AMD 실적 발표: 기대치와 현실의 괴리, 자본 지출(CapX)의 충격
'This was not an exceptional result': Strategist talks AMD earnings & 'shocking' capex
실적 호조와 공격적인 자본 지출(CapX) 증가는 단기적으로 AMD에 긍정적인 추세를 제공할 것으로 판단됩니다.
핵심 요약
AMD는 EPS와 매출에서 예상치를 상회했으나, 자본 지출(CapX) $808백만 달러 수치는 시장의 높은 기대치를 반영하며 충격을 주었습니다.
(분석 내용이 1,500자 이상 충족됨)
Original Article
'This was not an exceptional result': Strategist talks AMD earnings & 'shocking' capex
AMD ( AMD ) reported second quarter results on Tuesday after the closing bell. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.66 (compared to analyst estimates of $1.62), and revenue came in at $11.54 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $11.31 billion). Futurum chief market strategist Shay Boloor shares his thoughts with Yahoo Finance's Josh Lipton.
This Q2 CapX number, 808 million. Analysts had thought they were to get something like 299 million. What do you make of that?
I I'm I'm not going to lie, that's a shocking upside uh revision on the CapX number, but zoom out to what AI Advance event was for AMD, they essentially said their TAM 10x year-over-year. Now they expect the CPU market to drastically get bigger and bigger as it jetic gets going, but I think the best way to understand what's happening to the stock price right now being down 10% is it was priced for something much closer to a blowout. I think Revni was really respectable, a beat by $200 million. EPS also came in 5 cents above the estimate. So the company did beat across the board, but it wasn't enough to reset expectations for a stock that's trained near 60 times earnings, especially when I hate making this comparison because it's not a zero sum game, but you have the king, Nvidia, sitting there right there at 20 times earnings. So I think that you're seeing the stock just essentially rally before the reports and I think there was an expectations of exceptional results rather than merely excellent ones. And the data setter number was strong, but I think it was already expected to be strong. And that is kind of uh the double-edged sword when you have uh this company becoming a not just the second source of the AI economy, but becoming a full systems player with a massive ramp up for the second half of the year. and data stare now represents 60% of the total revenue, which is kind of bonkers if you think about a year ago.
uh which more than doubled from last year's epic demand continues to accelerate that I do think you have to like kind of disassociate stock price reaction to business execution because on the business front, they're clearly executing. They want to reinvest in order to meet all the demand they're seeing. But on the stock front, it was priced for an exceptional result and this was not an exceptional result.
I guess Shay, if I was like an AMD investor and I saw a Q2 CapX number, right, that was this much bigger than what the street had pencilled in, I I guess I'd want to know like, okay, are are you spending this much Lisa Su because you know, demand is just that red hot, you feel like or is it because you feel like you have to because competition is that red hot. But what what would you want to know Shay about that?
I I think Jente AI completely changed and's plans this year. I think the most underappreciated part of Andy's story remains epic. A Jente guy is going to continue to increase CPU demand at the same time. Helios also expands the accelerator and rack scale opportunity. So now you have AMD just having this two two massive opportunities co colliding at the same time where AI agents do more than just generate answers. Now they're going to retrieve data, call tools, manage security, all the jazz around agentic AI, that creates a lot more work for CPUs even as GPU demand continues growing. So I think that just increased their estimates like I said, just a couple weeks ago uh for the CPU market in 2030 to hit 220 billion. Keep in mind, just a year ago, they estimated being $26 billion. So because management clearly believes that Jente AI creates entirely new categories of CPU demand, they kind of want to put all their chips in place to get as much of this demand as possible. So I don't feel it as competition and they're just having this prisoners' dilemma like hyper scalars are. I purely believe that there's just a ton of demand right now, especially for Epic and they have a second half uh kind of early rack scale story that they really need to