핵심 요약

1. 엔비디아(NVDA)는 2월 25일(수) 4분기 실적 발표를 앞두고 있으며, 시장은 단순 컨센서스 부합이 아닌 예상치 상회(beat)와 가이던스 유지·상향을 요구하고 있습니다.
2. 최근 AI 우려로 촉발된 소프트웨어 매도 이후, 이번 실적은 하드웨어 강세가 소프트웨어에 부담인지, 혹은 업종 전반의 체력 회복 신호인지를 가르는 검증 이벤트로 해석됩니다.
3. 월마트의 연간 CAPEX 260억달러(전년 대비 +30억달러), JP모건의 3~6개월 관찰 시계 제시, 세일즈포스 목표주가 하향(씨티·UBS) 등은 AI 투자 확산과 밸류에이션 재평가가 동시에 진행 중임을 보여줍니다.

도입

이번 엔비디아 실적은 단순한 한 기업의 분기 성적표가 아니라, 미국 기술주 내 자금 흐름의 방향성을 점검하는 분기점입니다. 특히 이달 초 AI 관련 불안 심리로 소프트웨어 업종이 급격히 흔들린 직후라는 점에서, 시장의 관심은 숫자 자체보다도 "성장 서사가 훼손됐는가"에 집중됩니다. 엔비디아가 여전히 AI 인프라 수요의 중심축으로 기능하는지를 확인하는 순간이기 때문입니다.

야후파이낸스 인터뷰에서 드러난 핵심은 기대치의 높이입니다. 윈스럽 캐피털의 애덤 쿤스 CIO는 "지금은 기대치 충족만으로는 실패에 가깝다"는 취지로 언급하며, 주가의 추가 상방을 위해서는 실적 예상치 상회와 가이던스 방어가 필요하다고 봤습니다. 이는 AI 랠리의 1차 국면이 끝나고, 숫자와 실행력이 더 엄격히 평가되는 2~3차 국면으로 진입했다는 시장 인식을 반영합니다.

엔비디아 실적의 관전 포인트: 숫자보다 중요한 ‘서사 유지력’

실적 시즌에서 엔비디아의 의미는 통상적인 "좋은 분기"를 넘어섭니다. 이미 시장은 엔비디아가 강한 분기를 낼 가능성을 일정 부분 선반영하고 있으며, 따라서 관건은 얼마나 상회하느냐와 다음 분기·연간 가이던스의 톤입니다. 즉, 이번 발표의 본질은 과거 실적 확인이 아니라 미래 수요에 대한 경영진의 확신 강도입니다.

쿤스 CIO의 발언을 시장 언어로 번역하면 명확합니다. 현재 구간에서 엔비디아는 "실적 상회 + 가이던스 유지(최소)"가 기본값이고, 주가 재평가를 원하면 "가이던스 개선"이 요구된다는 뜻입니다. 이는 AI 관련주가 성장주 프리미엄을 유지하려면, 실적의 절대 수준뿐 아니라 성장 지속성을 숫자로 증명해야 한다는 압박이 커졌음을 보여줍니다.

왜 ‘기대치 충족’이 부족한가

최근 조정 국면에서 확인된 것은 밸류에이션의 민감도입니다. 고평가 논란이 커진 상태에서는 예상치 부합이 오히려 실망으로 읽히기 쉽습니다. 시장은 "예상보다 더 좋다"는 증거를 통해서만 멀티플을 방어하려고 하며, 엔비디아는 그 시험대의 정중앙에 서 있습니다.

소프트웨어 급락 이후: ‘AI 수혜의 재배분’이 시작됐나

인터뷰의 두 번째 축은 소프트웨어 업종입니다. 논점은 단순합니다. 엔비디아가 더 많은 칩을 판다는 신호가 나오면, 이는 AI 도입 속도가 빠르다는 의미이지만 동시에 소프트웨어 기업의 비용·경쟁 부담을 키울 수도 있습니다. 즉, 같은 AI 확산이라도 하드웨어에는 호재, 일부 소프트웨어에는 압박으로 작동할 수 있다는 해석입니다.

다만 시장이 일괄적으로 소프트웨어를 버리는 국면은 완화될 가능성도 제기됩니다. 인터뷰에서는 오라클 사례를 들어 시장이 무차별 투매만 하는 상태는 아니라는 점이 언급됐고, 올해가 전형적인 종목 선별장(stock picker’s market) 이 될 것이라는 진단이 나왔습니다. 실제로 알파벳(구글)처럼 수직계열화가 강한 기업은 상대적으로 방어력이 높고, 반대로 스토리 대비 실적 연결이 약한 기업은 변동성이 확대될 수 있습니다.

밸류에이션이 싸도 바로 오르지 않는 이유

BofA 차트를 근거로 "소프트웨어가 싸졌다"는 주장이 나왔지만, 시장 반응은 냉담하다는 지적도 등장했습니다. 가격이 낮아졌다는 사실만으로는 반등이 보장되지 않으며, AI를 활용한 실제 도입 가속(Adoption acceleration) 이 확인돼야 한다는 요구가 더 강합니다. 즉, 할인율보다 펀더멘털의 가시성이 우선인 장세입니다.

