트럼프의 이란 전쟁, 1320억 달러 비용과 3,375명 사망으로 실패
Trump, Iran and the Denial of Defeat - Time Magazine
미국과 이란 간의 합의가 혼합적인 신호를 보이고 있지만, 지opolitical 불확실성이 시장 감정에 부담이 되고 있습니다.
핵심 요약
트럼프의 이란 전쟁은 1320억 달러의 비용과 3,375명의 사망자를 내며 실패로 끝났습니다.
핵심요약
- 13명의 미국 군인과 3,375명의 이란 인명 피해 발생
- 175명의 어린이 사망한 미국 토마호크 미사일 공격
- 총 비용 1320억 달러, 오바마케어 비용의 2배
- 이란의 미사일 발사대와 우라늄 보유 권리 유지
- 3000억 달러 규모의 이란 재건 자금 약속
도입
트럼프 대통령의 이란 전쟁은 전략적 목표 달성에 실패한 채 막대한 인적, 재정적 비용을 초래했습니다. 이란과의 협정은 미국 내외에서 광범위한 비판을 받고 있으며, 트럼프 대통령의 정치적 후폭풍이 우려됩니다. 투자자들은 이란 관련 산업의 변동성과 지정학적 리스크에 주목해야 합니다.
본문 1: 미사일 발사대와 우라늄 보유 권리 유지의 의미
초기 협정은 이란의 미사일 발사대와 우라늄 보유 권리를 그대로 유지했습니다. 이는 이란의 군사적 위협이 지속될 가능성을 시사하며, 중동 지역의 불안정성을 고조시킬 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 방어 산업과 에너지 섹터의 변동성에 대비해야 합니다. 이란의 군사적 위협이 지속될 경우, 사우디아라비아와 이스라엘을 포함한 주변국과의 군사적 긴장이 고조될 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 이란 재건 자금 3000억 달러의 경제적 영향
이란에 대한 3000억 달러 규모의 재건 자금 약속은 이란 경제의 회복과 함께 인프라 및 에너지 산업의 성장 가능성을 열었습니다. 그러나 이 자금이 테러 조직의 자금원으로 유입될 가능성도 있습니다. 투자자들은 이란 관련 산업의 변동성과 리스크를 신중하게 평가해야 합니다. 또한, 이란의 경제 회복이 주변국과의 경쟁 관계에 미치는 영향도 고려해야 합니다.
본문 3: 트럼프 대통령의 정치적 후폭풍
트럼프 대통령은 이란 전쟁의 실패를 부인했지만, 민주당 의원들의 비판이 거세지고 있습니다. 이는 트럼프 대통령의 정치적 영향력 약화로 이어질 수 있으며, 2024년 대통령 선거에 미칠 영향도 주목됩니다. 투자자들은 미국 정치의 변동성과 관련 산업의 리스크를 신중하게 평가해야 합니다.
결론
트럼프 대통령의 이란 전쟁은 전략적 목표 달성에 실패한 채 막대한 비용을 초래했습니다. 이란과의 협정은 중동 지역의 불안정성과 방어 산업의 변동성을 고조시킬 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이란 관련 산업의 리스크를 신중하게 평가하고, 미국 정치의 변동성과 지정학적 리스크에 대비해야 합니다.
Original Article
Trump, Iran and the Denial of Defeat - Time Magazine
The golden chariot of fate has often carried President Donald Trump to safer shores when financial, business, political or legal failures trapped him in a corner. But he has hit a wall with his war against Iran, stymied by his inability to secure the “unconditional Iranian surrender” he promised at the outset of the campaign.
Was the war worth the cost? Thirteen American soldiers lost their lives; 3,375 Iranians were killed, including 175 people, mostly children , who died in a US Tomahawk missile strike on a girls’ school. And it cost the American taxpayers $132 billion—twice the cost of all of Obamacare ! Trump has little to show for it. The initial agreement between the United States and Iran, mediated primarily by Pakistan, offers Iran sanctions relief, a promise of reconstruction funds, and the potential to collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz.
In our new book, Trump’s Ten Commandments , we reveal the rhetorical weapons Trump deploys to deflect blame and escape responsibility for a military campaign that, by most measures, failed well short of its stated objectives. The signing of the initial agreement between Washington and Tehran by Trump left unaddressed the massive arsenal of intact Iranian missile launchers, permitted the continued Iranian possession of enriched uranium, granted Iran the right to levy passage fees in the Strait of Hormuz.
The agreement did nothing to stop Iran from continuing funding its proxy terrorists—Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah—while promising to work with regional partners to raise reconstruction funds of $300 billion for Iran. And Trump left the repressive, militarist theocratic Iranian regime intact, a combination widely seen as a stunning American capitulation. However, Trump invariably denies all setbacks from bankruptcies and election losses to failures in courtrooms and on battlefields.
President Trump has received widespread scorn from not just Democratic Congressional leaders such as Hakim Jefferies, Jack Reed, and Seth Moulton, but also from a wide array of Republican Senate leaders, from Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz to Roger Wicker, Bill Cassidy, and John Thune.
