충돌을 넘어, 글로벌 인플레이션과 경제적 불확실성을 증폭시키는 주요 동인으로 작용한다는 점이 중요합니다.
결론
결론적으로, 트럼프 대통령의 위협과 이란의 현상금 제시는 분쟁이 군사적 차원을 넘어 경제적, 지정학적 차원에서 복잡하게 얽혀 있음을 보여줍니다. 향후 중동 지역의 안정화 여부는 군사적 행동뿐만 아니라 국제 사회의 외교적 개입과 에너지 시장의 반응에 달려 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 변동성이 에너지 가격과 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링해야 할 것입니다.
Original Article
Trump Wakes Up and Threatens to “Bomb the Shit” Out of Another Country - The New Republic
On the day the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled to expire, President Trump threatened to bomb a different country.
Fox News’s Trey Yingst reported on the network Monday that Trump claimed there is a backchannel with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard officials, but that he is in “no hurry” and, “if Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them.”
It’s not a reassuring statement, especially considering that Iranian Army chief Amir Hatami on Sunday announced bounties for the death or capture of U.S. troops. The sums start at $30,000 and double if a woman completes the mission. Hatami said the plan came after a “large number of requests” to support the war.
“Anyone who kills or captures and hands over invading American military personnel will receive a reward equivalent to $30,000,” Hatami said. “Courageous Iranian women who carry out such an action will receive double the reward.”
Any weapon captured in such an operation would be bought by the Iranian Army for twice its market value and displayed in a museum, according to Iranian state media.
Trump has alternatively threatened to escalate the bombing campaign against Iran while claiming that a peace deal is imminent. Usually, at the last minute, Trump claims he has pulled back from bombing for one reason or another, such as U.S. allies in the region warning against escalation or U.S. military leaders warning of declining missile stockpiles.
On Friday, Trump said that he planned to declare the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. territory, even as Iran continues to throttle maritime traffic through the critical waterway. The area is split between Omani and Iranian territory, and oil and gas from Persian Gulf countries are exported to the world from there. As this war stretches on without Trump sticking to a deal, the global economy continues to suffer, with civilians in Iran and around the Middle East praying that they don’t fall victim to a bomb or airstrike.
President Trump’s last desperate attempt to avoid paying E. Jean Carroll has just been shut down by the Supreme Court.
Trump sought to overturn a 2023 jury verdict awarding $5 million to Carroll for defamation and alleged sexual abuse. The Supreme Court rejected an earlier appeal from Trump in June, and Trump wanted them to take the rare step of rehearing the case, which the court unceremoniously denied Monday.
Carroll accused Trump of sexually assaulting her in a New York City department store in 1996, which Trump denied, attacking her on social media and accusing her of “a complete con job” and a “Hoax and a lie.” She sued him in 2022, and a jury ruled against him, leading to a series of appeals by Trump.
The president eventually paid the cash to Carroll through a fund set up during the appeals process, which grew to $5.8 million after interest. He continues to insist that he didn’t know Carroll and accuses her of making up the story for political and financial reasons, even as he lost another defamation lawsuit to Carroll for $88.3 million, which he also appealing.
Trump is likely to throw a tantrum over the ruling, just as he did when the Supreme Court turned him down in June. He hates having to pay money that he owes, despite the fact that he’s financially better than ever thanks to using the presidency to enrich himself . This time, though, Trump is out of excuses to evade paying Carroll.
President Trump on Sunday said he ordered the Pentagon to “significantly” reduce the amount of joint military exercises with South Korea, due to his “very good relationship” with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.
“Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea. These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful,” he wrote Sunday evening on Truth Social.
“I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises!” he continued, attributing his decision to South Korea’s position on the Iran war.
“While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, ‘No thanks!’”
It’s unclear how the U.S. plans to reduce the exercises. The annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise already proceeded as planned on Monday, the South Korean Defense Ministry confirmed—with 18,000 South Korean forces and 28,500 American ones.
Nonetheless, Trump is spiting South Korea, a longtime ally, for not helping bail him out in Iran while also making a clear overture to the one country it has the most hostile and adversarial relationship with.
“Trump’s description of the D.P.R.K. as ‘unthreatening and respectful’ is alarming to allies, who have watched the regime steadily improve its missile and nuclear capabilities, while also gaining an additional patron in Russia for its support in the war on Ukraine,” Asia Society Policy Institute Deputy Director Emma Chanlett-Avery told The New York Times .
This is just the latest example of the deteriorating U.S.-South Korea relationship under Trump. South Korea has been hit by U.S. tariffs, had hundreds of its citizens ( with valid work visas ) detained in an immigration raid, and now has lost access to joint military exercizes—all while Trump praises Kim Jong Un and North Korea continues to expand its military capabilities.
“For 70 years, America has held these joint exercises to train AND reassure its Asia-Pacific allies. Furthermore, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is NOT respectful of the USA, now or ever. In the past few months, he has blatantly said NoKo is and always will be a nuclear power, specifically to ward off any hostile action, like America and Israel’s war on Iran,” CNN’s Christiane Amanpour mused Monday on X.
“He already has dozens of nukes, and in June, called for an ‘exponential’ expansion of Pyongyang’s arsenal. They’d already ramped up dramatically since Trump’s failed Hanoi summit with Kim in 2019, which I covered,” she continued. “Since then, Kim has ramped up missile testing, while his soldiers now have real battlefield experience since fighting for Russia against Ukraine. Respectful?”
Detainees at a Mississippi Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility reportedly got sick from a gas leak, complaining of headaches and other medical symptoms.
The Guardian reports that the Adams County Correctional Facility, which is run by the private prison contractor CoreCivic on behalf of ICE, also had a long power outage, leading to a loss of air conditioning for two days this week. This forced detainees to either roast inside cramped cells or spend hours outside in 100-degree temperatures without shade, one detainee told the publication through family members.
The high temperatures also raised tempers, with arguments and physical incidents increasing among the detainees in a facility that is understaffed, causing the publication’s source to fear for his own safety. The gas leak reportedly took place Saturday, and the source, who spoke to The Guardian anonymously, said detainees were evacuated “out into the afternoon heat for hours.”