핵심요약

• 미국은 이란에 대한 '단일한 최대 재정적 공세(single greatest financial offensive)'를 언급하며 2차 제재를 위협하고 있습니다.
• 미국은 이란과 거래하는 국가에 대한 제재를 통해 압박을 가하고 있습니다.
• 중국은 이란 석유 수입에 있어 주요 수입국이며, 미국 제재에 대해 정부 법령을 동원하여 효과를 무력화하려는 시도를 했습니다.
• 이란의 석유 선적은 미국의 해상 봉쇄로 인해 거의 중단되었습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미국의 대이란 제재가 인도, 중국, 러시아와 같은 주요 국가들의 경제적 대응 신뢰도에 달려 있음을 지적합니다. 이는 단순한 양자 관계를 넘어 글로벌 공급망과 국제 제재의 실효성에 대한 근본적인 질문을 던집니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크가 향후 글로벌 에너지 및 무역 환경에 미칠 파급 효과를 면밀히 분석해야 합니다.

본문 1: 제재의 메커니즘과 시험대

미국이 이란에 대해 '단일한 최대 재정적 공세'를 언급하며 2차 제재를 위협하는 것은 제재의 실효성을 시험하는 행위입니다. 이러한 제재는 단순히 이란에 대한 경제적 압박을 넘어, 제재 대상국과 거래하는 제3국들에게도 직접적인 경제적 선택을 강요합니다. 특히, UAE가 이란과의 모든 무역을 중단한 조치는 미국과 UAE 간의 연계된 움직임으로 해석되며, 이는 제재가 국제적 협력 체계 내에서 어떻게 작동하는지를 보여줍니다. 따라서 제재의 성공 여부는 해당 국가들이 미국의 경제적 보복을 실제로 받아들일지에 달려 있습니다.

본문 2: 주요국의 대응과 전략

미국의 제재에 직면한 주요 국가들, 특히 중국의 대응은 이 시험의 핵심입니다. 중국은 수십 년간 이란 석유의 주요 수입국이었기 때문에, 미국의 제재가 자국의 경제에 미치는 영향을 최소화하기 위해 적극적으로 대응했습니다. 중국은 미국 제재가 국제법에 근거하지 않는 일방적 조치라고 주장하며, 미국의 압박에 맞서 자국의 법적 방어 수단을 동원했습니다. 이는 제재의 정당성과 국제적 합법성에 대한 이견을 드러내며, 제재가 국제 규범을 초월하여 작동할 수 있는지에 대한 논쟁을 심화시킵니다. 이러한 대응은 제재가 단순한 경제적 도구가 아니라 지정학적 힘의 균형을 재편하는 수단으로 작용함을 시사합니다.

본문 3: 공급망과 장기적 전망

이란의 석유 선적이 미국의 해상 봉쇄로 인해 거의 중단된 상황은 제재가 실제 물리적 흐름에 미치는 영향을 명확히 보여줍니다. 이는 에너지 공급망의 취약성과 지정학적 통제가 얼마나 쉽게 현실화될 수 있는지를 보여줍니다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 이러한 제재는 글로벌 에너지 시장의 변동성을 확대하고, 주요 국가들이 자국의 경제적 이익과 미국의 외교적 목표 사이에서 균형점을 찾아야 하는 복잡한 상황을 야기합니다. 향후 글로벌 무역 환경은 이러한 제재의 효과와 국제 사회의 연대 수준에 따라 예측 불가능한 변동성을 보일 가능성이 높습니다.

결론

미국의 대이란 제재는 단순히 이란에 대한 경제적 압박을 넘어, 국제 사회 내에서 경제적 위협의 신뢰도와 국제법적 정당성을 시험하는 지정학적 시험대입니다. 향후 이 시험의 결과는 글로벌 공급망의 안정성과 주요 국가들의 외교적 전략에 중대한 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 제재가 장기적인 글로벌 경제 구조에 미치는 파급 효과를 지속적으로 관찰할 필요가 있습니다. 특히, 제재의 실효성과 국제 협력의 변화에 주목해야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxPak82UEwxTDF0OGtaQXNfNlBLbGhQSUxOSGhqOWJoczRoTUh6YUE2Tkd2dkZlYllib1RtdGVqblNzRGdSU1BXQWxjSXRjbDY2R3BwN2RKZ3AyZG1KSVUwOC1hTTU3OG00LTFlV0pUaWhrenFOcFc5cm8yR1pKQl82ektsRkNQMnZnMXRlRDNNZHVUY29BNEZKZW1pWUtpR1RnM01VbUVFcw?oc=5

Iran vows to retaliate against countries that cooperate with fresh US sanctions - The Guardian

Test of US rhetoric will rest on whether nations such as India, China and Russia view economic threats as credible

Tehran has vowed to retaliate against any country that cooperates with the US attempt to impose fresh sanctions against Iran in what the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has billed as “the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary”.

In advance of the US announcement, the United Arab Emirates, Iran’s single biggest trading partner in the Middle East, announced it was ending all trade with Iran , a move Tehran believes was coordinated between Washington and the UAE.

