핵심요약

• 새로운 제재는 해운, 석유, 암호화폐, 금, 항공 관련 거래를 촉진하는 국제 실체를 목표로 합니다.
• 재무부는 이란이 '혼자 남을 때까지' 경제적 파이프라인을 끊겠다는 '경제적 맹공격'을 예고했습니다.
• 다수의 관할권에서 거의 60개의 기업, 개인, 선박에 대한 제재가 발표되었습니다.
• 이란 경제부는 경제 전쟁에 대비하며 보복할 준비가 되어 있다고 대응했습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미국 재무부가 이란에 대해 예고한 새로운 경제 제재의 구체적인 범위와 그 배경을 다룹니다. 이는 단순한 외교적 압박을 넘어, 글로벌 금융 시스템과 에너지 공급망에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 강력한 경제적 조치입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 제재가 국제 무역 흐름, 자산 시장, 그리고 지정학적 리스크에 미치는 파급 효과를 면밀히 분석해야 합니다. 특히, 미국이 주도하는 제재가 글로벌 경제 질서에 어떤 변화를 초래할지 예측하는 것이 중요합니다.

본문 1: 제재의 범위와 메커니즘

재무부 장관 베센트는 이란을 '고립'시키기 위해 제재의 대상을 국제적 실체들로 확대했습니다. 제재의 주요 대상은 해운, 석유, 암호화폐, 금, 항공 분야에서 이란의 거래를 용이하게 하는 국제 주체들입니다. 이는 단순히 이란 정부를 겨냥하는 것이 아니라, 이란의 경제적 활동을 지원하는 전 세계 금융 및 물류 채널을 차단하려는 전략입니다. 이러한 접근 방식은 제재의 효과를 극대화하기 위해 제재 대상이 이란과 직접적인 관계가 없더라도 관련성이 있는 제3국 기업들을 포함하는 것을 의미합니다. 특히, 다수의 관할권에 걸쳐 60개의 기업, 개인, 선박에 대한 제재가 발표된 것은 제재의 집행 범위가 매우 광범위하며 국제적인 협력을 요구한다는 점을 시사합니다. 이는 제재가 특정 국가에 대한 일방적인 조치를 넘어, 글로벌 경제 시스템 전반에 걸친 연쇄적인 파급 효과를 유발할 수 있음을 의미합니다.

본문 2: 지정학적 리스크와 보복 가능성

미국이 추진하는 이러한 '경제적 맹공격'은 이란과 제재를 받는 국가들 간의 지정학적 긴장을 심화시킬 가능성이 높습니다. 이란 측은 이러한 경제적 압박에 대해 강하게 반응하며 '경제 전쟁'에 대비하고 있음을 분명히 했습니다. 이란 경제부 장관은 미국이 경제 채널을 차단하는 것이 쉽지 않으며 이란이 보복할 것이라고 경고했습니다. 이러한 보복 가능성은 에너지 시장의 불안정성 증가, 국제 무역로의 재편, 그리고 금융 제재의 회피 전략 개발 등 다양한 형태로 나타날 수 있습니다. 특히, 중국과 같은 주요 무역 파트너들이 미국의 일방적 제재에 어떻게 대응할지에 따라 글로벌 공급망의 안정성이 크게 흔들릴 수 있습니다. 제재의 효과를 측정하고 관리하는 것이 향후 미국의 외교적 전략에 있어 중요한 과제가 될 것입니다.

본문 3: 시장 반응 및 장기 전망

베센트 장관의 발언에 대해 시장은 큰 반응을 보이지 않았으며, 이는 제재가 이미 시장에 어느 정도 반영되었거나 혹은 향후 실제적인 행동에 대한 불확실성이 존재하기 때문으로 분석됩니다. 그러나 장기적으로 볼 때, 이러한 다각적인 경제적 압박은 이란의 경제적 회복 능력과 국제 사회의 제재 준수 의지에 중대한 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 향후 관찰해야 할 핵심 지표는 제재 대상 기업들의 글로벌 활동 변화와 이란 및 주요 무역 파트너들의 보복 조치 여부입니다. 이러한 경제적 전쟁의 결과는 단기적인 시장 변동성뿐만 아니라 장기적인 국제 경제 질서의 재편이라는 더 큰 차원의 의미를 가집니다.