AI CAPEX의 확산: 엔비디아 밖에서 확인되는 수요 신호

이번 기사에서 중요한 대목은 월마트 사례입니다. 월마트는 연간 CAPEX가 260억달러, 전년 대비 30억달러 증가했다고 밝혔고, CFO는 이 중 AI 투자가 의미 있는 비중을 차지한다고 설명했습니다. 이는 AI 투자가 빅테크와 소프트웨어 기업 내부에만 머무르지 않고, 유통 같은 전통 업종의 운영 효율화 투자로 확산되고 있음을 시사합니다.

이 지점은 엔비디아의 실적 해석에도 직접 연결됩니다. 수요 기반이 특정 소수 고객군에만 의존하는지, 혹은 산업 전반으로 넓어지는지에 따라 밸류에이션의 지속 가능성이 달라지기 때문입니다. AI 인프라 투자가 "실험" 단계를 넘어 "운영 예산"으로 들어오고 있다면, 엔비디아를 포함한 공급망의 중기 가시성은 높아질 수 있습니다.

3~6개월 검증 구간

JP모건이 언급한 3~6개월 관찰 기간은 의미가 큽니다. 당장 한 분기 실적보다, 이후 기업들이 AI를 통해 매출 성장·비용 절감·고객 전환율 개선을 실제로 입증하는지가 다음 멀티플을 결정할 가능성이 큽니다. 세일즈포스의 실적 이벤트와 목표주가 하향(씨티, UBS) 사례는 그 검증이 이미 시작됐음을 보여줍니다.

결론

엔비디아 4분기 실적의 핵심은 "좋은 숫자" 자체가 아니라, AI 투자 사이클이 여전히 확장 국면인지 확인하는 데 있습니다. 시장은 현재 엔비디아에 대해 높은 기준을 적용하고 있으며, 예상치 상회와 가이던스의 질을 통해 성장 서사의 균열 여부를 판단하려고 합니다. 따라서 발표 직후 주가 반응은 헤드라인 수치보다도 가이던스 문구와 수요 코멘트에 더 민감할 가능성이 높습니다.

동시에 이번 이벤트는 소프트웨어 업종의 재평가에도 직접적인 영향을 줍니다. AI 수혜가 하드웨어에 집중될지, 소프트웨어로 확산될지는 기업별 실행력에 따라 갈릴 전망입니다. 결국 향후 3~6개월은 "AI를 말하는 기업"보다 "AI로 실적을 증명하는 기업"이 프리미엄을 가져가는 구간이 될 가능성이 큽니다. 투자자 입장에서는 업종 베팅보다, 가이던스 신뢰도와 도입 성과를 기준으로 한 종목 선별이 성과를 좌우할 것으로 판단됩니다.

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원문 링크: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ai-chipmaker-nvidia-post-q4-110013996.html?.tsrc=rss

AI chipmaker Nvidia to post Q4 earnings this week: What to expect

Nvidia ( NVDA ) is scheduled to release its fourth quarter earnings results on Wednesday, February 25. But will it be all sunshine and superconductors for the AI chipmaker this week as the broader tech sector continues to recover from the software sell-off sparked by AI fears earlier in the month?

Winthrop Capital CIO Adam Coons joins Yahoo Finance Senior Reporters Brooke DiPalma and Ines Ferré in commenting on what Wall Street will be looking for in Nvidia's earnings results and whether investors expect software stocks to bounce back.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Opening Bid .

Adam, good to see you. Let me start with you here on Nvidia. Set the scene for us. What do you want to see from Nvidia, especially if one is bullish this market?

Yeah, I mean, it definitely right now, uh meeting expectations, uh unfortunately is a fail. So I think we're going to have to see something that uh beats expectations, kind of uh sets the story straight that hey, uh this is not a deteriorating uh narrative right now and that there is still growth and and that's obviously the case. We do see tremendous earnings growth across the entire industry and expect that to come out in Nvidia. So I think we, you know, for the stock uh to go up, it's going to have to be a steady beat with with at least, you know, maintaining uh the overall guidance and hopefully getting uh some improvement in guidance. I think that's really what the market needs right now.

Adam, I if if Nvidia reports a a strong quarter, and I expect they will, and they come out and offer reasonable reasonably strong guidance, which I think they will, is that bad for the software space? Because I the way I would read it in the moments after that report is, uh Nvidia's selling more chips than people expected. AI's moving at a faster pace, bad news for software stocks.

Could be. I think, you know, we've seen this story before where investors are just trying to digest a story. And I think the the markets are very healthy right now. I think Oracle, uh in this example, shows just how healthy markets are that they're not just, you know, dumping into every stock. Um so I think that, you know, Nvidia is just one player now. They're obviously the the the main highlight from the hardware side. Uh but, you know, when it comes to the software, it's going to definitely be a stock picker's market this year. Uh you're going to have to pick the right ones. You're going to have to really dig in deep. Uh we still like Google just because they're so vertically integrated. uh it kind of is a safety net in the in the space. Uh but you you're going to see some big winners and some big losers this year.