The US has said it will impose sanctions on any country or entity trading with Iran – what are known as secondary sanctions.

The test of the US rhetoric is likely to rest on whether countries such as India, China and Russia believe continued trade with Iran would lead to credible US reprisals against their economies. China has for decades been the main importer of Iranian oil.

In May, the US threatened sanctions against Chinese refiners and the banks funding them, but the Chinese commerce department directed Chinese firms to ignore US warnings over Iranian oil imports, saying the threats were illegitimate and deploying for the first time a government statute designed to render US sanctions ineffective in Chinese jurisdictions.

The US had imposed sanctions on Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co in April but Washington largely backed off as Donald Trump realised he was risking a wider trade and tariff war with China that the US was likely to lose.

This time the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, again said China opposed unilateral sanctions that lacked basis in international law and China believed that military means, sanctions and pressure tactics were not the solution.

However, unlike in May, Iran’s oil shipments to Asia have already all but ended due to the effectiveness of a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, driving the cost of those cargoes to the highest levels in years. Last week, Iran’s central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, admitted his country’s crude exports had “virtually stopped” due to the US blockade.

The White House believes the Iranian economy is as a result once again on the brink of collapse due to hyperinflation and lack of foreign exchange income caused by the US blockade of oil exports. The rial was trading at 1.992 million per dollar on the unregulated market on Monday , down 4.5% since the US president announced a “crushing economic operation” against Tehran last week.

“Iran is completely collapsing!!!” Trump posted on social media in capital letters on Monday.

But Iran has been under some kind of US economic maximum pressure campaign for more than 20 years and so far survived.

Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said Tehran would respond with an “earthquake-like” retaliation if Washington proceeded with the proposed measures. He also warned Iran’s Gulf neighbours against joining the US sanctions campaign.

“If the countries surrounding Iran join the Americans in their economic war, not a drop of oil will leave the Persian Gulf and the strait of Hormuz,” Rezaei said, adding that Iran would also target other oil export routes from the Gulf.

Shipping through the strait remained severely disrupted over the weekend, putting further pressure on global energy markets.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, dismissed the expected sanctions as a sign of US desperation, arguing that the measures would fail to defeat Tehran. He said the US had shifted from military operations to what he described as “the same old plans”.

Reza Nasri, an international lawyer with links to the Iranian foreign ministry, said: “The announcement is not a measure against Iran. It is a claim of jurisdiction over the world, and every sovereign state on Earth is its real addressee. Iran is merely the occasion. The demand that no country allow its own banks, businesses, airports or ship registries to engage in lawful trade with another country is aimed at everyone else. Sovereignty itself is the target.”

Esmail Baghaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, said: “Repeating methods that have previously proven to fail will not produce any different results, except that it shows the extent to which America is hostile and spiteful towards each and every Iranian, because it knows very well that the effects of these sanctions will affect ordinary Iranian citizens.”

He added: “Obliging or intimidating other countries to stop or limit their trade relations with another country means violating the most important foundation of international relations and the most fundamental pillar of the United Nations charter, which is respect for the national sovereignty of countries.”

Hassan Ahmadian, a professor of west Asian studies at the University of Tehran, said: “There isn’t a single new sanction. Everything in Iran has been under primary and secondary sanctions since 2018. Since these sanctions failed to achieve the goals the US and Israel wanted, both sides turned to military action. The big fanfare about an ‘economic war’ is really just a public admission of a major step backward. After failing militarily, Washington is clearly stepping back to square one – the economy.”

He said Iran had been signalling in recent weeks that US economic warfare was no longer an acceptable option for Tehran and it would prefer going to war rather than standing idly by in the face of the US implementing the blockade. He said this involved “Iranian calculations related to military capabilities, the American domestic situation, and the Iranian domestic situation”.

Last Thursday Bessent claimed in an interview with CNBC that “the US will lead the Islamic Republic of Iran to collapse with the toughest sanctions in history”.

The Treasury secretary claimed “the US government is asking its allies and the rest of the world to stop trading with Iran”. He added that the US “will use all its power against anyone who does not comply with this demand”.

“Either the countries are with us or against us,” Bessent said. “It is time for our allies and the rest of the world to decide, and we will destroy the economy of this regime.” Writing in the Financial Times on Sunday, he said: “Total financial isolation can obviate the need for American force while enlarging the sphere of freedom for our allies. Those who sever Iran’s remaining financial and commercial connectivity will reinvigorate their own. They will deepen their access to global capital, reinforce confidence in their markets and attain the standing they seek in the world economy.”

But China and Russia have so far shown no interest in succumbing to US pressure.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxPak82UEwxTDF0OGtaQXNfNlBLbGhQSUxOSGhqOWJoczRoTUh6YUE2Tkd2dkZlYllib1RtdGVqblNzRGdSU1BXQWxjSXRjbDY2R3BwN2RKZ3AyZG1KSVUwOC1hTTU3OG00LTFlV0pUaWhrenFOcFc5cm8yR1pKQl82ektsRkNQMnZnMXRlRDNNZHVUY29BNEZKZW1pWUtpR1RnM01VbUVFcw?oc=5