결론

미국의 새로운 제재 위협은 이란을 국제 경제 시스템에서 고립시키려는 강력한 의지를 반영하며, 이는 글로벌 경제 질서에 중대한 변수로 작용할 것입니다. 향후 상황은 미국과 이란 간의 대화 채널, 그리고 제재를 받는 국가들의 대응에 달려 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크와 경제적 연쇄 반응을 지속적으로 모니터링하며 잠재적인 시장 위험을 평가해야 할 것입니다. 특히, 에너지 및 금융 자산 시장의 변동성에 주목해야 합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPakFvUTN2Rk5LWkFMT2ZVQXVXcVZTbzRRZ1JXa2loVmxOWnQxZTNhRHpKb3p5NmNwTUY2UTY1dVItZW4zZnlkVk5qUDBQRUxmUkNpYkZZaC1RV1UxMlhqVmRHRy1fV2F4VW5NaDhaVllMUzc3MkVHS3g3b1hNRnVPX2xlVGNtWEE?oc=5

Bessent threatens new Iran secondary sanctions, says Trump is asking world leaders to cooperate - NBC News

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for a wave of new sanctions Monday aimed at further isolating Iran, after threatening the Islamic Republic with “an economic D-Day.” The sanctions will target international entities engaged in facilitating Iranian trade related to shipping, oil, crypto, gold and aviation. Bessent said President Donald Trump was making phone calls to world leaders with “specific requests” to cease trading with the Iranian regime. Bessent said the U.S. was launching an “economic onslaught” against Iran’s financial connections “around the globe” in order to “sever every economic pipeline” used by Iran “until Tehran stands alone.” Treasury announced Monday it is sanctioning nearly 60 corporations, individuals and vessels in multiple jurisdictions that it says enable the Iranian regime’s “recklessness.” That list includes multiple Chinese nationals. China has said it is illegal for its citizens to comply with unilateral U.S. sanctions. Bessent said the U.S. was engaging in “quiet diplomacy” with Iranian trade partners to warn them of the consequences for continuing to trade with Tehran. Any entity that facilitates money laundering on behalf of Iran will be removed from the U.S. dollar system, he said. “No one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions,” Bessent said, adding there was now a “cure period” for nations to end the targeted relations with Iran. Yet Bessent did not lay out any immediate concrete actions against other countries. Markets showed little reaction to Bessent’s remarks. Iranian officials downplayed the economic threat. “You will fail this time too,” Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said in response to Bessent’s comments, according to the semiofficial Fars news agency, and added, “The government is fully prepared for this economic war.” Madanizadeh said that it would not be easy to cut the country off from global economic channels and that Iran would retaliate, according to the semiofficial ISNA news agency. “If they take any action, they should expect an attack from us,” he said, according to ISNA. Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that the U.S. must stop trying to bully Iran. “America must correct its tone and approach in dealing with Iran, because relying on force and bullying will only complicate the process,” he said, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency. “Our nation, relying on its solidarity, will overcome any pressure and threats.” Pezeshkian made the comments during a meeting on Monday with Field Marshal Asim Munir, the army chief of Pakistan, a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran, according to Tasnim. After six months of kinetic combat and a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration has few remaining levers it can use to convince Iran’s major trading partners to materially reduce their economic ties, said Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute. The White House “seems to think that this announcement in and of itself will cause countries to sever relations with Iran absent any follow-up, which I think is highly unlikely,” Eyre told NBC News. The U.S. has for decades imposed direct sanctions on Iran and businesses involved in prohibited activities like weapons procurement. But Iran has, in many cases, successfully evaded the sanctions by setting up new front companies. Bessent promised Sunday to launch “the single greatest financial offensive ever” in an op-ed in the Financial Times. “The world should understand that our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains the tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone,” he wrote, adding that any country partnering with Iran would also be financially isolated. Monday’s actions are designed to target “secondary” countries whose trade and business relations still benefit Iran. Ahead of the announcement, the United Arab Emirates, a close U.S. ally whose leadership has forged close ties with the Trump administration, announced it was ending all trade relations with Iran. Experts say the success of Bessent’s announcement will hinge on whether Iran’s most powerful trading partners — China, India and Russia — decide the U.S. threats are credible. “If you’re a country like Russia or China, you see Iran as ally, and you’re not just going to suddenly stop trading with them — that damages Moscow’s credibility in eyes of their friends around the world,” said Andrew Gawthrope, a university lecturer at the University of Leiden specializing in U.S. foreign policy. “There’s just not much the U.S. can do to these countries to make them go along with this,” he said. It’s been nearly six months since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on the premise of preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The U.S. has racked up its own costs. