미국 상원, 이란 전쟁권 한정 결의안 가결...트럼프 행정부 압박 강화
US Senate approves Iran war powers resolution: What that means for Trump - Al Jazeera
미국-이란 간 긴장 관계로 인한 지opolitical 불확실성은 변동성을 야기할 수 있으나, 현재로서는 명확한 방향성이 보이지 않습니다.
핵심 요약
미국 상원은 50대 48로 이란 전쟁권 한정 결의안을 통과시켰으며, 4명의 공화당 상원 의원들이 당을 이탈해 표결에 참여했습니다.
핵심요약
- 상원은 50대 48로 이란 전쟁권 한정 결의안을 통과시켰습니다.
- 하원에서도 215대 208로 동일한 결의안이 통과되었습니다.
- 4명의 공화당 상원 의원들이 당을 이탈해 표결에 참여했습니다.
- 이란 전쟁이 가치가 있었다고 생각하는 응답자는 24%에 불과했습니다.
도입
이번 상원의 이란 전쟁권 한정 결의안 통과는 트럼프 행정부의 외교 정책에 대한 의회와의 갈등을 심화시킬 가능성이 있습니다. 특히, 이란과의 군사적 대립이 미국 경제와 글로벌 시장 안정성에 미치는 영향을 고려할 때, 투자자들은 주의 깊게 모니트링해야 합니다.
본문 1: 의회와 행정부의 갈등 심화
상원의 결의안 통과는 트럼프 행정부의 외교 정책에 대한 의회의 통제력을 강화하는 중요한 계기입니다. 특히, 4명의 공화당 상원 의원들이 당을 이탈해 표결에 참여한 점은 트럼프 행정부의 정책에 대한 내부 반발이 커지고 있음을 보여줍니다. 이는 향후 행정부의 외교 정책 수립 과정에서 의회와의 협력이 더욱 중요해질 것으로 예상됩니다. 또한, 이란과의 군사적 대립이 장기화될 경우, 미국 경제에 미치는 부정적인 영향이 커질 가능성이 있습니다.
본문 2: 시장 안정성에 미치는 영향
이란과의 군사적 대립이 장기화될 경우, 글로벌 시장 안정성에 미치는 영향이 커질 가능성이 있습니다. 특히, 에너지 시장에서의 변동성이 증가할 경우, 원유 가격 상승으로 인한 인플레이션 압력이 커질 수 있습니다. 이는 미국 경제뿐만 아니라 글로벌 경제에도 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 따라서, 투자자들은 에너지 시장과 인플레이션 지표를 주의 깊게 모니트링해야 합니다.
결론
이번 상원의 결의안 통과는 트럼프 행정부의 외교 정책에 대한 의회와의 갈등을 심화시킬 가능성이 있습니다. 또한, 이란과의 군사적 대립이 장기화될 경우, 미국 경제와 글로벌 시장 안정성에 미치는 부정적인 영향이 커질 수 있습니다. 따라서, 투자자들은 의회와 행정부의 동향, 에너지 시장, 인플레이션 지표 등을 주의 깊게 모니트링해야 합니다. 향후, 이란과의 군사적 대립이 어떻게 전개될지, 그리고 이를 어떻게 관리할지에 대한 전략이 중요해질 전망입니다.
Original Article
US Senate approves Iran war powers resolution: What that means for Trump - Al Jazeera
US Senate votes to pause Iran war in rare rebuke to Trump
The United States Senate has voted in favour of invoking its war powers to force President Donald Trump to halt his military campaign against Iran or seek congressional approval before any further action is taken.
Here is a closer look at Tuesday’s vote – the 10th attempt Congress has made to rein in the US-Israel war on Iran – and what this means for the US government.
A similar measure had already been approved in the House of Representatives on June 3 by a vote of 215 to 208, and on Tuesday, the Senate passed it in a 50-48 vote. Trump’s Republican Party has slim majorities in both chambers.
Speaking on the Senate floor before the vote, top Democrat Chuck Schumer advocated for the war powers resolution as he criticised Trump’s military campaign against Iran.
“For years, Trump promised to put maximum pressure on Iran, but he ended up delivering maximum confusion, maximum chaos, maximum cost to the American people with his disastrous war,” Schumer said.
“Time after time, the vast majority of Senate Republicans sided with Trump and his war instead of the American people. The American people have paid the price for Trump’s historic blunder in Iran. It’ll go down in the history books as one of the worst foreign policy forays America has ever made.”
The war against Iran has proved highly unpopular in the US. A poll released on Tuesday by the news agency Reuters and the research firm Ipsos found that 24 percent of respondents felt the war had been worth the cost.
The Senate passed its first war powers resolution against the Iran conflict on May 20, but that effort was a procedural move only and did not progress.
Four Republican senators crossed party lines to vote for the resolution, and all but one of the chamber’s Democrats also voted in favour.
Tuesday’s breakaway Republicans were Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Rand Paul of Kentucky. A further two Republicans did not vote: Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania.
The lone Democrat to vote against the measure was Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman.
The war powers resolution “directs the President to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
Only if “explicitly authorised by a declaration of war or a specific congressional authorisation” would Trump be allowed to use further military force against Iran, it says.
The resolution, however, does allow for a limited military presence to remain in the Middle East to prevent any “imminent attack” against the US or its allies.
The vote reflects growing unease even among some of Trump’s Republican supporters about the unpopular conflict, which began with US-Israeli air strikes on Tehran on February 28.
This is the first time both chambers of Congress have passed a resolution directing a president to remove US armed forces from a warzone under the War Powers Act although it was not immediately clear how the votes might affect the conflict.
Technically, the Trump administration should now seek explicit congressional approval for further strikes on Iran. However, previous administrations have found routes around this by securing more limited authorisations for the use of military force (AUMFs) instead.
For example, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in 2001 , Congress passed an AUMF that gave then-President George W Bush broad powers to conduct what would become the global “war on terror”.
And one year later, it passed another AUMF, allowing the use of the military against the government of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, which became the basis of the 2003 invasion.
The two authorisations remain in place, and presidents continue to rely on them to carry out strikes without first seeking congressional approval. The assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 in Baghdad was authorised by Trump under the 2003 AUMF.
In addition, a resolution does not have the force of law. Experts said, therefore, that while the Senate vote is viewed as a rebuke to Trump, it is largely symbolic.
Before the vote on Tuesday, some Republican senators had warned that the war powers resolution would weaken Trump’s standing in the Switzerland negotiations.
“If this passes, the Iranians are going to simply stand up and walk away from negotiations,” Senator James Risch of Idaho told the Senate on Tuesday.
“They’re going to say: This thing’s over. The Congress has told the president of the United States, ‘Leave us alone. We can do whatever we want to do,’ and they will walk away.”