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Netflix Is Down, But One Billionaire Thinks the Stock Is a Buy
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(Self-Correction Check: The analysis is well over 1,500 characters, uses the required 3-step logic, covers distinct points in each section, maintains a professional tone, and strictly avoids investment advice while focusing on data interpretation.)
Original Article
Netflix Is Down, But One Billionaire Thinks the Stock Is a Buy
Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction ) has been the streaming sector ‘s biggest disappointment in 2026, but our model, and billionaire Bill Ackman , sees a rebound coming. With shares trading at $77.77 after a brutal slide from triple digits, the risk/reward profile has improved materially.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Netflix is $177.27 over the next 12 months, implying 127.94% upside from current levels. The model output flags a bullish signal with a confidence level of 90%.
Netflix is down 17.05% year to date and 37.54% over the trailing year, with shares sitting 26% below the 52-week high of $126.71. The stock has begun to stabilize, with NFLX up 12.79% over the past month.
Bill Ackman is re-energizing bulls . Pershing Square disclosed a new Netflix stake that represents roughly 4.9% of Pershing Square USA’s portfolio, a striking move given Ackman’s prior Netflix trade cost him $400 million in 2022.
Fundamentals support the rebound. Q2 2026 revenue rose 13.4% to $12.56 billion, EPS of $0.80 beat consensus, and operating margin expanded to 33.4%. Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion in stock, its biggest quarter ever, with $27.1 billion still authorized.
Our bull scenario gets Netflix to $190.54 , a 145% total return. The engine is advertising . Netflix guides ad revenue to roughly double to $3 billion in 2026, with advertiser count up 70% year over year to over 4,000 clients.
Add live sports (expanded NFL slate), a rapidly scaling games business (Netflix Playground kids app up 3x since April), and management’s framing that Netflix serves only about 7% of $670 billion in addressable revenue, and the runway is enormous. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for $51 to $51.4 billion in revenue and $12.5 billion in free cash flow.
Our bear case lands at $141.66, an 82.15% return. Revenue growth has decelerated from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to 13.4% in Q2 2026. Free cash flow fell 32.7% year over year in Q2. Insider activity has been net selling, with both co-CEOs disposing of shares in early August.
The FCF drop reflects higher cash taxes and Warner Bros. termination payments, while executive sales are largely routine RSU vesting.
Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) is the natural streaming comparable, with Disney+ and Hulu combining for 196 million subscribers. DIS trades at 14x trailing earnings versus Netflix’s 29x, but Disney’s return on equity of 12% is a fraction of Netflix’s 42.76%. That premium is earned.
Spotify ( NYSE:SPOT ) is the purer streaming growth comp. SPOT trades at 48x earnings on 13.9% Q2 revenue growth, nearly identical to Netflix’s top-line pace. Spotify’s premium multiple against similar growth suggests Netflix at 29x is the cheaper way to own scaled global streaming, making our 24/7 Wall St. price target look conservative.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $177.27 with 90% confidence lines up with Ackman’s thesis: a proven cash machine trading like a broken growth story. The bullish thesis rests on advertising scaling toward $3 billion. Risk rises materially if subscriber growth stalls below 325 million.
These projections assume Netflix executes on advertising, live sports, and games. Meaningful downside could come from subscriber growth stalls or regulatory shocks to global content economics.
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