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last month that the war has cost the U.S. $37.5 billion, though estimates put the all-in economic impact at as much as $150 billion. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told NBC News last month he estimated the war has cost the average U.S. household more than $1,200 in higher energy and grocery costs alone. Despite the new economic measures announced Monday, Hegseth did not rule out further military action. “If we need to use kinetic strikes, we’ll use them. If Iran is foolish enough to overplay their hand or mess with the American military, we’ll do what we need to do,” Hegseth told reporters Monday. “But economic pressure, we know, hurts them the most right now.” “By no means are we foreclosing using kinetic strikes anywhere in the Strait of Hormuz or around Iran.” The war has also become a political liability for Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections, with his approval rating dropping to its lowest level of either of his presidential terms. Economists say that in addition to higher gas prices, the war has also helped contribute to the current turmoil in the bond market that’s led to extraordinary intervention by the Treasury Department. While Bessent was speaking Monday, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament who until recently had been leading Iran’s negotiation team to end the war, took to X. “Americans know that no one buys their bombast; the United States is not in an economic position to further restrict its relations with other countries,” he wrote. “Iran’s trading partners, both in the media and through messages sent to us, have made it clear that they don’t take these statements into account anywhere.” Ahead of the speech, the country’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also posted on X to question whether Bessent’s plan was “an admission of America’s defeat?” Referencing previous American claims that Iran’s military capabilities had been destroyed, he said, “Dealing with this very Iran has required the ‘largest financial offensive in history’ and the mobilization of ‘all of America’s institutions and authorities.’” The head of Iran’s Central Bank, Abdolnaser Hemmati, told the semiofficial Tasnim news agency that the U.S. had “done everything it could in terms of sanctions up to now and the recent claims do not introduce any new restrictions or additional pressure.” Iran had been anticipating “difficult conditions” since the war began in February “and began stockpiling foreign currency,” he said in comments that were published ahead of Bessent’s announcement. This had enabled the country “to give a firm commitment that we would provide the foreign currency needed for essential goods and medicine,” he said. In Tehran’s sprawling Grand Bazaar, long a center of conservatism in Iranian politics and still an economic force within the country, there was a heavy police presence and some expressed frustration at the value of Iran’s currency, the rial. With gas prices on the rise and long lines reported at some gas stations, authorities in the country appeared concerned that protests could break out. Violent demonstrations left thousands dead in January and thousands were arrested by the country’s hard-line regime after people took to the streets to call for an end to the country’s theocratic rule. While President Donald Trump hoped for people to rise up against the country’s hard-line rulers early on in the war, Iran’s authoritarian government appears to have tightened its grip on power since the start of the war. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed at the start of the war along with several other senior officials. Now, his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be equally hard-line, as he has elevated a group of veteran hard-liners from the country’s security and military establishment.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPakFvUTN2Rk5LWkFMT2ZVQXVXcVZTbzRRZ1JXa2loVmxOWnQxZTNhRHpKb3p5NmNwTUY2UTY1dVItZW4zZnlkVk5qUDBQRUxmUkNpYkZZaC1RV1UxMlhqVmRHRy1fV2F4VW5NaDhaVllMUzc3MkVHS3g3b1hNRnVPX2xlVGNtWEE?oc=5