이란, 레바논 분쟁으로 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄 선언...미국과의 협상 시작
US-Iran talks begin Sunday in Switzerland as Tehran closes the strait over Lebanon fighting - FOX13 Memphis
이란이 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄하겠다고 주장했으나, 미국은 여전히 유류가 이동하고 있다고 반박했습니다. 그러나 지opolitical 긴장이 악화될 가능성은 여전히 존재합니다.
핵심 요약
이란이 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄 선언; 55척의 선박과 1700만 배럴 석유가 통과 중.
핵심요약
- 이란이 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄 선언; 55척의 선박과 1700만 배럴의 석유가 통과 중
- 미국, 해협 개방 유지 주장하며 이란의 선언 부인
- 이란-미국 협상 스위스에서 시작; 60일 내 핵 협정 체결 목표
도입
이란과 미국의 긴장 관계는 에너지 시장에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협의 폐쇄 선언은 석유 수출에 중요한 영향을 줄 수 있으며, 이는 글로벌 에너지 가격에 변동성을 초래할 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이란과 미국의 협상 결과에 주목해야 합니다.
본문 1: 에너지 시장 변동성 증가 전망
이란의 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄 선언은 글로벌 에너지 시장에 immediate한 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 55척의 선박과 1700만 배럴의 석유가 통과 중인 현황은 해협이 여전히 개방되어 있다는 미국의 주장과 대비됩니다. 이란의 선언이 실제로 해협의 통행을 차단할 경우, 석유 공급에 차질이 발생할 가능성이 높아집니다. 이는 석유 가격의 급등을 초래할 수 있으며, 에너지 관련 주식에 긍정적인 영향을 줄 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 협상 결과에 따른 시장 반응 분석
이란과 미국의 협상이 성공적으로 마무리될 경우, 핵 협정에 따른 제재 완화 가능성도 고려해야 합니다. 이는 이란의 경제 성장과 함께 에너지 시장의 안정화로 이어질 수 있습니다. 그러나 협상이 결렬될 경우, 추가적인 제재와 긴장이 고조될 가능성이 높아집니다. 이는 에너지 시장뿐만 아니라 글로벌 경제에도 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 협상 결과에 따라 포트폴리오를 조정할 필요가 있을 것입니다.
결론
이란과 미국의 협상 결과는 에너지 시장과 글로벌 경제에 중요한 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 호르무즈 해협의 현황과 협상 진행 상황은 지속적으로 모니터링해야 합니다. 향후 석유 가격 변동성과 에너지 관련 주식의 움직임에 주목해야 합니다.
Original Article
US-Iran talks begin Sunday in Switzerland as Tehran closes the strait over Lebanon fighting - FOX13 Memphis
TYRE, Lebanon (AP) — Iran on Saturday said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz because of Israel’s continued attacks in Lebanon and warned that while negotiators were going to Switzerland for talks with the United States on their interim agreement , not much likely will happen if the fighting doesn’t stop.
Key mediator Pakistan said technical-level talks will begin on Sunday in Burgenstock, Switzerland, with Qatari mediators also participating.
Iran’s joint military command said the strait was closed because of the U.S. “clear breach of its commitments” by failing to end the war . The interim deal is meant to stop fighting on all fronts.
Shortly after that, the state broadcaster said Iran’s negotiating team was leaving for Switzerland, a trip originally planned for Friday. State media said the team includes parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf , Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and central bank and oil officials, among others.
The U.S. disputed Iran's announcement on the strait. “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic continues to flow, and U.S. forces are monitoring the situation to ensure this remains the case,” said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command. The military said 55 merchant ships transited Saturday with more than 17 million barrels of oil.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Bagahei signaled that little might happen in talks until Iran feels the U.S. is living up to the deal.
Negotiations toward a final agreement will begin only once key commitments are upheld, Bagahei said. If they are not, “the memorandum of understanding as a whole will be jeopardized.”
In Washington, Vice President JD Vance confirmed that top U.S. negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were already in Switzerland and working through technical details of anticipated negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program . The interim deal gives negotiators 60 days to reach a nuclear agreement, but that can be extended.
Vance told Fox News that he expects to leave for Switzerland in "the next couple of days” but acknowledged that “it’s always a delicate coordination dance.”
As part of efforts to revive the direct talks, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Araghchi in Tehran earlier Saturday, according to officials in Islamabad who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
The global economy braced for more uncertainty. Ships began transiting after the interim U.S.-Iran agreement was signed earlier in the week, a milestone that left plenty of questions unanswered.
Following the signing, the U.S. lifted its blockade of Iran’s ports and is allowing Tehran to sell its oil freely. The deal also calls for Iran’s assets to be unfrozen at some point.
In Lebanon, an official with Hezbollah told The Associated Press that Iran has informed the militant group that Tehran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Israel announces publicly that it will comply with a “comprehensive ceasefire” in Lebanon and an end to military operations there. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
The official also said Hezbollah will commit to a ceasefire if Israel does. There was no immediate Israeli comment.
Earlier Saturday, Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed at least 16 people, including two children, hours after reports emerged of a ceasefire agreement there. Seven people remained trapped under the rubble after the strikes hit the southern city of Nabatiyeh and nearby villages, Lebanon’s National News Agency said.
The death toll in the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah has now surpassed 4,000, Lebanon’s health ministry later announced.
Mediators were scrambling to halt the fighting after a heavy exchange on Friday killed at least 47 people in Lebanon and four Israeli soldiers.
An Israeli military official, speaking anonymously in line with regulations, said Hezbollah fired more than 50 projectiles at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon overnight. Israel's army said it struck dozens of Hezbollah targets and militants in southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah command centers.
On Friday, the Israeli ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, said Israel “remains firmly committed to an immediate ceasefire” if Hezbollah honors the agreement and ceases hostilities.
Earlier Saturday, Hezbollah said it had committed to the ceasefire but blamed Israel for violating it several times Friday night and said it would repel attacks by Israeli troops.
A new round of U.S.-backed talks between the Lebanese government and Israel is expected to take place in Washington next week.
Hezbollah and Israel went to war two days after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, with Hezbollah firing rockets and drones at northern Israel and Israel seizing large swaths of southern Lebanon .
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are signatories to the deal between the U.S. and Iran, which calls for a halt to military operations in Lebanon and for the country's sovereignty to be respected.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep Israeli forces in southern Lebanon until any threat to Israel is eliminated. Hezbollah has refused to halt its attacks unless Israel commits to withdrawing from Lebanon, which Iran says is also a condition of the deal.
A strike on Barish village killed four members of a family: parents and two children. In Arab Salim village, a body was pulled from a destroyed house, and in Doueir and Kfar Rumman villages, drone strikes killed a person on a motorcycle and a Lebanese soldier. Nine people were killed in strikes in Qannarit, Sohmor and Shehour villages.
Smoke rose into the sky over southern Lebanon and Israeli jets flew low over the coastal city of Tyre. Residents told The Associated Press they were relieved that Tyre had been spared in recent days, but now they were reminded that the war is not over.
“Our entire lives would change if there’s a ceasefire,” said one resident, Hussein Khoshman.
Military spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said Israeli forces were operating in a “forward defense zone” and would continue doing so.
Some residents of northern Israel doubted the fighting would stop. “I don’t believe in a ceasefire because it doesn’t exist,” said Miriam Hod in Metula.