이란, UN 핵감사단 재입국 허용...미국은 석유 수출 금수 해제
Iran agrees to UN nuclear inspectors’ return as part of agreement with US - The Guardian
이란 핵 협상의 결과, 석유 수출 규제 완화로 유가 흐름이 개선될 수 있지만, 여전히 지opolitical 리스크가 남아 있어 장기적인 방향성은 불분명합니다.
핵심 요약
이란은 nearly 18시간의 협상 끝에 UN 핵감사단의 재입국을 허용하기로 합의했습니다.
핵심요약
- 18시간의 협상 끝에 이란과 미국이 합의에 도달
- UN 핵감사단의 재입국 허용과 석유 수출 금수 해제 합의
- 호르무즈 해협 재개항으로 4척의 LNG 탱커가 이동 시작
- 레바논 휴전 협상 메커니즘 구축
- 상세한 실행 계획 마련을 위해 기술 전문가들이 잔류
도입
이번 합의는 중동 지역 정세에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있는 중요한 사건입니다. 특히, 이란의 핵 프로그램에 대한 국제사회의 감시 강화와 미국과의 관계 개선 가능성은 에너지 시장에 미치는 파장을 고려할 필요가 있습니다. 또한, 호르무즈 해협의 재개항은 국제 석유 시장에 직접적인 영향을 줄 수 있습니다.
본문 1: 에너지 시장 영향
이번 합의로 이란의 석유 수출이 재개되면서 국제 유가에 변동성이 생길 가능성이 있습니다. 특히, 이란의 석유 수출이 전년 대비 78% 증가할 것으로 예상되는 만큼, 유가 하락 압력이 가해질 수 있습니다. 이는 OPEC+ 회원국들의 석유 수출량 조정에도 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 또한, 이란의 석유 수출 재개는 중동 지역 내 에너지 시장의 균형을 바꾸는 계기가 될 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 지정학적 리스크
이번 합의는 이란과 미국 간의 관계 개선을 의미하지만, 여전히 이스라엘과의 갈등이 지속될 수 있습니다. 특히, 이란의 핵 프로그램에 대한 국제사회의 감시 강화는 이스라엘의 반발을 불러일으킬 수 있습니다. 또한, 레바논 휴전 협상 메커니즘의 구축은 Hezbollah와의 갈등을 완화할 수 있지만, 여전히 불안정한 정세가 지속될 수 있습니다. 이는 중동 지역 내 투자 위험을 높일 수 있는 요소입니다.
결론
이번 합의는 중동 지역 정세와 에너지 시장에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있는 중요한 사건입니다. 특히, 이란의 석유 수출 재개와 UN 핵감사단의 재입국 허용은 국제 유가와 에너지 시장 균형에 변동성을 줄 수 있습니다. 또한, 레바논 휴전 협상 메커니즘의 구축은 중동 지역 내 갈등 완화에 기여할 수 있지만, 여전히 지정학적 리스크가 존재합니다. 향후 이란과 미국의 협상 진행 상황과 국제사회의 반응을 주시할 필요가 있습니다.
Original Article
Iran agrees to UN nuclear inspectors’ return as part of agreement with US - The Guardian
Other measures include Washington lifting sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports and reopening the strait of Hormuz
Middle East crisis live – latest updates
Iran has agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country as part of an agreement under which Washington will lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports and the strait of Hormuz will reopen, the US vice-president, JD Vance , has said.
Long-term independent monitoring of Iran’s nuclear programme, which it says is for energy purposes only, was in effect halted last summer after Israel and the US attacked the country. Tehran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in response to strikes on its nuclear facilities.
But Tehran, sensitive to domestic criticism, said it had made no new concessions on its nuclear programme, and the outcome of any negotiation would be subject to the supreme national security council, the body that brings together political and military decision makers inside Iran .
A “deconfliction” mechanism has also been set up involving Washington, Tehran and Beirut to try to bring about a working ceasefire in Lebanon, which Israel has continued to bomb and where the Iran-aligned militant group Hezbollah is based. A Lebanon ceasefire is one of Iran’s key demands.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and Vance hailed the progress made during nearly 18 hours of talks in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.
Technical experts from the two sides and mediators from Qatar and Pakistan are to stay behind at the Doha-owned Lake Lucerne resort to work on the detailed implementation of the plan, including working parties on Iran’s nuclear programme and the establishment of a high-level political committee to oversee the process intended to seal a comprehensive deal between the two sides in under two months.
Early signs on Monday suggested commercial oil tankers were starting to move through the strait of Hormuz. Four liquefied natural gas tankers controlled by Qatar headed into the Gulf and through the strait on Monday, while two supertankers, which can carry up to 4m barrels of crude oil, crossed into the Gulf heading for the Iraqi port of Basra.
The talks nearly broke down on Sunday when a stream of violent threats from Donald Trump infuriated the Iranian delegation.
Vance told a press conference: “What we told the Iranians yesterday is that when you guys engage in what us millennials might call trash talk, you can’t expect the president of the United States not to respond and not to correct the record.
“Yes there was a little bit of threatening and a little bit of whining but at the end of the day the talks continued and we made great progress.”
He hailed Tehran’s decision to let UN nuclear inspectors back into Iran for the first time since Israel attacked the country last year. “That is a major milestone for the American people, and the first step in permanently denuclearising or permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran,” he said.
In practice, lengthy talks lie ahead on the intrusiveness and scale of the IAEA inspectors’ mandate, including their access to Iran’s bombed nuclear sites.
In a development vital to unlocking progress, the US treasury is preparing to issue a 60-day waiver that will lift sanctions on Iran’s oil, petrochemicals and derivatives. Tehran said this meant its central bank would be able to sell oil to customers, principally China, and receive payments without the threat of repercussions.
Qatar and Iran also signed a memorandum about the release of Iranian assets frozen in Qatari bank accounts as a result of secondary US sanctions. Vance said the deal required Iran to spend its unfrozen assets on food such as soya produced by US farmers.
The economic measures may help lift some of the pressure on Iran’s exchange markets and gradually slow runaway inflation, the country’s biggest domestic concern at present.
The joint statement by the mediators focused on new implementation mechanisms to turn the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed last week into reality over the next 60 days – the timeline set out to reach a comprehensive agreement on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions on its economy.
Araghchi said in a statement that the first real test of the understandings would be the cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon , which has emerged as the biggest threat to the MoU between Washington and Tehran.
Explaining the thinking behind the deconfliction body on which neither Israel or Hezbollah will sit, Vance said: “Sometimes a junior guy fires a drone that didn’t have approval from the high command. Of course, Israel has to respond to that, but then sometimes we could have a more peaceful situation if Israel responds in the context of a conversation that is ongoing between Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel and other partners in the region.
“There has not been a mechanism to have those conversations.”
He said the US wanted Israel’s security and Lebanon’s sovereignty to be protected.
Iran had said over the weekend that it had reinstated its blockade of the strait of Hormuz in protest at the continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon , and that Trump was allowing Israel to breach the MoU, which calls for a ceasefire on all fronts. Israel killed more than 30 people in attacks in central and southern Lebanon on Saturday.
The US military denied the strait had been closed again, but Trump responded strongly on Sunday. “You close it and you won’t have a country,” he wrote on social media. “You won’t even make it back to your fucking country,” he added in a threat to the Iranian negotiators.
Iran had sought to hold back the nuclear element of the talks until the US blockade of its oil ports was lifted, a clear sanctions waiver on oil sales was in place and half of its estimated $24bn (£18bn) in overseas assets were unfrozen and returned to Tehran. Most of those goals have been achieved although the US treasury did not issue a formal sanctions waiver on Sunday.