OECD, 중동 갈등으로 영국 경제성장률 0.7% 전망
Middle East conflict will damage UK’s economy ‘more than any other’ - The Guardian
OECD가 중동 갈등으로 인해 영국의 성장 전망을 하향 조정하면서 경제적 부담이 예상됩니다. 이는 단기적으로 영국 경제에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다.
핵심 요약
OECD는 중동 갈등으로 인해 영국 경제가 올해 0.7% 성장할 전망이라고 발표했습니다.
핵심요약
- 영국 경제 성장률이 0.7%로 하향 조정되며, 2026년 전망치인 1.2%에서 0.5 퍼센트 포인트 감소
- 프랑스, 독일, 이탈리아는 0.2 퍼센트 포인트 감소로 그 영향을 덜 받을 것으로 예상
- 글로벌 경제 성장률이 2027년에 3.1%에서 3%로 하향 조정
- 중동 갈등으로 인한 에너지 가격 상승이 인플레이션과 성장률에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 전망
도입
중동 갈등이 영국 경제에 미치는 영향이 다른 산업국가보다 더 심할 것이라는 OECD의 분석은 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 특히 영국은 국제 무역과 에너지 수입에 의존하는 구조적 약점이 있으며, 이는 장기적인 경제 성장에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크를 고려하여 포트폴리오를 재조정할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 1: 중동 갈등의 영국 경제에 미치는 영향
OECD는 중동 갈등으로 인해 영국 경제 성장이 0.7%로 하향 조정될 전망이라고 발표했습니다. 이는 2026년 전망치인 1.2%에서 0.5 퍼센트 포인트 감소한 수치로, 다른 유럽 국가들과 비교해도 더 큰 영향을 받을 것으로 예상됩니다. 영국은 에너지 수입에 의존하는 구조적 약점이 있으며, 이는 인플레이션과 성장률에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 리스크를 고려하여 에너지 관련 주식에 대한 노출을 조정할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 2: 글로벌 경제 성장률의 하향 조정
글로벌 경제 성장률도 2027년에 3.1%에서 3%로 하향 조정되었습니다. 이는 중동 갈등으로 인한 에너지 가격 상승이 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 반영한 수치로, 장기적인 성장 전망에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 글로벌 경제 성장의 하향 조정이 특정 산업이나 국가에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 포트폴리오를 재조정할 필요가 있습니다.
결론
중동 갈등이 영국 경제에 미치는 영향은 다른 산업국가보다 더 심할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 특히 영국은 에너지 수입에 의존하는 구조적 약점이 있으며, 이는 장기적인 경제 성장에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 리스크를 고려하여 포트폴리오를 재조정할 필요가 있으며, 글로벌 경제 성장의 하향 조정이 특정 산업이나 국가에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다.
Original Article
Middle East conflict will damage UK’s economy ‘more than any other’ - The Guardian
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says UK economy will grow by just 0.7% this year
The conflict in the Middle East will damage the UK’s economy more than any other industrialised nation, according to analysis by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which warned over rising inflation.
In the first major assessment by a leading international thinktank of the economic impact from the attack on Iran, the OECD said the UK economy would grow by just 0.7% this year, compared with its last forecast , made in December, of 1.2% for 2026.
Illustrating the UK’s dependence on international trade and imports of fuel, the OECD said it had downgraded the UK’s growth in 2026 because it was likely to suffer higher inflation than previously expected.
The forecast 0.5 percentage point cut in UK growth compares with expectations of a much more limited reduction in growth for France, Germany and Italy, which were more insulated from spiralling energy prices and are all expected to suffer a more modest hit to growth of 0.2 percentage points.
Noting a weakening of the UK jobs market and a contraction in business investment towards the end of 2025, the OECD attributed the downgrade to a lack of momentum going into 2026 as well as the shock from rising oil and gas prices as a result of the US-Israel attacks on Iran.
The OECD said the evolving conflict in the Middle East would test the resilience of the global economy, which it said would be unaffected by the spike in oil prices if they began to moderate in the summer.
Average global growth was still on track to be 2.9%, as predicted in the last OECD outlook in December. The aftershocks would cut a forecast for 2027 from 3.1% to 3%.
“The breadth and duration of the conflict are very uncertain, but a prolonged period of higher energy prices will add markedly to business costs and raise consumer price inflation, with adverse consequences for growth,” it said.
Despite concerns over the cost to US consumers of Donald Trump’s war on Iran, the Paris-based organisation said the American economy was likely to grow at a faster rate than previously thought after a ruling by the US supreme court reduced import tariffs and the Iran conflict increased the demand for US oil.
The US is forecast to grow by 2% in 2026, up from the 1.7% forecast in December.
However, the global economy is in peril from the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the war, it said, which means there is “a significant downside risk to the outlook [from] persistent disruptions to exports from the Middle East that raise energy prices even further than assumed and aggravate shortages of key commodities.
“Such a scenario, or lower than expected returns from artificial intelligence (AI) investment, could also trigger more extensive repricing in financial markets, weakening demand and raising financial stability risks,” it added.
The US and Israel began attacks on Iran almost four weeks ago, sending oil prices soaring from an average of about $60 a barrel in January to about $100 this week.
Prices climbed sharply after Iran effectively closed the strait of Hormuz – the crucial shipping chokepoint through which travels about 20% of the world’s oil production.
The OECD said that, prior to the conflict, “global growth remained resilient, with activity boosted by strong AI-related investment and production, and supportive financial and fiscal conditions”.
Like the UK, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico, the US will be among the worst hit by rising fuel prices at the pumps, hitting household incomes and business profits, though the broader economy will be largely unscathed.
But the decision by the US supreme court to cut US tariffs and Washington’s status as a net exporter of oil and gas meant the US economy would improve overall this year, expanding by 2%, up from 1.7% in the December forecast.
A decline in AI investments next year will be the main reason the US economy could lose momentum, the report said.
The US economy will grow by just 1.7% in 2027, down 0.2 percentage points on the December forecast, while the UK and much of Europe will stage a recovery.
Officials at the OECD said the projections were conditional “on a technical assumption that the current extent of energy market disruption moderates over time, with oil, gas and fertiliser prices declining gradually from mid-2026 onwards.
“On the upside, a surprisingly resilient business sector, an earlier-than-assumed resolution of the conflict in the Middle East that lowers energy prices, or broadening investment in artificial intelligence technologies that yields stronger productivity gains could push growth higher,” it added.
Rachel Reeves said the war in Iran meant she would need to go “further to build a stronger, more secure economy”.
The UK chancellor said: “The war in the Middle East is not one that we started, nor is it a war that we have joined. But it is a war that will have an impact on our country.”
In response, the government plans to hand more powers to regional mayors, embrace AI and innovation, and establish a closer relationship with the EU to make the UK economy more resilient, she said.