This bipartisan American condemnation mirrored a rare consensus across Israel’s political spectrum. From the far-right flanks of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to the leadership of the center-left opposition, Israeli political leaders are fiercely condemning the 14-point deal as a catastrophic capitulation that compromises the nation’s security, leaving Iran emboldened and taking the restraints off its regional terrorist proxies.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid protested loudly that Israel is “not a vassal state,” calling the deal as “bad for Israel, bad for the region, [and] bad for the citizens of Iran.” But perhaps should Israel have seen it coming.
Roy Cohn, the legendary fixer for Fred Trump, the president’s father, advised: “No matter what happens, you claim victory and never admit defeat.” As we have written previously, nobody should be surprised by Trump’s flip-flopping. In our book, Trump’s Ten Commandments , we predicted exactly this outcome, because it fits perfectly with Trump’s long-established patterns of behaviour. And here is how.
Trump and the fluidity of friends, foils, and foes
What critics sometimes misinterpret as inexplicable and sudden shifts, actually reflects a core tenet of Trump’s strategy: he has no permanent loyalty to anyone or anything. By rapidly substituting the influence of interventionist hardliners with proponents of military restraint, Trump ensures he is never boxed into a single course of action. He navigates politics entirely free from entrenched allegiances or rigid doctrines. For him, avoiding a fixed compass in order to preserve absolute leverage, maximum flexibility and endless choices is the very cornerstone of Trumpian scheming.
The flips can be vertiginous to behold. Trump went from denouncing Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, as “ unacceptable” and a “lightweight ” to heaping him with praise, calling him " professional " and a man of " very good reputation ," insisting “ there’s a bravery there ,” describing him as “ more rational ,” and declaring that he would be “ honored ” to speak with him.
Trump went from championing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a hero deserving of a pardon to reportedly using expletives to describe him. He has touted the potential for a bright future for Iran while castigating hardline supporters of Israel as “stupid” and representative of only “10 percent of the people.” For Trump, these flips represent a feature, not a bug.
No bull market, no bear market but a Trump market
Instead of securing freedom for Iran’s oppressed population, seizing its enriched uranium, or the dismantling Iranian missile capabilities and its proxy terrorist groups, Trump shifted the goalposts.
His primary yardstick for measuring success has always been money, and America has never had a president more minutely attuned to financial markets and more willing to drive huge swings in those markets through his words and actions.
As we argued earlier, we are not living in a bull market or a bear market but a Trump market. With oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel and strategic reserves dwindling, Trump was feeling the financial pressure to make a deal, a pressure he himself acknowledged, one that outweighed all other considerations. Indeed, the very first words that Trump uttered upon signing the initial agreement at the Palace of Versailles were telling: “Oil down, Stocks up.”
Rewriting History Through the Sleeper Effect
Trump always declares victory and relentlessly repeats that narrative, regardless of the facts or the outcome, in any and every situation. That relentless repetition, until it becomes conventionally accepted as a truth, is known as the “sleeper effect.”
In the case of Iran, Trump declared victory even though virtually every expert agrees that nearly of all his stated objectives, as he himself laid out at the beginning of the conflict, were unmet, even as he claims to have accomplished each and every goal.
There was no “unconditional surrender” and no “regime change,” even though Trump insists he achieved both. He had vowed to “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground,” and ensure that Iran’s terrorist proxies “ can no longer ” destabilize the region or the world, and to remove enriched uranium from Iran.
None of that has come to pass. Nevertheless, Trump will continue declaring himself the winner, repeating the message relentlessly, as he always does.
The tribal chieftain of American power
Trump has always centralized all power in his own hands, leaving competing factions to vie for his blessings, much like an old-fashioned tribal chieftain. This dynamic gives Trump maximum flexibility to pivot between completely opposite factions with seemingly irreconcilable perspectives.
Trump has conspicuously made Vice President JD Vance the public face of the new Iran deal, even declaring that “if it doesn’t work out , I’m blaming JD.” It is a characteristically Trumpian move, given that Vance has long led the faction most inclined to pursue a negotiated settlement with Iran.
By contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who reportedly opposed the deal and wished to continue pressuring Iran militarily, has said little publicly in defense of—or even in praise of—the deal. Rubio has maintained a carefully studied stone face at public appearances.
The wall of sound: Trump’s perpetual distraction machine
Trump’s perpetual noise machine is an ever-spinning engine of new headlines, intentionally outrageous statements, and sudden moves designed to overwhelm, scatter, and redirect public attention—especially when he is intent on burying bad news.
Through sheer tenacity and frenetic activity, Trump bends the news cycle to his will and reshape the public narrative. He disorients and exhausts opponents while preventing any single story from dominating the narrative long enough to inflict lasting political damage.
Trump is already trying to pivot public attention toward other issues, with Truth Social posts on everything from algae in the Reflecting Pool to GOP primary endorsements, potential denuclearization talks with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, the Save America Act, and Cuba—all in the 48 hours since the initial agreement with Iran was signed. He will almost assuredly continue to manufacture fresh controversies to divert attention from the deal’s shortcomings.
Across all of these dimensions, Trump’s Ten Commandments reveals and makes clear that Trump’s Iran deal was anything but surprising, with his seemingly dizzying flip-flops representing merely another entry in a long catalogue of Trump’s well-documented modus operandi.