핵심요약

• 5월 PCE 인플레이션 전월 대비 0.4% 증가, 연간 4.1% 상승
• 코어 PCE 월 0.3%, 연 3.4% 상승
• 애플 제품 가격 인상으로 소비자 수준 인플레이션 압력 증가
• 전문가들은 Fed 정책과 소비자 행동에 미치는 영향을 분석

도입

이번 분석은 5월 개인소비지출(PCE) 지수 발표에 주목할 필요가 있습니다. PCE 지수는 연방준비제도(Fed)가 가장 중요하게 여기는 인플레이션 지표로, 최근 상승세가 Fed의 금리 정책 결정에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히 코어 PCE가 2023년 이후 최고치를 기록하며, 소비자 물가 상승 압력이 지속되고 있음을 시사합니다.

본문 1: 인플레이션 상승의 원인과 영향

5월 PCE 지수가 전월 대비 0.4% 증가하며 연간 4.1% 상승한 것은, 에너지 가격과 식품 가격이 제외된 코어 PCE도 월 0.3%, 연 3.4% 상승한 것으로 미루어 볼 때, 기본적인 인플레이션 압력이 여전히 강함을 보여줍니다. 애플의 제품 가격 인상은 기술 제품 가격 상승 추세를 반영하며, 이는 소비자 물가 상승 압력을 가중시키는 요인으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 특히 반도체 가격 상승이 인플레이션에 기여한 점도 주목할 필요가 있습니다.

본문 2: Fed 정책과 소비자 행동의 변화

Fed는 PCE 지수를 가장 중요하게 여기는 만큼, 이번 데이터가 금리 정책 결정에 영향을 미칠 가능성 있습니다. 특히 코어 PCE가 2023년 이후 최고치를 기록하며, 인플레이션 압력이 지속되고 있음을 시사하는 점에서, Fed가 추가 금리 인상을 고려할 수 있는 상황입니다. 소비자 측면에서도 물가 상승 압력이 지속될 경우, 소비 행태에 변화를 가져올 수 있습니다. 특히 중간 선거가 있는 해인 만큼, 소비자 물가 상승이 정치적으로도 중요한 이슈로 부상할 수 있습니다.

본문 3: 장기 전망과 리스크

장기적으로는 인플레이션 압력이 지속될 경우, 기업의 원가 상승 압력이 가중될 수 있습니다. 특히 기술 제품 가격 인상이 지속될 경우, 소비자 수요에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 또한, Fed의 금리 정책 변화가 경제 성장에 미치는 영향도 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 특히 AI와 같은 새로운 기술 분야의 성장과 인플레이션 압력의 균형을 맞추는 것이 중요할 것입니다.

결론

이번 5월 PCE 지수 발표는 인플레이션 압력이 여전히 강함을 보여주며, Fed의 금리 정책 결정과 소비자 행동에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 중요한 지표입니다. 특히 코어 PCE가 2023년 이후 최고치를 기록한 점에서, 인플레이션 압력이 지속되고 있음을 시사하며, 향후 Fed의 정책 변화와 경제 성장에 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 또한, 기술 제품 가격 인상이 소비자 물가 상승 압력을 가중시키는 점도 주목할 필요가 있습니다.

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원문 링크: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/may-pce-inflation-ticks-highest-135200649.html?.tsrc=rss

May PCE: Inflation ticks up to highest level since 2023

May's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — saw inflation rise 0.4% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually, marking the highest level since 2023.

Morning Brief Host Julie Hyman is joined by Yahoo Finance Tech Editor Dan Howley and Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist Cory Johnson to further examine rising price trends.

And this topic obviously leads right into inflation because memory chip prices are one of the reasons that we've seen inflation on the consumer level. Um Apple this morning raising its price. We knew that Apple was going to raise its prices, but if you log on to that, if you go to buy an Apple product today, the price will be higher than it was yesterday.

A scoop from Mark German at Bloomberg.

Yeah, well again yeah and now it's actually happening, right? Um that said the PCE data this morning and this is lagging data. It's for May. Um but this is the number that the Fed tends to pay the most attention to, was a little bit better than estimated, a little bit milder than estimated. So headline inflation, barely. Headline inflation up four tenths of 1%, a 10th of a percent better than estimated. So that yes, that definitely qualifies as barely. Um and if you look at the core number, it was up 0.3%. That was in line with estimates. So the core is really what matters.

I don't I see I disagree with that because I think particularly in a year where midterms are happening, core's not what matters. What people experience matters.

Okay, what what matters to the Fed? That's my let me let me qualify that.

But I'm not sure that's going to be the case as much going forward because the the impact of oil prices on the American consumer, it's it's it's bifurcated, right? This fantastic GDP number that this implies is well above 5% growth, a lot of that driven by AI, a lot of that driven by price increases at Nvidia and Micron wonderfully or strangely. But the benefit to our society of a booming GDP and rising inflation is to rich people. It's the people with assets. People without assets who are who are looking at the gas pump are not uh thrilled about the 0.1% beat of uh of of the uh core inflation rate. What they're looking at

They're looking at their gas price. the gas prices are coming down now.

A little bit. I think that that's going to be much slower than people hope. What we've seen is the damage to the infrastructure and the lag time of getting oil from the Middle East means this is going to go on well through the summer and into the fall. And um we also know that the way inflation works is once companies can raise prices, they keep them up. Even when it comes to things as volatile as food and energy. And so, um whether you're shopping at at Wegman's or Whole Foods or you're buying your gasoline, those are the costs that matter to consumers. and I think that that's going to have an effect on the spending of the of the people not as wealthy as as the people who are talking about 0.1%.

Well, and you know the you know the thing that's that's been one of the stickiest things in core PCE, financial services. Yeah. That's the thing that that is a contributor here that we don't see feed as much into other types of inflation, other reads of inflation and that's one of the things that um that has been just in there that keeps that keeps going up. So, you know, I've talked about this a lot on the show that that even though in the past Kevin Warsh has has posited that AI will be a boom for productivity and will bring inflation down, the rate of inflation down. We're not there.

Micron's results will tell you the opposite.

Right. It's not happening yet. Maybe that will happen eventually, very eventually. And it's clear right now

Sure. The sun will burn out too eventually. So you know, just throwing that out there.

It may be a matter of when we're living our life.

And the Fed might be hiking, not cutting. And the Fed might be hiking, not cutting with these kinds of inflation numbers.

Yeah, well, we'll see, we'll see what happens on that front. I think we need to get a a few more a few more reads and obviously we have more meetings to go before uh we see if there ends up being a a hike there.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/may-pce-inflation-ticks-highest-135200649.html?.tsrc=rss