이란의 위협에도 호르무즈 해협 새 항로 이용…유가 73달러 아래
Oil tankers use new route through Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian threats - BNN Bloomberg
호르무즈 해협의 새로운 항로를 통해 유조선이 이동하며 이란의 위협에도 불구하고 새로운 경로를 이용하고 있지만, 유가 하락과 함께 전전 수준으로 회복되지 않아 중립적인 입장을 취하고 있습니다.
핵심 요약
이란의 위협에도 호르무즈 해협 새 항로 이용되며 유가는 73달러 미만으로 떨어졌다.
핵심요약
- 4개 탱커가 새로운 호르무즈 해협 경로를 이용
- 유가가 일시적으로 73달러 미만으로 떨어짐
- 해협 교통량은 증가하지만 전시 수준보다 낮음
- 미국과 이란은 60일 동안 협상 예정
- 레바논에서 이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간 전투 재발
도입
이번 기사는 호르무즈 해협의 새로운 항로 이용과 유가 변동성이 투자자들에게 중요한 정보를 제공합니다. 특히 이란과의 협상과 중동 지역 불안정이 글로벌 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 도움이 됩니다.
본문 1: 새로운 항로의 시장 영향
4개 탱커가 새로운 호르무즈 해협 경로를 이용하면서 시장 불안정이 일시적으로 완화되었습니다. 특히 유가가 73달러 미만으로 떨어지면서 시장 참여자들이 상황을 개선되고 있다고 판단한 것으로 보입니다. 이는 새로운 항로가 에너지 공급망에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있음을 시사합니다. 그러나 이란의 위협이 지속되는 한, 장기적인 안정성은 여전히 불확실합니다.
본문 2: 중동 지역 불안정성의 리스크
레바논에서 이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간 전투가 재발하면서 중동 지역 불안정성이 다시 부상했습니다. 이는 새로운 항로의 안전성에도 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 에너지 공급망에 추가적인 리스크를 초래할 가능성을 제기합니다. 특히 이스라엘의 공습이 계속되면, 지역 불안정이 더 악화될 수 있습니다. 이는 투자자들에게 중동 지역 안정성에 대한 지속적인 감시를 요구합니다.
본문 3: 미국과 이란의 협상 전망
미국과 이란은 60일 동안 협상을 진행할 예정입니다. 그러나 양측의 공공연한 협상과 위협 교환이 협상의 성공 가능성을 불확실하게 만듭니다. 특히 이란의 핵 우라늄 재고와 선박 통행 문제 등이 주요 논쟁점이 될 전망입니다. 이는 에너지 시장에 장기적인 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 투자자들은 협상의 진행 상황과 결과를 주시해야 합니다.
결론
새로운 호르무즈 해협 경로의 이용과 유가 변동성은 에너지 시장에 긍정적인 신호로 해석될 수 있습니다. 그러나 중동 지역 불안정성과 미국과 이란의 협상 결과가 에너지 공급망에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링하는 것이 중요합니다. 특히 레바논의 불안정이 지속되면, 시장 불안정이 다시 부활할 가능성도 있습니다.
Original Article
Oil tankers use new route through Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian threats - BNN Bloomberg
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Several tankers made their way out of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday using a new route promoted by a UN maritime agency. Iran has threatened vessels using the path, which runs along the coast of Oman.
The opening of an alternative passage through the vital waterway would relieve pressure on the world economy and remove Iran’s main source of leverage in ongoing talks about the interim deal signed last week with the United States.
Traffic through the strait has increased but is still well below prewar levels. Oil on Thursday briefly dipped below its last prewar price of just under US$73 per barrel, a sign that the market believes the situation is improving.
The two sides are still debating terms of the deal -- from getting ships through the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf to the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Under the memorandum of understanding, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day period to iron out the details. As talks are held behind closed doors, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders have seemed to negotiate in public, trading threats and claiming concessions the other side denies.
The flare-up of fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants has meanwhile threatened the wider truce. Israel’s first airstrike on Lebanon since a ceasefire took effect over the weekend killed two people on Wednesday, according to Lebanon’s state-news agency.
The oil tankers, led by the Stoic Warrior vessel, sailed along the coast of the United Arab Emirates and then Oman early Thursday, passing by Oman’s Musandam Peninsula fairly close to the shore. The route was laid out by Oman and the International Maritime Organization, a UN agency.
North of the route is the Traffic Separation Scheme corridor, in the centre of the strait, where ships had moved through freely before the war, transporting about a fifth of all the world’s oil and natural gas.
Iran said it mined that passage after the U.S. and Israel attacked it on Feb. 28, and at least one mine has been sighted there.
Though some ships had been getting out of the strait, with U.S. military support, the UN agency’s effort is the latest to free trapped vessels. The shipping company Maersk said its container ship, the Maersk Baltimore, and another chartered vessel had also made it out of the strait on Thursday.
Last week, 125 vessels crossed the strait, up from 33 the week before, according to marine data and analysis firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
According to S&P Global, Wednesday saw 78 transits, the most since the war began. Among the vessels were 10 crude oil tankers, including five outbound large carriers that can carry up to 2 million barrels of oil.
Still, that daily total is below the average of 130 or more from before the war.
“Opportunistic operators -- and there are many of them -- emboldened by the lower transit risk, or at least the perceived lower transit risk, have begun chasing the backlog of trapped cargoes that built up during the conflict,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at Lloyd’s List.
The naval arm of the Revolutionary Guard, apparently reacting to the new shipping route and increased traffic, issued a warning Thursday, carried by Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency.
It said the new route was established “without notice or coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” calling it “unacceptable and completely dangerous.”
“The only authorized route for passing through the Strait of Hormuz is the one declared by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the Iranian force said. “Vessel traffic outside these routes is extremely dangerous and prohibited.”
“Violators will be dealt with,” it added, without elaborating.
There were no immediate reports of any incidents in the strait. On Wednesday, however, the Guard threatened one tanker over the radio, with a soldier warning “you are in range of my missiles and maybe (I) fire on you,” according to the private security firm Ambrey.
On a Middle East trip, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with foreign ministers from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council to assure them that their interests would be protected in any agreement with Iran.
Those countries, including major energy producers reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for exports, came under attack by Iran after the start of the war.
“There is no part in this deal that’s undertaken that in any way undermines the security, the stability or the prosperity of any of our partners in the Gulf region,” Rubio said at the meeting in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.
He later told journalists the U.S. and Gulf allies would ensure there would be no fees charged on ships moving through the strait.
He also criticized Iran’s hard-liners for going “on their official media and making all kinds of pronouncements” that he described as not true.
He said the U.S. wanted to make sure the Oman route continued for ships to transit the strait. “If that stops, then we’re going to have a problem,” Rubio said.