And as I put out uh, I put out four charts on my X account uh this morning from B of A, calling attention to how cheap software stocks were. and the market could care less if these stocks are cheap. The market says these stocks could probably get cheaper. What say you?

Yeah, look, um there are some strategists that are saying that they could get cheaper, certainly. The valuations have come down. But there's also the sense that we may be seeing uh some type of bottoming, that that that this is very much overblown, that the s- software sell off is overblown. And what the Street wants to see is that software companies are utilizing AI in order to accelerate adoption. I mean, you spoke to Figma's CFO yesterday, and this is what they were basically telegraphing to the street. And with Salesforce is going to be reporting their earnings and they will want the street wants to see that. Uh I I will mention that we did see some um price target downgrades uh for Salesforce with uh City, also UBS, that was also lowering their price targets. But they want to see this acceleration uh of adoption by utilizing AI.

Brooke, true true story. Uh Walmart earnings crossed yesterday. I'm reading this, reading this, scroll down. They spent $26 billion in CAPEX last last year, up $3 billion year over year. My first thought was, this company's investing a lot in AI. I talked to John David Rainey, CFO of Walmart. He said, yep, a lot of a lot of investments in AI. What I'm trying to get to is, how could this Nvidia report be anything but really strong?

Yeah, I certainly think that it's interesting to hear that this broadening out of AI being mentioned in companies beyond just say the deck players and the software companies, but also how retailers are certainly playing into this. And I think what needs to happen within this report is not only Nvidia needs to point to a guidance that goes to show how exactly AI is playing into the future. We're hearing from many on the street that this is sort of now the phase. We're now in phase two, phase three of this AI arms race, exactly understanding how what we've been hearing those murmurs are now playing into everyday life. And I think that investors are really focusing in on that. And and just to go back on something that you said, right now, investors are sort of baking in the worst-case scenario, the the largest disruption that could possibly happen because of number one players, first first round players like Nvidia and the impact that it could have, the ripple effect. Once this sort of plays out, as Adam had mentioned, yes, we'll see the winners and the losers, but many on the street, including JP Morgan, sort of saying, give this the next three to six months to sort of see how this materializes and who exactly maybe those winners and losers will be.

Adam, let me get back to what you said on Google, that you like Google. Why do you like Google who is now, I mean the stock has been on a tremendous run. It's been deserved to given what they've come out here with Gemini. I mean the all parts of their business are rocking. And why Google over something like Oracle that has been just absolutely crushed?

Well, you know, Oracle I would argue is cheap for a reason. And uh, you know, the debt story around Oracle, uh, does give me some concern. It it's it's been growing even before this and now it's it's really expanding and it's levered to, you know, kind of what's obviously been thrown around as this kind of circular uh, nature of contracts and whatnot. And that's why we like Google. They're kind of immune from that because, like I said, they are the one entity that's vertically integrated. You know, they're doing their own chips, uh the software, and then they at the end of the day, they're also the user of it and that, you know, they're not just producing the AI, they're doing it so that they can improve a product that's been proven over the last two decades, where everyone else is trying to kind of reinvent themselves. Uh you know, you look at Meta and how they've gone back and forth with really who they want to be when they grow up. Google hasn't had to do that. They've just stayed the course and I think that's why this is a stock that's just steadily gone up and up and up because, you know, it's backed by real earnings, real revenue growth, really strong margins. So it's just hard to see a case uh in the entire kind of ecosystem here, uh where they kind of fall down. Obviously, if it gets too rich, that my story may change there, but right now it still is relatively inexpensive when you're talking about a tech stock that's growing at the pace that it is.

And Ines, if I had to put any red flag onto the field ahead of Nvidia earnings, it's a news I think the FT was reporting it this morning. So Nvidia was going to invest $100 billion in in Open AI. Now it is down to $30 billion. So, is it that Jensen is seeing something negative on the horizon with AI? Is that the read through here or maybe I'm just losing my mind because it's been a long week.

This could be true. I could be losing my mind.

Look, it it was very much in the news uh when that uh $100 billion letter of intention uh had come out and that and then it was sort of it was said that, okay, it's not going to be 100 billion, now it's 30 billion. So that is something that the street has been paying attention to because why would they not invest that $100 billion? That would be something that he may be asked during the earnings call. Uh I would also say that anything that has to do with rising competition. I mean, you were just talking about uh Google and their custom chips as well. So, uh if there's any comments about that, I think that this will be something that the street is going to be paying attention to. Their relationship to OpenAI and any rising competition. And I also think that what they're also going to be wanting to see is anything that has to do with China.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ai-chipmaker-nvidia-post-q4-110013996.html?.tsrc=rss